We're going to poll Illinois and Pennsylvania this coming weekend. Obviously we're going to look at the races for Governor and Senator in each state, but we should poll on beyond that? Always appreciate the helpful suggestions.
there are congressional races IL-10-which would show if obama's support is holding up among his base and Il-14 which is a textbook example of the sort of gop leaning district held by a recently elected democrat but challenged by an underfunded republican that define this cycle.
People, the title of the post says we are polling in IL and PA. We're asking what we should poll WITHIN those states, not what states to poll to begin with, which we've already decided.
Dustin, did you do baseball team favorites for White Sox, Cubs, and Cardinals at all? In PA, there are also two baseball teams, one in Philly, and the other in Pittsburgh. (I can't remember the exact team names)
With so many competitive congressional elections in both states, (and the fact that you won't poll individual elections), poll generic congressional ballot for those states.
Republicans are currently poised to takeover PA-GOV. They have a good lead in the State Senate. If they take over the State House, they control redistricting. Poll State Legislature generic ballot.
Ask what voters think is more important, the embellishing, or the bank story in Illinois.
Try to get some kind of geographic analysis in Illinois. Democrats did very well in the Chicago suburbs for the first time in 2008. Part of the reason was Obama was on the ballot. Is this continued strength or has Will County, DuPage County etc. reverted back to the "moderate" Kirk?
Get some geographic analysis in Pennsylvania. For the first time, Democrats did well in the suburbs of Philly (where they won the election, as Pittsburgh trended away from them) Is it short lived or are Chester, Delaware, Bucks County voting for Sestak?
Is Kirk too moderate, conservative, or too liberal?
If you do a Casey Senate 2012 poll, poll Jim Gerlach, the Congressman.
Would voters like to see Dick Durbin as Senate Majority Leader?
I know this race doesn't get a lot of attention, but the GOP is running a serious candidate in IL 09 against Schakowsky for the first time in more thana decade. There is a large Orthodox Jewish population, which leans very hard right, and the GOP candidate is an Orthodox Jew (as opposed to Schakowsky, who has attended J-Street events). She even mentioned her opponent last week, something she's never had to do before. Any chance for some localized polling here?
I'd like to know if Hillary Clinton is still popular in Penn and very interested to know her popularity in Illinois. By the way, great job on Colorado!
In Pennsylvania, ask whether they would support Arlen Specter being appointed to a cabinet-level position after he leaves office.
In Illinois, just for the hell of it, ask voter's opinion on the special senate election and the general senate election seperately. Given the closeness of the race, it is possible that voters may split their ballots.
In Pennsylvania, please ask the 2012 GOP primary with Rick Santorum included. Maybe you could also throw in an early look at Obama vs. any of the Republicans.
In Illinois, please ask if holding a special election for Obama`s seat on Nov. 2 is a good or a bad idea.
And also how people will vote in the special senate election and in the regular senate election.
I would poll a few competitive House races in PA. There's been a lot of talk about the GOP cleaning up in Hillary states, so these seats seem most likely to flip, if that is true. I think it'd be interesting to test that theory. I would suggest districts 3 (Dahlkemper), 4 (Altmire), 7 (open-Sestak), and 11 (Kanjorski) for sure, but 8 (Murphy), 10 (Carney), and 12 (Critz) could be interesting as well. You also could check in on Gerlach in 6 and Dent in 15 to see how they're holding up, being a couple of the very few potentially vulnerable House Republicans this cycle.
Actually, I just thought of something else, along the lines of a poll you did a few weeks ago in Nevada:
Ask whether voters see Toomey and Sestak as mainstream or extremist.
A lot of liberals have been calling Toomey extreme, and lumping him in with "Tea Party" libertarians like Paul and Angle. Yet most polls indicate that he doesn't seem to be in as much trouble as any of those candidates, in spite of the fact that Pennsylvania is a much bluer state than Nevada or Kentucky.
PA may lean Democratic, but it's also "somewhat" conservative on social issues, so it'd be interesting to see where they'd lean on gay marriage and such.
Micahel Roston suggested on Twitter that pollsters should ask respondents how they'd feel about a Mosque being built in their neighborhood. http://twitter.com/michaelroston/status/20901498440
Haven't heard from Arkansas in awhile.
