Wisconsin GOP Primary Numbers

Wisconsin appears likely to have competitive races for both Governor and the Senate this fall. What it doesn't appear likely to have is closely contested primaries for who the Republican candidates will be in those contests. Scott Walker and Ron Johnson are both well ahead in their respective races.

Walker leads Mark Neumann 58-19 in the Gubernatorial primary. He is both better known and a lot better liked than Neumann is. 64% of GOP primary voters have a favorable opinion of him to only 10% with a negative one. There's considerably more division in how voters feel about Neumann, with 33% rating him positively and 27% saying they see him unfavorably. 40% of Republicans have not yet formed an opinion about Neumann compared to only 26% who are ambivalent toward Walker.

Walker's lead is built on overwhelming support from conservative voters. He and Neumann are running basically even among moderates, but Walker has a 65-13 lead with conservatives. If Tom Barrett's going to win this fall one place he may have an opportunity is trying to sway the moderates who are planning to vote for Neumann in the primary to come over to the Democratic side when their candidate more than likely is defeated.

Neither of the candidates on the Senate side are particularly well known yet but Ron Johnson has made a much more positive first impression on Republican primary voters than Dave Westlake and consequently holds a 49-11 lead. Westlake is completely obscure with 80% not offering an opinion about him and those who do breaking down negatively with 7% seeing him favorably and 13% negatively. Johnson is also an unknown to a majority of those planning to vote in the primary but he's showing appeal to those who are familiar with him- 39% have a positive opinion to only 8% who see him negatively.

It's a pretty safe bet the matches in Wisconsin this fall will be Tom Barrett against Scott Walker for Governor and Russ Feingold against Ron Johnson for Senate.

Full results here