Huckabee had earlier led PPP surveys in North Carolina and Georgia, as well as finishing second behind Mitt Romney in Florida and Texas.
In Alabama Huckabee has 41% to 27% for Sarah Palin and 20% for Mitt Romney. Huckabee has double digit leads with both moderates and conservatives in the state, where he edged out John McCain in the 2008 primary.
In Missouri Huckabee leads with 32% to 28% for Palin and 22% for Romney. That 32% is identical to his vote share there in 2008, when he was narrowly defeated in the state by John McCain. Romney's 22% actually represents a weaker performance than he posted last time, when he received 29%.
This makes ten states now where we have looked ahead to the 2012 Republican contest. Romney has been first in six and Huckabee in four with Palin getting shut out so far. While Huckabee is still strongest in the South our small sample size so far suggests Romney is the leading candidate in the Midwest and the Mountain West. We haven't polled any in the Northeast lately, but Romney would presumably be the top candidate there as well.
Of course it's important to keep in mind that the candidates have been pretty evenly matched in all of these states and it wouldn't take a huge shift to make it seem as if someone else had the momentum.
Here are the results from the ten states we've looked at so far:
| State | First | Second | Third |
| | Huckabee | Palin | Romney |
| | Romney | Palin | Huckabee |
| | Romney | Huckabee | Palin |
| | Huckabee | Romney | Palin |
| | Huckabee | Palin | Romney |
| | Romney | Palin | Huckabee |
| | Huckabee | Palin | Romney |
| | Romney | Huckabee | Palin |
| | Romney | Huckabee | Palin |
| | Romney | Palin | Huckabee |
It is also important to note that, in OH and TX, Huck and Romney are in the MOE -- so they are actually in a virtual tie. And with Palin not gaining a foothold anywhere, she becomes more politically irrelevant, which probably hurts Romney more than it does Huckabee.
ReplyDeleteAnd, for the record, in an IA poll and a second AL poll taken by another pollster, Huck was first again.
So, it is true to say that Huck is very strong in the south -- but also that he is very competitive in the midwest.
Huckabee WINS his 16th 2012 Presidential Poll in just 6 months. His popularity continues to skyrocket every month. Click the name Huckapedia above to review ALL 16 2012 WINS.
ReplyDelete