Sarah Palin's endorsement of Terry Branstad in Iowa won't do much to inflate the size of his already likely victory...Republicans in the state who said they were going to vote for her in 2012 supported Branstad 60-23 on our poll of the state a couple weeks ago, a margin considerably larger than his overall 15 point advantage.
Branstad also led 47-28 on that poll with supporters of Newt Gingrich and 67-19 with early followers of Mitt Romney. The candidate whose supporters were casting the anti-establishment votes? Actually Mike Huckabee's- Bob Vander Plaats led Branstad 40-33 on the poll with folks who said they would vote for him in 2012.
At least in Iowa it may be Huckabee, rather than Palin, who has the leg up with disaffected GOP voters.
I think the correlation between Huckabee and Vander Plaats voters may be in level of commitment to caucusing, and therefore voting. Huck came out on top with 2008 caucusgoers, and he still leads there. Caucusgoers are more motivated than people who just check a box and go home. And Vander Plaats is a Tea Party activist type who probably attracts people who will show up for an extended period of time.
ReplyDelete