With Joe Sestak's victory in the Democratic primary and the poll bump that came with it now three months in the rear view mirror, Pat Toomey has taken a 45-36 lead in the Pennsylvania Senate race. That's a big change from the tie PPP saw in a June survey of the race but pretty similar to the solid Toomey lead our April survey showed.
Toomey's winning for the same reasons most Republican candidates across the country are doing well in key races right now:
-He has a 50-23 lead with independent voters.
-He's benefiting from a much more unified party, as he leads 74-9 with Republicans while Sestak is currently up only 64-15 with Democrats.
-This is our first poll of the race explicitly surveying likely voters and given the considerably greater enthusiasm on the Republican side we're seeing an electorate in the state that voted for John McCain by a point in 2008, in contrast to Barack Obama's actual 10 point victory in the state.
The biggest key to the race is probably Obama's considerably fallen popularity. His approval rating stands at only 40% with 55% of voters disapproving of him, one of the biggest declines from 2008 performance we've seen for him anywhere in the country. Part of Obama's low numbers is a reflection of the Republican trending voter pool in the state this year, but there are also more people who voted for Obama but disapprove of him now in Pennsylvania than there are most places. Our national poll last week found only 7% of Obama voters are now unhappy with the job he's doing but in Pennsylvania the figure is 15%. Toomey has a 14 point lead with those disaffected Obama voters, showing the extent to which those voters moving away from Obama are moving away from the Democratic Party in general.
There is indeed almost a total correlation between how voters feel about Obama and how they're planning to cast their ballots this fall. With those who approve of Obama, Sestak leads 75-6. But with those who disapprove Toomey's ahead 74-8 and with that being the much larger group it gives him the overall lead.
This may represent somewhat of a low point for Sestak. The undecided voters lean Democratic (they voted 52-36 for Obama) and it's hard to imagine the level of Democratic interest in the election going anywhere but up. But for now Toomey's in a pretty good position.
Full results here
Oops, now Rasmussen doesn't have the most GOP favorable polls after PPP also switched to likely voters.... Let the bashing begin.
ReplyDeleteEven Rasmussen has Sestak winning independents narrowly. How can the disparity be so great?
ReplyDeleteAlso, your June poll also had an electorate with McCain winning by a point. How can so much change when the likely voter screen is the same?
"Also, your June poll also had an electorate with McCain winning by a point. How can so much change when the likely voter screen is the same?"
ReplyDeleteAs I noted in the press release, while the '08 demographic didn't change in terms of margin, there are more Republicans and fewer Democrats in this sample, and the Dems who are intending to vote are more down on Obama than in June, and they aren't yet decided to vote for Sestak. Sestak got over 70% of his party's vote in the June poll, almost as much as Toomey did of the GOP, even though Toomey did still get more Dems than Sestak did Republicans. But now Sestak gets only 64% of Dems to Toomey's 74% of Republicans, and it's not because Toomey has increased his share of the Dems, but rather because about 10% more Dems are undecided than in June. So Tom's right that there is room for improvement in the Dem base, and chances are, they will come back home. Luckily for Sestak, independents are a very small group in PA, so if he can improve the morale of his base and turn them out, he could still win this race.
Luckily for Sestak, independents are a very small group in PA, so if he can improve the morale of his base and turn them out, he could still win this race.
ReplyDeleteIn related news: the DNC is counting on the as-yet-undiscovered ability of pigs to fly in order to win elections in November.
Stay tuned for more details...
It'd be interesting to see the Philly suburb numbers and compare them to Obama's vote share. What's happening around the country is that all the suburban voters that the Republicans bled over the last 20-25 over social issues and lack of hipness are SUDDENLY now leaving the Democrats due to contempt for Obama.
ReplyDeleteSestak is not winning independents. He can't be given there are more Dems in Pennsylvania and he's still losing by a statistically significant margin.
ReplyDeletePennsylvania is a microcosm on what is happening all around this country. It's simply across the board and Dems should not continue to be in denial by trying to argue technical accuracy statistical methods.
PPP is reflecting what many other polls are showing. Whether Sestak is losing by this amount or not is immaterial. The fact is if the election were held today he would lose.
"Sestak is not winning independents."
ReplyDeleteNo one said he is. In fact, we've said numerous times that Toomey is decisively.
"It's simply across the board and Dems should not continue to be in denial by trying to argue technical accuracy statistical methods."
Actually, it's not across the board. The Midwest is proving very difficult for Dems, but there are races, like in Colorado, where Dems are doing very well. And Dems are also taking advantage in some places of unpopular Republican governors, like in CA and even in TX. The mood is anti-incumbent more than anti-Democrat, so the Democrats' biggest fault in this climate is that they won in so many tough Republican areas in the last two cycles and are therefore defending more governorships and seats in Congress than are Republicans.
Matt said...
ReplyDeleteEven Rasmussen has Sestak winning independents narrowly. How can the disparity be so great?
So 50-23 Toomey is narrow is narrow for Sestak?
yeah. those great going dems, defending govs. when the dust clears and they have 17 govs and the GOP has 33 (or thereabouts), will the answer be that the dems were so popluar and so "good" in 06/08 the explain that?? in a redistricting year. those dems. the re-alignment has begun that was discussed in 08. and its the death and disintegration of the fractured weird crazy hoge podge of disparate and oftentimes diametrically opposed special interests that the dem party has been the last 20 years. too funny. "yeah, the dem givs are having hard time NOT because of their policies. cause they are just so dang good in 06 & 08!!". war is peace. freedom is slavery. and heres a good one: sestak has no where to go but UP! ha ha ha ha ha. yep. BHO will be MORE popular real soon. as soon as unemployment hits 10%. that'll help out those dems. but it certainly isnt HIS policies. its bushes fault. they just need to say THAT more. up up and away sestak. yeah, thats where you are headed. hee hee hee ho ho ho.
ReplyDeleteNo surprise likely voters prefer the sensible candidate, Pat Toomey.
ReplyDeleteThe mood is anti-"progressive" more than anti-incumbent. What the American people reject is the arrogance of Washington "progressives" in both parties. The advantage goes not to newcomers, but to conservatives.
ReplyDeleteSure thing, Christian. 'Sensible' Pat Toomey, Wall Street bond trader and lover of derivatives, is a Man of the People, and voters can sense it. We need to go back to Bush-era policies, because things were so good by 2008. Remember? 800,000 jobs lost every month? Must have been Obama's fault. See you in 2012 when he gets re-elected.
ReplyDeleteI was called for this poll. It was a robot asking the question. Not reliable.
ReplyDeleteTo Anonymous at 3:05 P.M.
ReplyDeleteWhen will your Democratic heros do something about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? They still defend them. Both Democrats and Republicans caused the economic collapse. The Federal Reserve easy money policy over the last 15 years helped create the mess. Most Americans think both parties stink.