In Illinois, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin an Obama endorsement comes down as a net negative impact on the chances of a voter supporting a candidate by anywhere from 14 to 33 points. There are two reasons for that. First, Republicans respond more negatively to Obama than Democrats do positively. Second, independents are completely unimpressed by an Obama endorsement. In Ohio 6% say they're more likely to support an Obama endorsed candidate while 57% say they're less likely to. In Wisconsin it's a 6/51 spread. In Pennsylvania it's 10/56. In Illinois it's 15/39 and in Louisiana it's 16/49.
Already Obama visits did little to help Democratic candidates in Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Virginia. The party may be better off if he stays in the White House and focuses on governing this fall. Here are the state by state Obama endorsement impact poll numbers:
| State | More Likely | Less Likely | Net |
| | 26 | 40 | -14 |
| | 22 | 55 | -33 |
| | 24 | 51 | -27 |
| | 22 | 50 | -28 |
| | 19 | 50 | -31 |
If Obama is not Democrats' best weapon on the trail this fall, what about Bill Clinton? Clinton is not quite as toxic as the sitting President but his support isn't going to be real helpful with an off year general electorate either:
| State | More Likely | Less Likely | Net |
| | 25 | 38 | -13 |
| | 23 | 47 | -24 |
| | 27 | 44 | -17 |
| | 23 | 43 | -20 |
| | 19 | 43 | -24 |
If Democrats want to avoid nationalizing this year's election- which is probably prudent- they're better off if both Obama and Clinton stay off the campaign trail.
Well, there are still clearly states like Arkansas where Bubba would help.
ReplyDeleteYour conclusions only make sense if you consider only the voters who initially were going to vote for the Obama-backed candidate. You, however, are including those who never wanted to vote for the guy anyway. I would guess the net result in the first case is going to be negative also, but not as negative as what you got by including voters who have been hostile to Obama-backed candidates from the start.
ReplyDelete56% Oppose the Obama Justice Department's Challenge of Arizona Immigration Law. Obama seems determined to make himself and his party more unpopular with the American people than they already are... and further alienate Democrats from the mainstream of America.
ReplyDelete