PPP's first look at the North Carolina Senate race since switching over to a likely voter model finds Democratic interest in this fall's election on a severe decline compared to 2008, and as a result Richard Burr has expanded his lead to 5 points. He's up on Elaine Marshall 43-38, with Libertarian Michael Beitler pulling 6% and 13% of voters undecided.
Marshall's winning 77% of Obama voters and Burr's winning 76% of McCain voters so if the turnout patterns this year were the same as in 2008 we'd have a tie race. But those planning to vote at this point two months before the election report having voted for John McCain by 9 points in 2008, in contrast to Barack Obama's actual narrow victory in the state. That Republican shift in this year's electorate is consistent with what we're seeing across the country, and it's the biggest thing Marshall's going to have to overcome if she's going to win this fall.
The basic contours of the race remain unchanged. Burr is unpopular, while Marshall is unknown. For the seventh month in a row PPP finds more North Carolinians disapproving of Burr's work than giving him good marks- this month's spread is 38/42. Marshall's anonymity is limiting her ability to take full advantage of Burr's unpopularity though. She actually leads him 50-42 with voters who have an opinion about her, be it positive or negative. But only 46% of voters do have an opinion about her with 54% saying they don't know enough about her to have formed one.
North Carolina is ultimately going to be a resources issue for Democrats. Marshall can win the race but not without a lot of outside spending on her behalf. This is is the first time in the entire 2009-10 election cycle we've found Burr in a better position than Elizabeth Dole at a comparable time in 2007-2008 and that's because ads were being run in heavy rotation bashing Dole throughout the month of August last time. That didn't happen this year and Burr's in a stronger place because of it.
Burr has a 20 point lead with independents at 41-21, consistent with the sort of advantage PPP's been seeing for the GOP in North Carolina for most of the year. Burr has 75% of his party's vote locked up while Marshall is at 69% of Democrats.
North Carolina continues to clearly be Democrats' best chance to knock off a Republican incumbent. The question is just whether they'll have the money to do it.
Full results here
Once that Burr money advantage starts to manifest itself on TV, Marshall is dead. Especially, if Burr ruthlessly goes out and defines her.
ReplyDeleteThis could be like the Mike Tyson Michael Spinks fight.
I almost feel sorry for Elaine.
The DSCC knows what we all know, Burr isn't really on air yet, not even one ad mocking Marshall as a clown etc. or anything. Once Burr uses his money he'll win convincingly.
ReplyDeleteBurr has a 20 point lead among independents and the poll only shows him getting 75% of Republicans and 76% of McCain voters -- well, he'll get 95+% of both groups on election day.
ReplyDeleteThis race is over ... 'course it has been for months. Could be the least competitive Senate race NC has seen in a loooooong time.
Looks like that seat's curse will end and Burr will be re-elected. In a different year, he might well be in trouble, but not in this one. Hope he does a better job this time of else the GOP switches him out in six years.
ReplyDeleteSo the numbers shift by a point, well within the margin of error, at a point where neither candidate has really hit the pavement, and you think it's all over? Sorry, but the truth is, this race is just beginning. Tee 13% undecided vote tells me that there's a long way to go until November.
ReplyDeleteAt the very least, you guys usually ask about Kay Hagan's approval. No?
ReplyDelete"At the very least, you guys usually ask about Kay Hagan's approval. No?"
ReplyDeleteYeah, that should come in another release.
I wonder how much campaign cash Burr can transfer to Pantano, Johnson, Miller, and the national campaign committees? He's clearly not going to need all that money against Marshall.
ReplyDeleteMaybe Burr will put a couple million into GOTV and help lift NC legislative candidates to victory.
If NC is anything like the nation as a whole, voters will still prefer Republicans whether or not they personally like Burr.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gallup.com/poll/142730/Americans-Give-GOP-Edge-Election-Issues.aspx
And many who find Burr unfavorable do so because they wish their senator was further to the right. They certainly do not want their senator to even remotely resemble a corrupt leftist radical shakedown thug like Marshall.
http://www.carolinajournal.com/exclusives/display_exclusive.html?id=6359