In light of the Arizona immigration law and Obama’s lack of a hard-line response, Hispanic support seems to have waned over the last two months.
Here are our findings:
Our April poll was taken just before the announcement of the Arizona immigration law. Therefore, May’s poll is most reflective of Hispanic opinion of Obama following the passage of the law and his reaction.The magnitude of the change in Hispanic voter’s opinions may not be as drastic as it seems. Hispanic voters only make up about 10% of national voters, as result there is a +/- 9.8 to 12.2% margin of error on their opinion, in comparison to the +/- 3 to 3.8% margin for the entire poll (depending on the sample size for the particular month).
Still, there was undoubtedly a drop in their view of Obama in May and into June, maybe to a new record low. Even with the drop, Obama still has the overwhelming support of Hispanic voters, especially in comparison to the overall population. We can’t say for sure but it seems that many Hispanic voters were unhappy with how Obama reacted to the new law, others may still remain hopeful that the President will end up on the right side of the immigration debate.
We’ll see if his new immigration plan will find favor with the Hispanic voter in our upcoming national poll.
notice how poorly correlated hispanic support is with national support. evidence that in chasing hispanics, Obama (or any Democrat) may lose broader support.
ReplyDeletehispanic support also broke below a previous low at 65, a bearish sign for Obama.
“We’ll see if his new immigration plan will find favor with the Hispanic voter in our upcoming national poll.”
ReplyDeleteCORRECTION: There will be no NEW immigration plan. Why not?
1. The facts are not behind the effort. The majority of Americans believe that illegal immigrants are not here to work; they are here to take advantage of what we freely give… welfare, housing, education and hospital care.
2. The decision by the DOJ to take on Arizona will backfire by keeping this issue front-of-mind between now and the election. The attempt to repeal the Arizona law and the DOJ challenge to the law itself will be seen as an attempt to make the border less secure. But every report of a shooting, every report of a drug smuggler caught, and every video of violence on both sides of the border will support the need for more control, not less.
3. Sadly though, our narcissistic President – although he feels responsible for making every decision – will have moved on. He will have shifted to a new area before the end of the month and with no one to lead the effort, the plan will die.
Hispanic voters don’t want to be hassled when they go to the ice cream store with their kids. And the Hispanics I know don’t want the illegals here either. In fact, the majority of Americans don’t want the illegals here.
Without support from the majority of Americans in general and without support from the Hispanics in particular, whom do you think is going to carry the flag?
Tom,
ReplyDeleteI think, this midterm election is becoming a snapshot of multiple issues and the waning of support of hispanics to both democrats and the president. I don't think, they are very concerned about just the immigration bill in Arizona.
Isn't it time for your next GOP 2012 poll soon?
ReplyDeleteAs I remember it you did the last one between june 4-7, so I figured maybe it's time again :) Would be interesting to see who - if anyone - gained from the june 8 primaries.
/John
If my Hispanic support had dropped from 75% to less than 60%, I would be out politicizing Immigration Reform, just like Obama.
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely no chance of passing a bill before the 2010 election. Make it an issue for the election, try to get those poll numbers up.
It would be OK if not much of anything else was going on. We have the spill in the Gulf, a bad economy, a budget so out of balance that it will have an effect for years, etc.
Obama needs to be governing, not politicking.
Hispanics waited and waited and waited for Obama to address immigration. If he had, there wouldn't an Arizona law. They then might have expected him to get rid of the law... And he gave a speech. They can certainly blame some governor they've never heard of, but the Democrats don't appear to be fighting for them.
ReplyDeleteHispanics who were supporting Republicans already probably mostly agree with the law or, at least, it doesn't shake them from their support. Republicans won't pick up Hispanics as a result, but probably won't lose many. The advantage of being perceived as against a group is that most of what you do won't cost you the support you have. I doubt the Dems lost much Wall Street support due to the financial regs.
Hispanics in my area are sick of the pro abortion president. We are CATHOLIC you know.
ReplyDeleteHispanics are conservative religiously and economically (many are entrepreneurs). In addition, english-speaking hispanics are more pro-Republican than spanish-speaking hispanics, and second-generation hispanic Americans are more pro-Republican than first-generation hispanic Americans. The more hispanics learn about America, the more they support Republicans and conservatism.
ReplyDeleteConservatism is the philosophy of RESPONSIBLE ADULTS. ALL adults move to the politically right. Only developmentally stunted children ever remain on the left.
Maybe legal Hispanics AGREE with Arizona and not Obama. Gee, what a concept!
ReplyDeleteAccording to the U.S. Census Bureau, Hispanics in 2008 represented 13.68% of this country's population, yet were only 7.43% of those that actually voted. Gallup reported on 6/11 that 61% of Hispanics claimed to be Democrat while 32% said they were Republican. All total, those numbers gives Obama and the Democratic Party a net voter advantage of 2.25% over Republicans. On the other hand, (according to Gallup on 6/7) he has lost 12% (69% to 57%) of Hispanic support since January and has neither gained nor lost support amongst Hispanics since passage of Arizona's anti-illegal immigration (SB1070) bill. When one also factors in the fact that, by a near 2 to 1 margin, the American people support the new Arizona law, it would seem to me to be rather absurd to even suggest that Obama stands to politically gain ANYTHING as a result of his wrongheaded position in this matter. It appears instead to be just one more nail in his political coffin. Oh well!
ReplyDeleteYes, ALL ADULTS move right as they age, so today's fifty year olds who think that biracial marriage should be legal will shift to adopt the more-segregationist attitudes of today's eighty year old cohort. Oh? What? Not what Imaginary-Friend Anarchy meant? Too bad. That's what reality actually reflects. Society continues to make progress, younger generations grow up with new attitudes, and the generation that made the progress looks 'conservative' by the new standards because a higher percentage of them hold the old positions. Actually looking at voting trends shows exactly the opposite of Imaginary-Friend Anarchy thinks. Voting habits and political opinions actually tend to stay statistically constant through life; what changes is voting frequency, as older voters vote more, and so their position (more conservative than the current youth, but less conservative than the generation before them) shows up more.
ReplyDelete