Our national poll this month found that the net approval of Congressional Democrats (-24 at 33/57) was 16 points better than that of Congressional Republicans (-40 at 20/60). Yet when it came to the generic ballot there was a tie.
The reason for that disconnect is that Republicans are cleaning up with a voting bloc that accounts for 26% of the country and could end up being the most important group of people at the polls this fall: voters who hate both Congressional Democrats and Congressional Republicans. The GOP has a 57-19 generic lead with this group of voters that could perhaps be described as the angriest segment of the electorate. Their support is fueling the GOP's success right now.
Who are these folks? 44% are Republicans, 34% are independents, and 21% are Democrats. They're largely male (60%) and white (82%). I think it's very accurate to say that angry white males are the key to GOP prospects this fall.
One interesting thing about these folks is that only 35% of them identify as Tea Partiers. While that's certainly higher than the 25% of the population as a whole that does I might have expected higher.
The GOP leads 57-19 with those who do not approve of either party in Congress because those voters want BOTH PARTIES to be more conservative (fiscal restraint, lower taxes, less burdensome regulation).
ReplyDeleteConservatism is the solution to BOTH parties' chances of electoral success. The Republicans are just smarter because they actually admit reality: AMERICANS WANT CONSERVATISM.
Jensen when are your congressional district polls from NV coming??????
ReplyDeleteI would say those that dislike government the most realize that the best solution to their problem is to have Republicans control Congress and a Democrat to control the White House. It really doesn't matter how little I like the Republicans, I at least have faith that they will stop Obama and Obama will stop them. Problem solved. America wins, politicians lose.
ReplyDeleteIt worked when we had Clinton/Gingrich and hopefully it can work again.
As the economy deteriorates, the numbers who are pessimistic or frustrated or "angry" will only increase.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.oftwominds.com/blogjuly10/stocks-election07-10.html
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TEoCT8ApI8I/AAAAAAAAGi8/UN9Nx79qygw/s1600/spxdaily.png
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjuly10/REbuyers-evaporating07-10.html
Given all evidence to the contrary, doesn't it seem a bit inane to continue focusing on unfavorability numbers of the Republican Party and it's candidates. Virtually every pollster out there is projecting a rather sizable gain for the Republican Party this fall; in both the Senate and House, not to mention the Gubernatorial races now in play. PPP has the Congressional generic ballot as being evenly split between the two parties. Of which, at this point seems rather laughable. Rasmussen has it at 45/36 Republican. Of which, in my opinion, makes far more sense than not. Lets face it Tom, the "enthusiasm gap" alone, as reported by Gallup, Pew, the Wall Street Journal, Rasmussen and many others. will most certainly impact the outcome of this November's elections. So much so that I for one would conclude that an awlful lot of pollsters (including PPP) will, when it's all said and done, be eating an awful lot of crow. Mark my word!
ReplyDeleteAnonymous - and even more inane to keep trying to sell the angry white male theme that seems the Democrats only card to play these days. Oh, that and calling their opponents racist.
ReplyDeleteThe phrase was never used about the Pew demographic "Liberal," comprising 19% of the population, when they were shooting up Republican headquarters, smashing windows at G20 summits, or calling BushCheneyMcHalliburton various types of fascist. The phrase only comes out when they want to conjure images of trigger-happy rednecks.
I ache for the day that liberals would read their own rhetoric through the prism of an outsider who was just trying to get the issues explained to them - the proverbial Man From Mars approach.
Off-topic message to Christian Liberty:
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think of your buddy Ken Buck now?
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/07/26/buck_caught_criticizing_tea_party.html