Monday, April 5, 2010

Obama Approval Shifts

I was a little surprised when we polled Alabama last week to find that Barack Obama's approval rating there was slightly higher than the percentage of the vote he received in the state, the first place where we'd found that to be the case in months. There's an easy explanation though- Obama's approval rating is falling slower in states with heavy black populations because those voters are much more likely to have stuck with him than whites.

When Obama's national approval rating peaked in our polling last May he had the support of 91% of African Americans and 48% of whites. In our poll last month he was still at 90% with blacks but had seen a decline to only 37% with whites.

Given that it's no surprise that 6 of the 8 states we've polled since December where Obama's seen the smallest decrease from his 2008 performance had black populations above the national average- Alabama, South Carolina, Arkansas, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. The other two were Alaska and South Dakota.

The states where Obama's seen the largest decline in his support- New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Texas, and Wisconsin- all have average or below average black populations.

Here's the full data:

State

Approval

2008 Vote

Difference

Black Pop.

Alabama

42

39

+3

26

South Carolina

46

45

+1

29

Arkansas

38

39

-1

16

Alaska

37

38

-1

4

North Carolina

46

50

-4

22

Georgia

43

47

-4

30

South Dakota

41

45

-4

1

Florida

46

51

-5

16

Missouri

43

49

-6

12

Kentucky

35

41

-6

8

Connecticut

54

61

-7

10

Colorado

47

54

-7

4

Wisconsin

46

56

-10

6

Texas

33

44

-11

12

Ohio

40

51

-11

12

Nevada

44

55

-11

8

New Mexico

45

57

-12

3

3 comments:

  1. Obama Love

    Obama he is my man, he shows his anger, to the public he gives no dam.

    He is a progressive in every way, killing jobs is how he earns the union's back deal pay, in action he is a socialist even when he is just simply issuing a stay: He says he for the free, but he is bent on one single deed, providing a permanent May Day for all of America to see.

    He oppresses many while calling them every name, then claiming he and his party is the victim, soaking in the more fame, he is very hypocritical in his blame, knowing every time it's always the same, this is Obama's favorite game.

    He blame's others like the Tea Party, Insurance, Racist, Big banks, and Israel. Many of us knows his policies have already failed. He shows the signed of being dangerously narcissistic, but our media loves him, as he can fool them into believe he just pessimistic.

    He is for big government every time, hurting our economy so we can't save a dime. He knows the socialism role, will be to take away all our dough. He made a promise not increase the deficit, this promise he knew, to be untrue, but if he created enough civil unrest, he could find some else to have the blame rest, for all his ugly mess, this is where Obama is truly the best.

    With government spending billions in waste, I know our government will make it sound great and a honorable place, so they offer money to their cronies in this and every case.

    President Obama helps unions gain their dues, no bill is done with out their un-ethical sausage dew. Soon our education system stench will endlessly protrude, and he has no care if you find this rude.

    Go Obama, lets have Government take away more freedoms, come on man, you can transform, again claim the public is misinformed. Go Big G, rah rha ree, lets help our government take us to our knees

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  2. You also found that Obama's approval with whites was quite a bit higher than his 2008 results. Same thing in John Spratt's district in South Carolina. Any reason for that?

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  3. Obama's approval with blacks won't help in congressional races (blacks are concentrated into heavy democrat districts) and won't help him in 2012 (blacks are concentrated in the south). Obama desperately needs to make amends with whites. That means listen to them, not attack them as "racist" because he doesn't share their values.

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