Mitt Romney continues to look like an overwhelming early favorite for the 2012 New Hampshire primary but the most surprising thing about our newest set of numbers there may be that Ron Paul's in third place, outpolling Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin (albeit by small margins.)
Romney leads the way with 31% to 14% for Newt Gingrich, 13% for Paul, 12% for Huckabee, 9% for Palin, 3% for Tim Pawlenty, and 1% for Mitch Daniels.
Observations from the numbers:
-Among voters who are more likely to support a candidate endorsed by Sarah Palin...Romney leads...with 29% to Palin's 21%. We've written repeatedly about how our 2012 polling shows a disconnect between people liking Palin and being willing to support her for President and this is a great example of it.
-Mike Huckabee's inability to follow up on his Iowa victory with a strong showing in New Hampshire significantly stunted his momentum from the surprising early win in 2008 and it doesn't look like he has much more appeal in the state now than he did then.
-The numbers provide some evidence that the happier GOP voters are with their party in 2012 the better off Romney's going to be. With voters who think the party's too liberal he's tied at 22 with Gingrich. With voters who think the party's too conservative he trails Paul 24-22. But he's up 42-12 on Gingrich with folks who think the party is ideologically 'about right' and that's fueling his overall lead. What happens in this fall's elections could have a big impact on Romney's prospects. If Republicans get back in control the rank and file will be happier and might be more inclined to support a mainstream candidate like Romney. If the party falls short its voters might be more inclined to shake things up and go with someone a lot less conventional than the former Massachusetts Governor.
-Ron Paul's numbers challenge the general assumptions about his support a little bit. With voters who identify themselves as Tea Partiers he's in fifth place with only 9%. With voters who don't identify themselves as such he's in second place with 15%. His son, Rand Paul, has been to some extent the poster child for the Tea Party on the national level but that's not equating to support from that quarter for his dad. Paul's numbers also suggest some appeal to the anti-Palin wing of the party. With GOP primary voters who consider a Palin endorsement to be a negative he's running almost even, getting 23% to Romney's 25%. But he polls at only 6% with people for whom Palin support is a plus.
-We get a lot of e-mail asking us to include Tim Pawlenty in all of our 2012 Presidential polling but his numbers here are a reminder of why we aren't- yet. Pawlenty was at 3% in our New Hampshire polling in April and he's still there. He's getting a lot of attention in insider circles as he positions himself for a 2012 bid but it's not translating to the general public enough yet for him to make a real dent in the polls. Pawlenty still has plenty of time to become a serious player for the Republican nomination but his name recognition isn't to the point yet where we'd get much out of including him every month on our national 2012 poll testing match ups against Obama.
Full results here
What about Governor Gary Johnson L? Sigh, I know he doesn’t have the name recognition yet, but a girl could hope. However, numbers like that for Paul could help someone like Gary Johnson ride the libertarian wave. It is nice to see that he could perhaps jump into the hearts of those 13% if Paul chooses not to run.
ReplyDeleteWe did poll Gary Johnson against Obama nationally a few months ago, and practically no one had heard of him, so he naturally didn't do well against Obama. We haven't put him in the primary field anywhere yet, for obvious reasons. Pawlenty is a much more likely candidate, much more well known, and yet he only pulls low single digits. Same with Thune and others. As the field shapes up after the midterm and into next year, we'll have a better idea who we should poll. Right now it's all just speculation.
ReplyDeleteIf Ron Paul is running, which he said he will, it would be idiotic to put any competitor, like Gary Johnson, in there to take away from this man who has spent his entire life (40 of 74 years at least) trying to save this country!) A majority of Americans (myself included) would be outraged if they tried to stick other libertarians in the Republican primary race. What we need is more NeoCons to run to bring down the chances of a NeoCons winning, so the one true libertarian wins! We don't need more libertarians running! That would be awful! Ron Paul 2012! Last Chance for Liberty! =)
ReplyDeleteTom,
ReplyDeleteEnough already about Sarah Palin. Even amongst conservatives like myself, she is NOT considered to be a viable candidate for the Presidency in 2012. But DON'T get it twisted. She is, for the most part, thought to be a big asset for the Republican Party and it's more immediate future. And for good reason. She indeed has the ability to unify and motivate an awful lot of people who might otherwise remain on the political sidelines and not vote this November and beyond to 2012. And YES, her endorsement for Republican candidates is most certainly a plus. Though it may not be a significant factor in enlisting further support for the Republican candidate, it most certainly serves to further galvanize the support that is already there. The notion that her endorsement will somehow deter voters from voting Republican is, in my opinion, pure bunk. The vast majority of conservative voters, of which represents 40% of the electorate (and growing), have already made up their minds as to whom they're going to vote for. That, for the most part, being the conservative candidate. Many not so politically savvy conservative voters are somewhat in the dark about who is and is not, in reality, "conservative" (and not just another RINO). Palin's endorsement serves to better clarify and ligitimize that candidate's claim, if made - further enhancing that candidate's chances. Granted, Palin's endorsements will not, in all cases, have a noticeable impact on the outcome of those races. But, I remain totally unconvinced that her endorsements, in any way, represents a negative for the candidates that are receiving it. It only makes me further suspect of those producing the numbers proporting to do otherwise - TOM?
Tom,
ReplyDeleteEnough already about Sarah Palin. Even amongst conservatives like myself, she is NOT considered to be a viable candidate for the Presidency in 2012. But DON'T get it twisted. She is, for the most part, thought to be a big asset for the Republican Party and it's more immediate future. And for good reason. She indeed has the ability to unify and motivate an awful lot of people who might otherwise remain on the political sidelines and not vote this November and beyond to 2012. And YES, her endorsement for Republican candidates is most certainly a plus. Though it may not be a significant factor in enlisting further support for the Republican candidate, it most certainly serves to further galvanize the support that is already there. The notion that her endorsement will somehow deter voters from voting Republican is, in my opinion, pure bunk. The vast majority of conservative voters, of which represents 40% of the electorate (and growing), have already made up their minds as to whom they're going to vote for. That, for the most part, being the conservative candidate. Many not so politically savvy conservative voters are somewhat in the dark about who is and is not, in reality, "conservative" (and not just another RINO). Palin's endorsement serves to better clarify and ligitimize that candidate's claim, if made - further enhancing that candidate's chances. Granted, Palin's endorsements will not, in all cases, have a noticeable impact on the outcome of those races. But, I remain totally unconvinced that her endorsements, in any way, represents a negative for the candidates that are receiving it. It only makes me further suspect of those producing the numbers proporting to do otherwise - TOM?
I suggest adding Pawlenty and Thune not because they are popular now but because they are actually likely to run for President; much more likely, I think, than Palin or Huckabee.
ReplyDeleteI support what wt said
ReplyDeleteRON PAUL ALL THE WAY! HE BRINGS TRUTH! HE HAS VOTED 100% IN LINE WITH THE CONSTITUTION THAT OTHER POLITICIANS WIPE THEIR YOU KNOW WHAT WITH! RON PAUL 2012!
ReplyDelete