Thanks to a more unified party and the advantage among independents Republicans continue to lead the generic Congressional ballot, 47-42 this month.
92% of Republicans are committed to supporting their party this fall while just 86% of Democrats are. For all the unhappiness many GOP voters may express with their party they are still pretty universally planning to vote for it this fall. Independents voters are leaning toward the GOP by a 37-31 spread.
The Republican advantage has been built largely on a massive shift with white voters. In the 2006 midterm whites went for the GOP by just a 51-47 margin. Now they're leaning toward the Republicans 57-32. 84% of blacks and 65% of Hispanics still plan to vote Democratic, relatively comparable to the last midterm when undecideds are factored in.
Americans are almost evenly divided on whether they think the GOP will regain control of the House with 40% saying yes and 41% saying no. Republican voters are optimistic that their party will take power, with 76% expressing that sentiment. Democrats are almost equally optimistic they will stay in charge with 74% saying that's the likely outcome.
Republicans have an enthusiasm advantage but it's not massive- 72% of their voters say they're very excited about casting their ballots this year to 62% of Democrats.
Full results here
Charlie Cook (Democrat) said it best. Democrats have made a "fundamental, total miscalculations from the very, very beginning". It would be "very hard to come up with a scenario where Democrats don't lose the House... you could triple the Republican Party's problems and I'd still rather have their problems than the problems facing Democrats."
ReplyDeleteDemocrats are not losing the Congress because they're losing some communication battle. Democrats are losing the Congress because they have chosen to pursue the wrong policies and have arrogantly ignored the will of the American people... and then openly insulted the American people for having the nerve to "petition their government for a redress of grievances".
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/house/charlie-cook.html
Stu Rothenberg concurs:
"At this point, GOP gains of 25-30 seats seem likely, though considerably larger gains in excess of 40 seats certainly seem possible.
We've moved 44 seats toward the Republicans and only 4 toward the Democrats."
And the rapidity of the Democrats' collapse is astounding. In 1994, Democrats didn't appear to be this vulnerable until mid-summer. In 1980, Democrats didn't look this vulnerable until October. The Democrats have lost the trust of the American people faster than any previous Congress in recent memory. America's frustration at Congressional Democrats (measured by Gallup) is greater than it has ever been in 60 years.
The first step for Democrats is to admit that they were wrong, that they have pursued the wrong policies, and that they have needlessly insulted the American people. Democrats will not hold their majority unless they do some serious penance. Democrats cannot hold power by attacking Republicans. Democrats can only save themselves by admitting their own culpability and renouncing their own policies.
Tom,
ReplyDeleteI have to disagree with your assessment. Yesterday, I went to Tea party in Rally and there were 1000 to 2000 people on a thursday evening or even more. There was a steady flow of people in and out for 3 hours. Conservatives are fired up.
How bad will the Democrats' losses be? Likely greater than 1994.
ReplyDelete"(According to Pew Research Center) In 1994 when the Democrats lost over 50 House seats at mid-term, the party's favorable rating was 62%, and for the Congress they controlled it was 53%. They still got killed. Now the party's favorable is 38% and Congress's approval is 25%. The Republicans' numbers are low, too, but they're not in charge.
The Democratic Party is on the edge of an electoral cliff with a long fall to the bottom."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704133804575198290459062592.html