We're going to have our monthly 2012 poll out Friday but here are some observations on the Republican possibles:
-There continues to be no evidence of any backlash for Mike Huckabee in the wake of the Washington cop killings. His favorability is at 35/29, which is a seven point net improvement from 36/37 in mid-November. He continues to poll the best of the leading GOP candidates being mentioned for 2012.
-As much as the political climate has turned in a Republican direction over the last year voters don't really like Sarah Palin any more than they did ten months ago. In March of 2009 her favorability was at 39/50. Now it's 42/51. Yesterday's election could be seen as an indication that Republicans do better when they nominate un-Palinlike candidates. We'll see if they get the memo.
Sarah's numbers will rise now that she will be on fox 24/7. Now that will not improve her qualification, but it will improve her favorables.
ReplyDeletethe only thing that can improve sarah palin's qualification number is to do really well in the 2012 republican primary debates.
Sarah's numbers will improve with fair weather independents if she is seen as a winner.
with Palin,
If she can win Iowa. She can beat obama.
simple as that.
Brown was more Palin-like than most Republican candidates. He campaigned on opposition to detainee trials, health reform, and cap and trade and for lower debt, tax cuts, school choice, and tougher immigration laws. While Brown has a moderate voting record and isn't a flame thrower he ran way to the right with his campaign.
ReplyDeleteWho did you poll...the koolaide drinking media who attacks her for anything and everything?
ReplyDeletePalin is not unpopular with the American public. Check out her book sales and the amount of people who show up for the signings.
The UK Telegraph ranked her as #4 in the Top 100 Most Influential US Conservatives.
You need some new poll takers!
Can you please do a Primary Poll on Romney,Huck,Palin,Newt,Pawlenty,Rudy.
ReplyDeleteYou should poll Bayh vs. Pence for the Senate race this year. That result should give a good idea of the depth of the trouble Dems are in this year.
ReplyDeleteBy the way.. I appreciate your polling. We do not agree on policy much, but you are a stand-up pollster. Thanks.
ReplyDeletePPP has always been the laughing stock of poll jokes. The only way the Huckster could be ahead of an amoeba is because PPP polled 1000 people (alive or dead) who live in his district and who most likely don't vote. What a joke.
ReplyDeleteChristy AKReport: Anything is simple in one's imagination. Sarah was on a media-focused book report, she spent an entire week on FOX prior to her being hired and she has now spent two weeks as an "analyst" discussing herself. If you love Palin, you cannot see enough of her; if you are looking for substance, she is not the way to go. Among FOX viewers, she already has curried the favorability of all she is going to get; she isn't going to convince anyone else at this time.
ReplyDeleteThe difference with Huckabee was that he needed to define himself with conservatives (since the conservative blogs were doing a hatchet job on him) and his exposure on FOX gave him that media platform for such successful definition. Palin already had the conservative blogs on her side, so this does nothing for her.
I do agree, however, it all depends on the debates. Unlike you, however, I think Huckabee has the best chance in Iowa -- not to mention the debates -- he wowed them last time, and his likeability, eloquence, debating skills and social conservative values have remained constant.
I highly disagree Palin's message is fine and Brown used many of her lines during his campaign spots.
ReplyDeleteFighting against the "Machine" or the "Establishment" No more politics as usual.
Palin's problem is that she still hasn't shown that she has the intellectual depth to be a presidential candidate for the republican party.
"Republicans do better nominating....unPlain like"
ReplyDeleteOh COME ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Geeze, this is MASSA-FREAKEN-CHUSETTS we're talking about here. The most liberal state in the country. Of course a less social conservative candidate will do better. It's like going out of your way to say Democrats tend to do better when they nominate unObama like candidates in Texas. Well Duh!
@4:15
ReplyDeletePalin is popular among hard-core conservatives, but disliked by everyone else. Palin is unlike Brown in the fact that she can't appeal to independents whatsoever.
My guess is Romney is slightly ahead of Huckabee with Palin a distant 3rd.
ReplyDeleteWith the Brown victory in Romney's Corner, I would expect his numbers to rise even more in February.
BOSMAN
Great News, again Huckabee tops another Poll, does not matter if its Gallup, CNN, or Rasmussen. Hucks always at top. I know PPP is one of the most reliable pollsters. Keep up the good work.
ReplyDeleteThe Public knows when it comes to a stand up guy who can Beat Obummer. Huck is the guy. Cant wait to see Huck Own Obama in a debate.! Huck 12.
I like Palin, but the more she talks the more I know she is not ready for Potus. Fox was a bad move for that Hott Momma.
Congrats on the perfect call on the MA Senate race. Your credibility as a pollster is very high.
ReplyDeletePalin has a fanatically loyal following on the right, but she lacks the appeal to independents. While she made a good VP pick for McCain, she wouldn't be a strong candidate on her own.
ReplyDelete@William Henry:
ReplyDelete<>
Then you would expect their results to be erratic. But more importantly, they first predicted the MA race going to Brown, and they were correct on the final point spread and only off by one (51/46 vs. 5/47).
Looks pretty good to me.
Romney is the right choice for 2012. He is 3 for 3 in the high profile elections where his guys have gone toe to toe with Obama's guys in VA, NJ, and now MA.
ReplyDelete"My guess is Romney is slightly ahead of Huckabee with Palin a distant 3rd."
ReplyDeleteHahaha...looks like you missed something...maybe you should read the 2nd paragraph in the article again.
Huckabee 2012!