The Nevada Senate race is headed for a photo finish with Sharron Angle leading Harry Reid just 47-46 on PPP's final poll of the race. The survey indicates that Reid takes a 50-46 lead with early voters into election day but that those still planning to vote tomorrow are intending to support Angle by a 48-40 margin.
Democratic voters in Nevada really hold Reid's fate in their hands by whether they show up at the polls tomorrow or not. Angle's 1 point lead is built on an electorate that supported Barack Obama by only 4 points in 2008, in contrast to his actual 12 point victory in the state. That means a lot of Democratic leaning voters aren't planning to vote tomorrow and if even a small percentage of them can be rousted out of complacency to go vote for Reid it might be enough to put him over the top.
Both candidates are getting just a shade under 80% from voters in their own party. Angle has the slight overall advantage because she's ahead 52-38 with independents. Regardless of who wins the election tomorrow Nevada will have a Senator it's not particularly fond of. Only 44% of voters have a favorable opinion of Angle to 53% with a negative one and Reid's approval rating is just 42% with 55% of voters disapproving of him.
There's a lot more clarity in the Governor's race: Brian Sandoval is going to be the next Governor of Nevada. He leads Rory Reid 55-44. Sandoval has proven to be by far and away the most appealing candidate on the ballot in the state this year- 56% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to only 33% who view him negatively. He's winning independents by 23 points and taking 22% of the Democratic vote.
Full results here
Your own final poll from 2008 had Obama+4 which exactly matches your result asking 2010 voters whom they voted for, even though Obama won NV by 12 points. Did you ever find out what caused this discrepancy.
ReplyDeleteIn response to "Wolf of Aquarius": Are you kidding? Do you REALLY expect the pollsters to ever try to explain this (or any other) discrepency???
ReplyDeleteBeing a pollster means never having to say you're sorry.
Tom/Dustin/PPP,
ReplyDeleteThough I quite often disagree with you guys/PPP and some of your polling numbers, I nonetheless wanted to thank all of you for what you're doing there. Though it's been a bit contentious at time, it's also been a pleasure reading (and debatably responding to them), your polling and commentaries throughout this voting cycle. Thanks again and good luck.