George LeMieux is frequently mentioned as a potential challenger to Bill Nelson in 2012, but I have a hard time seeing him as one of the GOP's more viable candidates.
When we polled Florida last month we found LeMieux with only a 13% approval rating and 33% of voters disapproving of him. He had negative numbers across party lines with a plurality of Democrats, Republicans, and independents all expressing negative feelings toward him. The figures didn't even bode particularly well for his ability to win a contested GOP nomination contest- 29% of Republicans gave him poor marks with only 15% expressing positive feelings toward him.
Even Quinnipiac- which tends to give politicians of both parties higher approval ratings than we do- found LeMieux in negative territory on its most recent Florida poll. They at least found a plurality of Republicans speaking positively of him, but the numbers were far from impressive with 26% expressing approval to 16% disapproving.
I don't think voters are going to like politicians a whole lot more in 2012 than they do right now, so Republicans are going to have a much better chance against Nelson if they can run someone with outsider cred. A former Senator's about as far away from that as you can get. It's hard to imagine LeMieux's run in Washington extending much further than the end of the year.
I'm increasingly of the opinion that Crist will drop out of this year's race, not run as an independent, and wait to challenge Nelson in 2012. As you point out, 2012 isn't likely to be friendly to him either, as an establish candidate.
ReplyDeleteMaybe not the right post but.
ReplyDeleteWhat about the next week?
Maybe Arizona? Im interested in AZ-Gov.