ReplyDeleteWould not mind seeing Senate, House races (all four are up for grabs for the first time in forever) and the Governor's race.
there are congressional races IL-10-which would show if obama's support is holding up among his base and Il-14 which is a textbook example of the sort of gop leaning district held by a recently elected democrat but challenged by an underfunded republican that define this cycle.
ReplyDeleteI think Alaska would be interesting.
ReplyDeleteWith Huckabee now also behind Miller, the race between him and Murkowski might have tightened considerably.
Also the Palin favorability numbers and the governor's race would be interesting.
Please poll congressional races in Illinois, 9,10,11,14,17.
ReplyDeletePoll a potential Tom Ridge/Sen. Bob Casey matchup for 2012. Or in the alternative poll both of their favorability numbers.
ReplyDeletePeople, the title of the post says we are polling in IL and PA. We're asking what we should poll WITHIN those states, not what states to poll to begin with, which we've already decided.
ReplyDeletePlease no stupid sports questions, I guarantee you at least half the readers of this site don't know what sport the bulls are in
ReplyDeleteAre you going to poll these among likely voters like you will be doing with the Kos polls?
ReplyDeleteDustin, did you do baseball team favorites for White Sox, Cubs, and Cardinals at all? In PA, there are also two baseball teams, one in Philly, and the other in Pittsburgh. (I can't remember the exact team names)
ReplyDeleteWith so many competitive congressional elections in both states, (and the fact that you won't poll individual elections), poll generic congressional ballot for those states.
Republicans are currently poised to takeover PA-GOV. They have a good lead in the State Senate. If they take over the State House, they control redistricting. Poll State Legislature generic ballot.
Ask what voters think is more important, the embellishing, or the bank story in Illinois.
Try to get some kind of geographic analysis in Illinois. Democrats did very well in the Chicago suburbs for the first time in 2008. Part of the reason was Obama was on the ballot. Is this continued strength or has Will County, DuPage County etc. reverted back to the "moderate" Kirk?
Get some geographic analysis in Pennsylvania. For the first time, Democrats did well in the suburbs of Philly (where they won the election, as Pittsburgh trended away from them) Is it short lived or are Chester, Delaware, Bucks County voting for Sestak?
Is Kirk too moderate, conservative, or too liberal?
If you do a Casey Senate 2012 poll, poll Jim Gerlach, the Congressman.
Would voters like to see Dick Durbin as Senate Majority Leader?
I know this race doesn't get a lot of attention, but the GOP is running a serious candidate in IL 09 against Schakowsky for the first time in more thana decade. There is a large Orthodox Jewish population, which leans very hard right, and the GOP candidate is an Orthodox Jew (as opposed to Schakowsky, who has attended J-Street events). She even mentioned her opponent last week, something she's never had to do before. Any chance for some localized polling here?
ReplyDeleteSome suggestions, serious and not-so-serious:
ReplyDeleteBoth:
Medical marijuana
Marriage equality
14th Amendment
Illinois:
When I say the name 'Kirk' do you think of 'James T.' or 'Mark?'
If Abraham Lincoln were alive today would he be: A. Happy. B. Sad. C. Screaming and clawing at the inside of his coffin.
Cubs, White Sox, or neither?
Handgun ban opinions
Pennsylvania:
Rick Santorum popularity
Eagles, Steelers, or neither?
Which area do you live in: Philadelphia area, Pittsburgh area, or Pennsyltucky?
2012 GOP contest and legalizing marijuana
ReplyDeletePlease tell me you are not working for the Daily Kos?
ReplyDeleteI'll second 14th Amendment. Also generic Congressional and legislative ballots would be cool.
ReplyDeleteMaybe a question on Rangel and Waters to see if those scandals are resonating with voters or are mostly just confined to the Beltway.
I'd like to know if Hillary Clinton is still popular in Penn and very interested to know her popularity in Illinois. By the way, great job on Colorado!
ReplyDeleteWith so many corrupt incumbent governors in Illinois history, ask which governor was Illinois' favorite. Ask about Blago.
ReplyDeleteIn Pennsylvania, ask whether they would support Arlen Specter being appointed to a cabinet-level position after he leaves office.
