The results of yesterday's special election in Pennsylvania were a clear indication that things are starting to turn around for Democrats, and Michael Bennet's improved standing for reelection is a reflection of that. Bennet now leads Jane Norton 44-41 in his quest for a full term in the Senate. They were tied in a March PPP poll of the race, and this is the largest lead Bennet has posted in any public polling to date.
The main movement in the race has come with independents. Norton led 44-35 with them previously, but Bennet's now pulled ahead 42-40. That makes Bennet one of few Democratic Senate candidates in the country leading with independents. Bennet's also breaking another national trend by winning over more Republicans (11%) than Norton is Democrats (9%). In almost every other key race in the country more Democratic voters are going over to the Republican than vice versa.
Bennet's approval numbers actually remain pretty poor, with 44% of voters disapproving of him to only 34% who think he's doing a good job. But Norton isn't popular either, as 32% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of her compared with 20% who see her in a positive light. This is not exactly a battle between two heavyweights.
Bennet leads Ken Buck by a wider margin, 45-39. Andrew Romanoff also polls well against each of the leading Republicans, with a 43-41 advantage over Norton and a 41-38 one against Buck.
This continues to look like it will be a very competitive race but things are trending in the right direction for Bennet.
Full results here
When was this poll actually done? I'm wondering how much of Bennet's lead is "real" and how much of it is just primary election excitement?
ReplyDeletePA Democrats cast 83000 votes in the primary and ONLY 71000 votes for Critz.
ReplyDeleteThe Republican primary only attracted 46000 votes, but Burns received 59000 votes.
The message from PA is that Democrats will clearly UNDERPERFORM their registration advantages.
It was a competitive Democratic primary for governor and senate that turned out Democrat votes. But still the Democrat got only 85% of the Democratic turnout. Meanwhile, the Republican got 128% of the Republican turnout. TUESDAY's RESULT WAS A PRO-REPUBLICAN LANDSLIDE 128%-85%!
In November, when Republicans will turn out in stronger numbers statewide (and Independents will largely side with Republicans), the notion of things turning around for the Democrats will be exposed as a ridiculous delusion.
It took a 2-to-1 registration advantage and a duo of competitive Democrat primaries and a Democrat candidate RUNNING AWAY from his own party as fast as he possibly could to eake out a slight edge.
I think PA-12 has the potential to force GOP candidates to regroup and work on messaging for November. The wave obviously won't carry everyone to victory.
ReplyDeleteYou need to have a solid message and present clear policy differences between you and the other candidate.
I'm pretty bummed today, but this could (maybe) be a blessing in disguise.
"2-1", "2-1", "2-1" is the Fox News talking point therapy of the day for Republicans after their humiliating defeat in a district McCain WON and Kerry lost - part of the so-called "McCain Belt" (by the way, there's similar districts in the South that Republicans win by even larger margins). Keep on telling yourself "2-1" - it will be soothing for the HUGE loss.
ReplyDelete"TUESDAY's RESULT WAS A PRO-REPUBLICAN LANDSLIDE 128%-85%!"
ReplyDeleteTo paraphrase your boy George, that's some fuzzy math.
We get some good laughs out of you at the PPP office, Christine Liberty.
The Republican candidate got 1.28 times the number of votes cast in the Republican primary. The Democratic candidate got only 0.85 times the number of votes cast in the Democratic primary.
ReplyDeleteThe Democrat clearly underperformed. The Republican clearly got more cross-party votes. The numbers do not favor Democrats statewide.
This article leaves out the very important fact that Bennett has not won the primary yet. He is facing a very strong opponent in Andrew Romanoff and many dems here in CO are pretty pissed off at the way Bennett was appointed - a vote of 1 by a lame duck Governor.
ReplyDeleteIf you squint and stand on your head, Rand Paul got 5,000,000% of the Democratic vote in Puerto Rico. Vive la Revolucion!
ReplyDelete"This article leaves out the very important fact that Bennett has not won the primary yet. He is facing a very strong opponent in Andrew Romanoff and many dems here in CO are pretty pissed off at the way Bennett was appointed - a vote of 1 by a lame duck Governor."
ReplyDeleteWe already reported on the Bennet-Romanoff primary race, and the full release (click on the link for full results) mentions Romanoff's standing against Norton and Buck.