How big of a problem is Obama's unpopularity for Democratic candidates? We're finding that almost no one who disapproves of the President is planning to vote Democratic for key offices this year. And obviously if you're in a state where the Obama disapprovers make the majority, that makes it virtually impossible for you to win if you can't pick up some of those folks.
Here are the numbers on how Democratic candidates are doing with voters who disapprove of Obama in key races we've polled over the last months:
| Candidate | Office | % from Obama Disapprovers |
| Alex Sink | Florida Governor | 14% |
| Dan Onorato | Pennsylvania Governor | 11% |
| Lee Fisher | Ohio Senate | 9% |
| Charlie Melancon | Louisiana Senate | 9% |
| Joe Sestak | Pennsylvania Senate | 8% |
| Ethan Berkowitz | Alaska Governor | 8% |
| Scott McAdams | Alaska Senate | 7% |
| Elaine Marshall | North Carolina Senate | 6% |
| Alexi Giannoulias | Illinois Senate | 6% |
| Robin Carnahan | Missouri Senate | 6% |
| Ted Strickland | Ohio Governor | 6% |
| Pat Quinn | Illinois Governor | 4% |
| Kendrick Meek | Florida Senate | 1% |
Sink's 14% is largely the product of a fracturing Republican primary, and we'll see if those numbers hold true as that gets to be more and more in the rear view mirror. Onorato's ability to win over more folks who don't like Obama than most Democratic candidates may be an indication that he's the right candidate running in the wrong cycle.
For the most part though we're finding that Democratic candidates are doing only as well as the President's approval numbers. And with a majority of voters disapproving of Obama in most states that's a really, really big problem for the party this fall.
These numbers make me worry about Kirk in Illinois. A large percentage of the Obama-approvers are going to come home for him in November, *and* he's getting 6% of Obama-disapprovers?
ReplyDeleteWhat percentage of Obama-approvers is Kirk going to get in return?
That makes me think that the GOP is up in the ME-Gov race. I am curious to see if they are also up in ME-02.
ReplyDeleteRick Scott has gone full bore since the primary, wrapping that Obama anchor 'round and 'round Alex Sink.
ReplyDeleteRick Scott will get people back to work / A vote for Sink is a vote for Obama.
How do you think that will turn out?
Onorato can do well with voters who disapprove of Obama because he constantly touts his record of cutting "waste and inefficiencies" in government "saving millions", "balanced the budgets six years in a row without once raising property taxes", reformed government by hiring professional managers and combating patronage and cronyism, eliminating county offices (held by Democrats), so government "works for us".
ReplyDeleteNotice how his issues sound like those of a Tea Party candidate. If his ad didn't say "the Democrat" in the final seconds, you would think Onorato was a Tea Party favorite. Once again, Democrats need to become more like the Tea Party to be electable.
An anti-tax, pro-growth record is critical for Democrats to separate themselves from the tax-and-spend leftists in Washington. Democrats must make themselves sound like Tea Party candidates in order to sound mainstream. Governor-candidates will be more able to do this than congressmen or senators.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j52UI1E18Iw
http://www.governing.com/blogs/politics/Dan-Onorato-Pennsylvania.html
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ReplyDeleteMaine has multiple candidates. Five are on the ballot and three are polling (in Rasmussen's polls) at 15%+.
ReplyDeleteIt's also a state which has elected two independent Governors and, because of the many candidates running for governor many years, the winner often gets less than a majority of the vote. In the last governor's election, the winner got under 40% of the vote.
So the Obama-disapprovers could end up splitting their vote, allowing the Obama-approvers to join together in voting for Mitchell.
Also, Maine allows people to register the vote on the day of the election. So this could be a factor, too, enabling people now not classified as likely voters to vote.
Then this means Dems in safe seats should worry about their future. Is a safe seat polling +20 now? Under that should a Dem be worried?
ReplyDeleteFor the GOP is a safe seat polling +5?
This also means the Dems are going to run out of cash before the GOP does. They have far more seats to defend and many more in danger of losing.
"This is an encouraging season for education reform, and the latest development is a bipartisan political breakout on vouchers in the unlikely state of Pennsylvania.
ReplyDeleteLast month, and to widespread surprise, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Dan Onorato came out in support of school vouchers for underprivileged kids."
Once again, we see that Democrats must run as conservatives if they are to be electable.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704147804575455782883586338.html
"Also, Maine allows people to register the vote on the day of the election. So this could be a factor, too, enabling people now not classified as likely voters to vote."
ReplyDeleteThat's unlikely to have much impact in a midterm election. In a presidential year, it could have a minor impact.
"This also means the Dems are going to run out of cash before the GOP does. They have far more seats to defend and many more in danger of losing."
Luckily the Dems have more cash to begin with.
"Once again, we see that Democrats must run as conservatives if they are to be electable."
You're a crock if you think vouchers are conservative. They're handouts.