When Mike Castle decided to run for the Senate it seemed like a bad news day for Democrats but it's actually turned out to be one of the better things that's happened for them this cycle. With Castle's defeat in the primary Tuesday Democrats will likely hold onto the Senate seat, and our polling continues to find John Carney with a double digit lead in his bid to flip the state's House seat to the Democratic column.
Carney begins the general election with a 48-37 lead over Glen Urquhart. In contrast to most races across the country Carney has a more unified base, winning 75% of Democrats to Urquhart's 66% of Republicans. Urquhart does have a 38-36 lead with independents but that's not nearly as large as most GOP candidates across the country have and certainly not as large as he needs to win a strongly Democratic leaning state like Delaware.
These numbers do represent a tightening since PPP's last poll of the race in August which found Carney ahead 48-30. What's important to note about those numbers is that Carney has remained steady. Urquhart is just increasing his support as he becomes better known and locks up more of the Republican base.
Carney has solid favorability numbers with 34% seeing him favorably and 24% unfavorably. Interestingly Urquhart has pulled even with Carney in name recognition and he's seen positively by 30% of voters and negatively by 29%.
Although it was commonly believed Urquhart would be a weaker general election candidate than primary opponent Michele Rollins, who he narrowly edged, she trailed Carney 47-37 in a head to head suggesting there was negligible difference in the November viability of the two Republicans.
Democrats aren't going to pick up much this fall but this seat continues to look like it will go into their column.
Full results here
That's not a particularly strong result for Carney. Weak favorability, running against a decent opponent with a supercharged conservative base?
ReplyDeleteUrquhart is already running ahead of O'Donnell and has the ability to get a fairly unified Republican vote at his back.
speaking of races Democrats can win, Hickenlooper's new ad "Cheap" brags about his ability to save millions as mayor. Tea Party frugality is all the rage in both parties. Democrats are happy to steal Tea Party ideas, just refuse to give credit where credit is due.
ReplyDeleteThough Democrats have a 17pt registration edge in Delaware, O'Donnell only trails by 16 (PPP) or 11 (RR).
ReplyDeleteO'Donnell is already outperforming the dreaded favorability gap. Though only 34% disapprove of Coons, 42% want to vote for O'Donnell. Though 58% approve of Coons, only 53% want to vote for him.
Christine O'Donnell led Coons 41-39 in July and is capable of leading again once the damage from the primary subsides. O'Donnell was seen favorably 43/33 before the accusations of the primary heated up.
When only 25% of national voters believe current government policies have the country on the right track, why would they vote for another rubber stamp for the disastrous Obama-Durbin agenda?
Your post comparing Castle and Murkowski was very instructive. Pretty soon we should be seeing a post comparing Coons and Joe Manchin, popular Democrat executives that just can't put their races away. The reality of Obama's extreme agenda is more terrifying than any fantasy Democrats can invent about principled conservative champions of the people like Christine O'Donnell or John Raese.
ReplyDelete"That's not a particularly strong result for Carney."
ReplyDeleteCastle never won this seat by less than 12 (and that was in his first race when it was an open seat), usually by 30+. Now a Democrat leads by 11, similar to Castle's first race.
"Weak favorability"
+10 is a pretty good place to be in this climate. Few have better favorabilities than that.
"Democrats are happy to steal Tea Party ideas, just refuse to give credit where credit is due."
Being fiscally responsible is not a new or Tea Party-innovated idea. Contrary to your fantasy, Democrats are no less fiscally responsible than Republicans.
"+10 is a pretty good place to be in this climate. Few have better favorabilities than that."
ReplyDeleteI was referring to his favorable rating alone, which is barely ahead of Urquhart's. Not impressive for a twice-elected statewide office holder.
Net, Urquhart is +1 even after a contested primary.
I'm very surprised to find that this is a real race.
"I was referring to his favorable rating alone, which is barely ahead of Urquhart's. Not impressive for a twice-elected statewide office holder."
ReplyDeleteGenerally, unless you're the governor or a senator, hardly anyone knows who you are, and even then, a surprising number have no opinion. That includes the Lt. Governor. In a small state like Delaware, you would think more people would know who their elected leaders are, but considering that the media markets for the state are mainly out-of-state, it's also hard to get face time on the evening news.
