Isakson Vulnerable?

Johnny Isakson's standing is an interesting prism into the current political climate...he is not at all popular with Georgia voters...but Barack Obama is even less popular...and because of that Isakson seems to be in decently safe shape for reelection.

36% of Georgians approve of the job Isakson's doing in the Senate with 38% disapproving. The 26% of voters who are ambivalent toward him is pretty high for an incumbent Senator, particularly one who was his party's nominee for Governor 20 years ago. It's not as if Isakson's new on the political scene but he hasn't made a strong impression on his constituents. Democrats are more unified in their disapproval of Isakson (56%) than Republicans are in their approval (53%) and he's in negative territory with independents at 34/38.

Isakson's doing well in the state compared to Barack Obama though. The President's approval rating comes down at 43/54. He's lost very little support with Democrats- 85% approve of him. But he has virtually no support from Republicans (92% disapprove), and independents are against him by a 36/59 margin as well.

Perhaps because the unpopularity of Obama and national Democrats eclipses any problems Isakson has, he still appears to be in relatively good shape for reelection. He leads a generic Democratic candidate 46-37. He also leads a pair of Democratic non candidates we tested against him just for the heck of it- 47-35 over 2008 nominee Jim Martin and 49-31 over Attorney General and Gubernatorial candidate Thurbert Baker.

Isakson's numbers among independents say a lot about the current political landscape. Even though he has a negative approval rating with them, they still give him a 48-23 generic ballot lead, a 47-20 advantage over Baker, and a 50-22 one over Martin. They may not be particularly enthralled with Isakson himself but they'd much prefer him to another Democratic Senator.

If Democrats get a serious candidate in this race it could shape up similarly to the 2008 Senate contest in the state, which ended up being much more competitive than anybody expected at this point in the election cycle. Isakson is a weak incumbent, and he's lucky to be running for reelection in what appears to be a strongly Republican year or else it seems likely he would be near the top of Democratic target lists.

Full results here