John Hickenlooper is one of the strongest candidates Democrats have anywhere in the country this year. Dan Maes is one of the weakest the Republicans have. Put those things together and you have Hickenlooper beginning the general election with a significant advantage.
Hickenlooper leads Maes 50-38. He's getting 88% of the Democratic vote while Maes receives only 74% of the Republican vote and beyond that he has a 52-29 advantage with independents.
When you throw Tom Tancredo into the mix as a third party candidate Hickenlooper's lead becomes even wider. He gets 48% to 23% for Tancredo and 22% for Maes. Maes would still lead Tancredo with Republicans 48-32 but support for Maes from independents would nearly evaporate with Hickenlooper getting 46%, Tancredo 32, and Maes only 13%.
Virtually no candidates across the country this year are hitting a 50% favorability rating but that's where Hickenlooper is with Colorado voters. Only 33% have a negative opinion of him. Maes and Tancredo's numbers are as bad as Hickenlooper's are good. Only 23% of voters see Maes positively to 38% with a negative opinion and Tancredo's even weaker with 27% holding a favorable opinion of him and 50% with an unfavorable one.
There's not much of a path to victory for the GOP in this race right now.
Full results here
This is another sign that '12 wont' necessarily be the blow out for the Dems in Governors races that some might have thought. While certainly the GOP will gain some governors races in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania Wisconsin, among others--the Dems have a good shot of picking up GOP governorships in states like Colorado, Minnesota, Hawaii, Connecticut, Georgia, Texas, Florida and California. So many incumbent governors are polling poorly that it seems we will see a lot of governorships going from D to R and R to D.
ReplyDeleteP.S.
ReplyDeleteI was mistaken about Colorado being a Dem pick-up.
For curiosity's sake, how did McInnis do?
ReplyDeleteTrailed Hickenlooper 52-38. Got 24% to 48% for Hickenlooper and 22% for Tancredo in the three way.
ReplyDeleteInteresting. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteWhat I'm curious about (which you unfortunately didn't poll) is how a pure Hickenlooper-Tancredo matchup would go. I can imagine one of Maes or Tancredo falling behind on support as the election approaches and dropping out, or simply having his supporters migrate to the other more 'viable' candidate.
ReplyDeleteChuck T,
ReplyDeleteAs for Republican pick-ups, you might want to add Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Tennesee and Wyoming.
As far as Democratic pick-ups go; Minnesota - maybe, Hawaii - yes, Connecticut - likely, Georgia - not, Texas - not, Florida - not and California - unlikely. Add Masachusetts - as possible.
Real Clear Politics has it as a +8 net pick-up for the Republicans. Personally, I see an additional very likely 4 seat pickup for the GOP. But, we'll see - won't we?
"As far as Democratic pick-ups go; Minnesota - maybe, Hawaii - yes, Connecticut - likely, Georgia - not, Texas - not, Florida - not and California - unlikely. Add Masachusetts - as possible."
ReplyDeleteWe had Barnes winning in Georgia in February, but haven't polled that race since. We had White tied with Perry in Texas a few months ago; that one is going to be close, and I could see White eking it out because Perry seems to have overstayed his welcome. We also have Sink beating both Scott and McCollum in Florida as of last month. And no way Whitman beats Brown; I don't know anyone who seriously thinks she's more likely to win than Brown is. Oh, and Massachusetts wouldn't be a Dem pickup--Patrick is the incumbent running for re-election.
As for the GOP pickups, I'd agree or at least not have major quibbles with all but one of those--Maryland. It's going to be narrow, but you have to give the edge, as our latest poll did last month, to O'Malley in one of the country's most Democratic states.
We haven't polled Minnesota, so I'm not sure where that stands. And the last time we polled New Mexico in, I think, February, we had Denish over Martinez, and following their neighboring state's immigration law, we've consistently shown Hispanics trending massively toward Democrats in the Southwest--Arizona, Colorado, California, and Texas all showed this trend.