ReplyDeleteIn Illinois, just for the hell of it, ask voter's opinion on the special senate election and the general senate election seperately. Given the closeness of the race, it is possible that voters may split their ballots.
PA TEA Party candidate for Gov
ReplyDeleteLibertarian Party Candidate for Gov
Sam Rohrer write in for Gov
Libertarian party candidate for Senate
See how much they take from Toomey and Corbett
In PA, Bob Casey vs Generic R. No Republican in the state is well known enough to test yet, other than Ridge, who wont run.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to see some downballot Illinois statewides polled. Comptroller and treasurer.
ReplyDeleteIn Pennsylvania, please ask the 2012 GOP primary with Rick Santorum included. Maybe you could also throw in an early look at Obama vs. any of the Republicans.
ReplyDeleteIn Illinois, please ask if holding a special election for Obama`s seat on Nov. 2 is a good or a bad idea.
And also how people will vote in the special senate election and in the regular senate election.
Thx.
The only thing I can think of that hasn't been suggested yet is a 2012 rematch between Casey and Santorum.
ReplyDeleteNothing in 2012! Theres too much to focus on 2010.
ReplyDeletePlease do some geographic breakdowns, generic legislative tests and please poll statewide constitutional offices in both states.
Don't forget to poll the Green Party candidates for governor, US Senate, etc.
ReplyDeleteIn Illinois: Who do you blame more for the state's financial crisis, Democrats or Republicans?
ReplyDeleteIn both states:
ReplyDeleteWould you like to see Hillary Clinton replace Joe Biden on the 2012 ticket?
2012 R primaries for prez
ReplyDelete"Please no stupid sports questions, I guarantee you at least half the readers of this site don't know what sport the bulls are in"
ReplyDeleteWhich Bulls--Chicago or Durham? Or Pamplona? ;)
"Dustin, did you do baseball team favorites for White Sox, Cubs, and Cardinals at all?"
Yeah, but we haven't officially released those in any states yet (except I think we did when we first polled baseball teams in CA, a few months ago).
BTW, Tom and I are huge baseball fans. You don't have to tell us who the teams or managers are.
"Please tell me you are not working for the Daily Kos?"
Can't because we are.
"The only thing I can think of that hasn't been suggested yet is a 2012 rematch between Casey and Santorum."
We did that last time we polled PA a couple months ago, and Casey won handily.
The Il-10 race is important and close. The race could have a major impact on the senate race too.
ReplyDeleteI would poll a few competitive House races in PA. There's been a lot of talk about the GOP cleaning up in Hillary states, so these seats seem most likely to flip, if that is true. I think it'd be interesting to test that theory. I would suggest districts 3 (Dahlkemper), 4 (Altmire), 7 (open-Sestak), and 11 (Kanjorski) for sure, but 8 (Murphy), 10 (Carney), and 12 (Critz) could be interesting as well. You also could check in on Gerlach in 6 and Dent in 15 to see how they're holding up, being a couple of the very few potentially vulnerable House Republicans this cycle.
ReplyDeleteActually, I just thought of something else, along the lines of a poll you did a few weeks ago in Nevada:
ReplyDeleteAsk whether voters see Toomey and Sestak as mainstream or extremist.
A lot of liberals have been calling Toomey extreme, and lumping him in with "Tea Party" libertarians like Paul and Angle. Yet most polls indicate that he doesn't seem to be in as much trouble as any of those candidates, in spite of the fact that Pennsylvania is a much bluer state than Nevada or Kentucky.
Primary numbers in both states would be nice
ReplyDeletePA:
ReplyDelete-2012 GOP primary, general election featuring Rick Santorum.
Both:
-Gay Marriage.
-14th Amendment.
-Medical marijuana/legalization (maybe).
PA may lean Democratic, but it's also "somewhat" conservative on social issues, so it'd be interesting to see where they'd lean on gay marriage and such.
"Primary numbers in both states would be nice"
ReplyDeleteThey already had their primaries.
Micahel Roston suggested on Twitter that pollsters should ask respondents how they'd feel about a Mosque being built in their neighborhood. http://twitter.com/michaelroston/status/20901498440
ReplyDeleteThat would be a good question for both states.