With the exception of Rand Paul the other five Republican candidates with positive favorability numbers also avoided serious primary opposition. John Raese in West Virginia has the second strongest numbers at 41/35 (+6.) The other three are folks strongly favored to win Senate races even though their states went for Barack Obama in 2008- Marco Rubio in Florida, Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, and Rob Portman in Ohio.
On the other end of the popularity spectrum are the five nominees who had arguably the most competitive primaries. Christine O'Donnell is the least popular followed by Ken Buck, Sharron Angle, Joe Miller, and Kelly Ayotte. There's no doubt Republican chances looked better in Delaware, Nevada, Alaska, and New Hampshire before the tough primary contests and the verdict is still out on Colorado.
Contested primaries aren't always a bad thing but when you look at which GOP candidates voters like this year and which ones they don't it's pretty clear they were indeed a bad thing for Republicans at least this time around.
Here are the favorability numbers:
| Candidate | State | Favorability | Spread |
| Ron Johnson | Wisconsin | 46/34 | +12 |
| John Raese | West Virginia | 41/35 | +6 |
| Rand Paul | Kentucky | 45/40 | +5 |
| Marco Rubio | Florida | 40/37 | +3 |
| Pat Toomey | Pennsylvania | 36/33 | +3 |
| Rob Portman | Ohio | 29/28 | +1 |
| Roy Blunt | Missouri | 41/42 | -1 |
| Dino Rossi | Washington | 43/48 | -5 |
| Carly Fiorina | California | 34/42 | -8 |
| Mark Kirk | Illinois | 26/34 | -8 |
| Kelly Ayotte | New Hampshire | 35/47 | -12 |
| Joe Miller | Alaska | 36/52 | -16 |
| Sharron Angle | Nevada | 36/52 | -16 |
| Ken Buck | Colorado | 26/46 | -20 |
| Christine O’Donnell | Delaware | 29/50 | -21 |
This is more ignorant than your usual spin.
ReplyDeleteTake Angle, for instance: her ratings coming out of the primary were quite good, and only dropped afterward. After all, she won because she WASN'T the target of many negative attacks.
And you don't think Marco Rubio had a bruising primary? I seem to remember him having an opponent at one point. And you haven't even done recent polls for half these races. And, and, and...
To say nothing of the impact on overall name recognition, vetting, selection of quality candidates, campaigning experience, improved organizational strength, and added enthusiasm.
I guess you're running out of plausible ways to manufacture a favorable narrative.
I hope you do a Colorado Senate poll soon as I would be very interested in how that race is shaping up--especially given Buck's unfav to fav ratio.
ReplyDeleteGreat stuff Tom. I would add that in addition to the tough primaries affecting favorability through the airing of negative ads, direct attacks, etc., I think most of these candidates had to run far to the right to win their primary and, thus, lost favorability amongst independent and moderate Republican voters (not to mention Democrats). I would also expect Raese's numbers to fall as Manchin starts attacking him, but that's just a guess.
ReplyDelete"And you haven't even done recent polls for half these races."
ReplyDeleteAll of those numbers reflect polls done in either August or September, except Nevada, which was done in July.
Interesting way to approach the numbers, and it's probably right to a degree. Though it depends on what you mean by a contested primary, since some of these were contested but not very well (Kirk, Rossi, Paul).
ReplyDeleteAlso, the people at the bottom (Angle and O'Donnell) were tea party candidates elected in states Obama carried easily in 2008, so their numbers would be down even if they sailed to the nomination.
I have a wacky suggestion for your next poll -- NY-SEN! We have narrow Gillibrand leads of 1 and 6; is it really that close?
While comparing some of your/PPP's approval numbers with those reported by Rasmussen, I quickly came to realize a rather sizable difference between the two. Here they are:
ReplyDeleteRON JOHNSON:
PPP; 46/34 (+12)
Ras; 61/33 (+28)
JOHN RAESE:
PPP; 41/35 (+6)
Ras; 53/41 (+8)
MARCO RUBIO:
PPP; 40/37 (+3)
Ras; 53/42 (+11)
PAT TOOMEY:
PPP; 36/33 (+3)
Ras; 57/33 (+24)
ROB PORTMAN:
PPP; 29/28 (+1)
Ras; 52/27 (+25)
CHRISTINA O'DONNELL:
PPP; 29/50 (-21)
Ras; 33/35 (-2)
KEN BUCK:
PPP; 26/46 (-20)
Ras; 49/44 (+5)
SHARON ANGLE:
PPP; 36/52 (-16)
Ras; 45/51 (-6)
JOE MILLER:
PPP; 36/52 (-16)
Ras; 45/51 (-6)
RAND PAUL:
PPP; 45/40 (+5)
Ras; 56/39 (+17)
ROY BLUNT:
PPP; 41/42 (-1)
Ras; 53/42 (+11)
DINO ROSSI:
PPP; 43/48 (-5)
Ras; 50/48 (+2)
CARLEY FLORINA:
PPP; 34/42 (-8)
Ras; 47/44 (+3)
MARK KIRK:
PPP; 26/34 (-8)
Ras; 47/46 (+1)
KELLY AYOTTE:
PPP; 35/47 (-12)
Ras; 56/39 (+17)
In total, there exists an average gap differential between the two of 15%. Did I miss something - or what?