A majority of North Carolinians continue to be unhappy with Bev Perdue's job performance and the relationship between that and likely Republican legislative gains this fall shouldn't be underestimated.
Perdue's the face of Democrats in state government and her approval rating continues to languish at 35% with 51% of voters disapproving of her. She's starting to see some improvement in her numbers with her own party's voters, pushing her favor with Democrats to 57%. But she continues to be toxic with independents at a 25/64 approval spread and whatever limited appeal she may have ever had to Republicans is gone. Only 8% of them like the job she's doing.
When you have a highly unpopular Governor that's going to take a toll on your party's legislative candidates and Republicans continue to hold a 50-42 lead on the generic legislative ballot. That's fueled mainly by a 50-27 advantage with independents and an incredible degree of GOP unity. While 17% of Democrats say they're planning to support Republican candidates this fall, only 2% of Republicans say they'll go back in the other direction and vote Democratic.
If Republicans really do end up having an 8% advantage on the legislative vote in November they will almost definitely gain control of both the House and the Senate. But many legislative Democrats have a long history of outperforming the general leanings of their districts and if that remains the case again this year the party could narrowly retain control.
Back to Perdue's numbers- while her approval rating is better than it has been some months over the last year and a half what might be most distressing for her is that just 18% of voters in the state think she's improved on her first year performance during her second year in the Governor's mansion. 27% they think she's gotten worse and 55% feel she's doing about the same, which is not a good sign given how dimly voters viewed her after year one. Part of her problem may be a failure to communicate with average voters. 48% think her communications efforts have been ineffective while only 36% think she's doing a good job on that front.
Perdue still has time to rehabilitate her image for her own reelection campaign but it looks like it's too late for her to be anything but a liability for Democratic candidates across the state this fall.
Full results here
After November a question NC Democrats must consider is whether to allow Perdue to run for re-election in 2012. If she doesn't improve her standing, I could see the state party push her out and bring in another candidate.
ReplyDeleteNational Democrats have only targeted two NC legislative races for help: Patsy Keever's race in the House and the Dickson-Meredith state senate race.
ReplyDeleteBut neither of those races in Democrat-friendly districts is likely to be the difference-maker for a majority. If Keever loses it will be in a 20+ seat Republican pickup, and Meredith would be one of 10-12 Republican state senate victors.
Democrats have, in effect, already conceded the loss of both houses of the NC legislature.
Of course, in PPP world this means Marshall is gaining on Burr. She just needs to run more ads.
ReplyDeleteIt'll be interesting to see what kind of budget Bev proposes next year, after papering things over the last two years and relying entirely on higher taxes and federal stimulus giveaways.
ReplyDeleteBev Perdue is the Kathleen Blanco of North Carolina - one final gasp of Democrat corruption and incompetence before the adults take over.
"Bev" Perdue is a drag on NC, period.
ReplyDeleteDean and Tom,
ReplyDeleteWe believe your analysis of these numbers is not only unfair but wrong.
Gov. Perdue’s net job approval has improved by five percentage points since May, according to PPP’s own surveys. Her support among Democrats has increased by 18 points.
Those same polls show that the support for Democrats in legislative races has remained the same.
Voters are not angry with Democrats. They are not angry with any one party. They are angry with incumbents, period, and that anger shows in polls nationwide. It’s easy to draw a bull’s eye on the one person in power who is seen all the time. Why do they see Bev Perdue? Because she gets out of Raleigh – out of the capital – in the streets talking to real people and working to create jobs and make North Carolina’s economy better for the people.
Here are the numbers that matter:
North Carolina ranked fourth in the nation for job creation.
30,000 jobs created and $5.2 Billion in investment.
As USA Today recently reported, North Carolina is one of a handful of states leading the nation out of the recession, ranking No. 4 for income gains.
North Carolina has been recognized for the best business climate in the nation.
CNBC declared North Carolina No. 4 among the Top States for Business this year.
North Carolina was awarded $400 million in the federal “Race to the Top” grant for Gov. Perdue’s innovative “Career and College – Ready, Set, Go!” education initiative.
Nineteen months into the Perdue administration, people are angry because we’re in hard times. But times would be harder without Gov. Perdue’s unflinching commitment to growing jobs and making North Carolina better place to live and work.
Other Numbers that matter:
ReplyDeleteNorth Carolina ranked fourth in the highest tax increase in the nation last year, behind CA, NY, and NJ
- North Carolina has been ranked by the Small Business and Entrepreneurship Council as one of the worst tax systems for entrepreneurship in the country. Throwing 300/yr credit for hiring and calling it H.E.L.P. was a joke.
- $30,000. The fine levied after she failed to report campaign flights. Governor Perdue's campaign continues to be reviewed by the SBI, at the request of fellow Democrat DA Willoughby. Amendment after amendment and there are still questions.
- 3.3 Billion. The State's projected deficit next year.
Drag is an understatement. The Dems only hope is to find someone else to run against what will likely be McCrory. And next time she won't have Obama to pull her past him.
That was funny.
ReplyDeleteHow many incumbent *conservative* incumbents are sweating reelection? in NC and nationally?
Seems to me the backlash is against tax-and-spend big govt politicians, and Bev has raised taxes and spent NC into a $3 billion budget hole.
While I commend the Purdue people for commenting on the poll, I can't help but notice you don't challenge any of the actual data collected by PPP.
ReplyDeleteOne thing I've learned about being a Republican reader of this blog is that sometimes the numbers favor you, and sometimes they don't, but you can't fight the data itself. If you want to push talking points, there must be a better forum for that.
"Voters are not angry with Democrats."
I think you mean they're not *only* angry with Democrats. But they are definitely angry with this one, and your talking points would probably be better spent on the 48% of people who think her communication efforts have been ineffective.
People aren't angry with Democrats?
ReplyDeleteIs that why Democrats are on the brink of losing 40+ seats in the U.S. House? Or how about 6-8 U.S. Senate seats? Or how about losing both houses in the state legislature?
But voters aren't angry with Democrats.
I emailed Gov. Perdue to complain about vehicle inspections. I was recently ripped off by a garage and asked her to do something about the ridiculous inspections. My email was answered by one of her staff. She did not take the time to reply to my email. I am a taxpaying North Carolina citizen and her failure to personally answer my email offended me. I will not vote for her when she is up for reelection. No wonder her approval rating is so low.
ReplyDelete