Critz is getting 15% from voters who disapprove of Obama and that's vital to his chances of winning in a district where the President's approval rating is a 35/55 spread.
For sake of comparison in 11 key Senate races we've looked at in 2010 no Democratic candidate has received more than 9% among voters who don't like the job Obama is doing. It is proving almost impossible for Democratic candidates to win any support from people unhappy with him and that underscores how difficult it's going to be for the party to win this year in the places where Obama is unpopular.
A Critz victory would be very impressive given the way his constituents feel about Obama.
Here's a table showing the level of support Democratic Senate candidates across the country are getting from voters who disapprove of Barack Obama:
| State | Democratic % from Obama Disapprovers |
| | 9 |
| | 9 |
| | 8 |
| | 7 |
| | 7 |
| | 7 |
| | 6 |
| | 5 |
| | 5 |
| | 5 |
| | 4 |
Dog bites man though. The phenomenon you describe is just a function of the area being heavy on Reagan Democrats.
ReplyDeleteThey divorce their national party from the local Democrats they vote for, which is how Murtha won big when the district was flipping GOP for McCain.
Well, he's the only one running as a conservative, others are trying to out-liberal their opponents.
ReplyDelete@wt, these guys aren't Reagan democrats! They voted for Carter and Kerry too! It is because running as a conservative, so some disapproving Dems might still vote for him, but only some.
ReplyDeleteCritz has to run as a conservative to have any chance at all. And if he doesn't vote as a conservative in Congress, his tenure will be a very short one.
ReplyDeleteWhen are you putting up a poll on the suggestions on where to poll?
ReplyDelete@ Anon 1:53 -- I don't disagree with you. That's why I didn't say it was all Reagan Democrats, or even mostly Reagan Democrats -- just heavy on them.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure Murtha always ran ahead of the Presidential candidate at the top of the ticket.