Most of the population of Delaware is in one county. Surely Carney has visited it at some point?
ReplyDeleteMaybe he's the demure, shy, retiring type of politician. Maybe he didn't campaign at all from 2008-2010.
Let's get real, here. Save the bull for the blog posts and leave the comments to people who know what they're talking about.
Though I would agree that Christine O'Donnell faces an uphill battle in winning Delaware's Senatorial seat in November, I most certainly wouldn't count her out in doing so.
ReplyDeleteI have long said that any Democratic candidate with less than a 10 point polling lead over his/her Republican opponent on November 1, will be highly vulnerable in that state's elections.
Keep in mind that Republican voters are, in many polls, twice +/- as likely to state that they are "very enthusiastic" about voting in this year's mid term elections than what their Democratic counterparts are reporting (Gallup has it at 50/25).
Afterall,what kind of chances were given to Scott Brown beating Martha Coakley in, of all states, Massachusetts - 50 days out from that state's November elections - in a state where Democratic voters outnumber Republican voters by a 3 to 1 margin? Not much!
Like I said, do not count Christine O'Donnell out in this one. It would, in my opinion, be quite foolish in doing so.
"I have long said that any Democratic candidate with less than a 10 point polling lead over his/her Republican opponent on November 1, will be highly vulnerable in that state's elections."
ReplyDeleteShe's down by 16, and it's only mid-September.
"Keep in mind that Republican voters are, in many polls, twice +/- as likely to state that they are "very enthusiastic" about voting in this year's mid term elections than what their Democratic counterparts are reporting (Gallup has it at 50/25)."
That's already reflected in our polls.
I'll also add, Al, that Brown had a +19 favorability, pulled almost 20% of Democrats against Coakley, and won independents 2:1. Those trends are not in O'Donnell's favor. She has a -21 favorability, gets only 13% of Dems to Coons' 25% of Republicans, and is down with independents by 6.
ReplyDeleteIn Massachusetts Democrats outnumber Republicans 37%-12% with 51% independent/other. For the most part independents are less likely to vote. In 2006 and 2008 Democrats outnumbered Republicans 42%-19% and 43%-17%. While exit polls aren't available for the Brown election it could've been 35%-22%. A candidate could win taking independents 60%-40%.
ReplyDeleteIn Delaware Democrats outnumber Republicans 47%-29%, with only 24% independent. In 2008 the breakdown was 48%-31%-21%. PPP has a 47%-38%-23% party breakdown. If Coons locks up Democrats, O'Donnell would have to get 90% of Republicans and 70% of independents.
RINOs have been told to hit the road, so now only is it doubtful she'll get 90% of Republicans, but many RINOs will stay home. So getting the Republican turn-out will be difficult. Getting 70% of independents is way beyond anything she can hope for.
Dustin,
ReplyDeleteLike I previously stated, Christine O'Donnell has an uphill battle in winning the Senatorial seat in Delaware, but don't count her out in doing so - that that would be foolish in doing so. Whether she does or doesn't, was never intended to suggest that she will, in fact, accomplish that task. My position in that matter hasn't changed one iota. Lets face it, his year's elections have so far produced an awful lot of surprises and I suspect will continue to do so up to and including the general elections on November 2nd. Don't forget that O'Donnell was virtually tied with Coons in July. By the way, your mention of Coons having a i6% point lead (Rasmussen has it at 11%) and this being mid September -only means that O'Donnell has 16+ weeks to make up that very doable difference. Come November, we can "talk" again. If O'Donnell's numbers haven't significantly improved (or better yet) between now and then, I will readily admit to you and PPP's readers that I was wrong - if, in fact, you are or will be willing to do the same.
By the way, I apologize for not including PPP's enthusiasm numbers, that I so readily attributed to Gallup. I generally try to give credit where credit is due. It was purely an oversight on my behalf.
By the way, have a good day!
"has 16+ weeks to make up that very doable difference."
ReplyDeleteShe has 6 weeks, not 16, and she's down 16, with the internals not favorable to her turning it around.