Barbara Boxer has the kind of approval numbers that usually result in a politician not winning reelection. But in a Democratic state and with competition that is less than stellar she still leads all of her opponents for reelection by 3-7 points.
Just 37% of California voters like the job Boxer is doing as their Senator while 46% disapprove. Her numbers with independents are dreadful at a 24/50 approval spread, and Republicans are much more unified in their disapproval of her (89%) than Democrats are in their approval of her (67%).
Nevertheless Boxer leads Carly Fiorina 45-42, Chuck DeVore 46-40, and Tom Campbell 47-40. Boxer may not be all that popular but neither is her opposition. 22% of voters have a favorable opinion of Fiorina to 30% with an unfavorable one. Campbell and DeVore are mostly unknown. 67% of voters have no opinion about Campbell to 15% with a positive one and 18% with a negative one. DeVore is even more obscure, as 76% of voters have no opinion about him with 10% seeing favorably and 14% unfavorably.
Boxer trails by 7-10 points with independents against all 3 Republicans, and they all win a higher degree of Democratic support than Boxer does of Republican support. But there are a whole lot more Democrats than Republicans in the state and because of that Boxer still holds onto the lead.
Part of the tenuousness of Boxer's status is that Barack Obama has seen a pretty significant drop in popularity in the state. 49% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 42% disapproving. Those numbers are still pretty solid, but they are a good deal below his performance at the polls in the state in November 2008 and most people who have soured on Obama aren't going to be inclined to vote for Boxer this year.
Boxer always looks vulnerable early in the cycle but has ended up being reelected by healthy margins in both 1998 and 2004. Once again it looks like she could be in a tough fight for reelection but if her opponent (likely Carly Fiorina) doesn't hold up well to the pressures of a statewide campaign or if the President's popularity in the state goes back up she may do just fine once again.
Full results here
When we suggested California, it was underpolled in recent months, but in the last week we got 5 new polls, PPP, Rasmussen, R2k, PPIC and SurveyUSA. It's underpolled no more.
ReplyDeleteIf I'm a California Republican voting on June 8th, and electability is my sole criteria for who to vote for in the Senate primary, who should I vote for?
ReplyDeleteThe question is how many more Democrats will show up on election day? If there aren't 500,000 more Democrats than Republicans Boxer is in trouble.
ReplyDelete@wt, vote for Fiorina, she might not be very conservative, but I can see many Republicans not turning out to vote if Campbell is GOP nominee because there aren't too many differences between Boxer and Campbell, also, in this poll, Fiorina polls closest.
ReplyDeleteIn February 2008 Hillary Clinton was likely more electable than Barack Obama, but in the months that followed he ran such a good campaign that he won. On the other hand, Coakley looked like a better candidate than Capuano.
ReplyDeleteThey all poll within a few points vs. Boxer with Campbell a tick better and Devore a tick worse. Once the nomination is final I doubt there will be much difference. If you're a Republican just vote for who you like best.
Devore is the man who can beat Boxer. You don't beat your opponent by being 'more like them'. Fiorina will lose to Boxer if she wins the primaries. Do a YouTube search for the debates between Fiorina, Devore and Campbell before you make up your mind.
ReplyDeleteIf California Democrats aren't completely in bed with the corrupt machine politics, Mickey Kaus would be a much better choice than "call me Seantor" Boxer.
ReplyDelete