Polling PPP released yesterday showed that North Carolinians are generally leaning toward supporting Republicans for the Legislature this year. One thing that has to be helping GOP prospects is the unpopularity of the state's current elected Democrats.
Barack Obama, Bev Perdue, and Kay Hagan are each at 50% disapproval or higher with likely voters for the election in North Carolina this fall. Obama's approval spread is 43/54, Perdue's is 30/52, and Hagan's is 35/50.
How people are planning to vote this fall in the state is highly correlated with how they feel about Obama. Folks who like the President are planning to vote Democratic by an 86-5 margin but those who do not like Obama are going toward the Republicans 85-5. With a majority in the state unhappy with Obama that's a big problem for Democrats and it's a change from past election cycles where the party held on at the state level because folks separated out their feelings about national Democrats from North Carolina Democrats.
Most notably Obama, Perdue, and Hagan all face at least 2:1 disapproval from independents. For Obama it's 32/64, for Perdue it's 21/57, and for Hagan it's 20/62. Against that backdrop it's not surprising independents aren't inclined to put any more Democrats in office and that's reflected in the large leads Richard Burr and Republican candidates on the generic ballot have with that group.
Democrats would probably be well advised to keep these folks off the campaign trail in the state this fall, as each of them is much more of a turnoff to Republicans than a positive with Democrats. 89% of Republicans disapprove of Obama to 78% of Democrats approving, for Perdue those numbers are 74% and 51%, and for Hagan those numbers are 79% and 62%.
It's just another thing Democrats will have to overcome this year as they try to maintain Legislative control and pick up a Senate seat.
Full results here
The Senate campaign is over. Who are you trying to kid, here?
ReplyDeleteThe campaign for legislature is still ongoing but right now it looks like Republicans will take over the House and Senate by a fair margin.
Heading into 2012, the question is whether Democrats will push out Bev Purdue or sit back and watch her get trounced by Pat McCrory.
You may want to start polling Roy Cooper vs Perdue, Richard Moore vs Perdue, or ballot testing replacement candidates vs McCrory.
If the GOP takes the state legislature, what are the effects on redistricting, I wonder? Does the Gov. have veto power over it or does an independent board draw the map? And is the current map considered friendly to either side - would redistricting make much of a difference in the US House seats?
ReplyDeleteZornoph,
ReplyDeleteThe current map is friendly to the Dems, of course, since they drew it. Just look at the way they carved up Wake County to benefit themselves in the 2nd, 4th and 13th districts. Etc, etc, but of course what makes one district more Dem often makes another more GOP.
The legislature draws the map, and the congressional districts are very polarized in terms of partisan composition. Of late, it's rare to have a competitive congressional race on either side here. Kissell and Shuler are the most vulnerable, though McIntyre is another Blue Dog who has to buck the party on key votes.
ReplyDelete