Thank you to everyone who voted in our 'eastern states' poll on where to do polls the final week of the election. The winners were New Hampshire, Maine, and Connecticut. I should note that we may be polling New Hampshire for Daily Kos this weekend and if the statewide races are not sufficiently competitive we may consider that to be our final poll there and do South Carolina instead, which was the fourth place finisher. We don't need to do 2 polls in less than a week finding Kelly Ayotte up by 8 and John Lynch up by 10. But if one of the races is within 5 points we will do a second New Hampshire poll.
We had said earlier this week that we would definitely poll Wisconsin in our final set of polls but we're going to take it off the 'guaranteed' list and replace it with Kentucky. You can vote for a Wisconsin poll if you want one. Here are the choices for our final three non-eastern time zone polls:
-Arizona
-Arkansas
-Iowa
-Louisiana
-Minnesota
-New Mexico
-Oregon
-Texas
-Wisconsin
Voting is open until Friday night
I'm voting for Texas. Polls showed White behind by mid-single digits; then White swept all but one major Texas newspaper endorsement and Gov. Perry started taking heat from the White and Glass campaigns over improper use of state funds. I think that race may be quite close on Election Day.
ReplyDeleteDisappointed PPP won't poll Vermont this weekend, but that's the way the cookie crumbles. Seems like New Hampshire is pretty close to safe Democratic on the gubernatorial end and pretty close to safe Republican on the Senate side. I'm looking forward to the Maine and Connecticut results, though.
It would be interesting to see who many (and which) voters believe there is no constitutional separation of Church and State -- particularly relevant in Minnesota (where the Republican SoS candidate claimed this) and Delaware.
ReplyDeleteLet's do Texas guys, Perry vs. White seems like it could be the most important gubernatorial race out of the choices we have. Democrats are four seats shy from taking the house in the state, and with the possibility of having a Democrat in the governor's mansion. the redistricting possibilities could be a game changer in how Texas politics function for the next ten years, if not longer.
ReplyDeleteWisconsin must be in the list.
ReplyDeleteFlorida can be less competitive than Wisconsin, and Ohio and North Carolina less still.
If Arizona somehow finishes 3rd, will you poll it twice, because you already poll it for DailyKos this weekend ?
ReplyDeleteOr will you poll the 4th instead ?
Minnesota and Oregon. And that's it.
ReplyDelete"Florida can be less competitive than Wisconsin, and Ohio and North Carolina less still."
ReplyDeleteBut Florida has a competitive gubernatorial contest, which is the main reason it's a lock for being polled.
Dustin, A Sink is taking an average of 5 points of advantage in the last polls. If you wish include a competitive gubernatorial election, you can include Oregon or Vermont. Florida and Ohio are less interesting.
ReplyDelete"Dustin, A Sink is taking an average of 5 points of advantage in the last polls. If you wish include a competitive gubernatorial election"
ReplyDeleteI know; we've had Sink up in both of our last two polls, though it's closer now than before the primary, and others have Scott up. 5 points is within the margin of error, certainly still very competitive. We're only going to do OR if it wins the vote; VT lost. Fewer people are interested in those races.
It is so sad Dustin, because Vermont races are far more interesting since the point of find competitive races.
ReplyDeleteIf Minnesota get selected please poll the race for state auditor, the rematch between Otto and Anderson. Would be possible?
Any chance for another Florida Senate poll??
ReplyDeleteWisconsin. It would be nice to see something compare to the St. Norbert's poll showing a 2 point race.
ReplyDelete"If Minnesota get selected please poll the race for state auditor, the rematch between Otto and Anderson. Would be possible?"
ReplyDeleteNo, we won't be doing that.
"Any chance for another Florida Senate poll??"
Day before the election, yeah, but not between now and then.
"Wisconsin. It would be nice to see something compare to the St. Norbert's poll showing a 2 point race."
We are doing WI, but I have a feeling it's not going to be nearly that close.