If you look at Obama's poll numbers and those of his leading Republican rivals at the end of last year and compare them to where they are now you find Obama slightly less popular, Mike Huckabee slightly less popular, and Mitt Romney slightly less popular. Only Sarah Palin has seen a shift of greater than 5 points in her numbers- she's a good deal less well liked now than she was at the end of 2009. Here's how the numbers stack up:
| Candidate | 09 Numbers | 09 Spread | 10 Numbers | 10 Spread | Shift |
| Obama | 49/47 | +2 | 47/50 | -3 | -5 |
| Huckabee | 35/35 | Even | 39/40 | -1 | -1 |
| Palin | 41/50 | -9 | 38/55 | -17 | -8 |
| Romney | 32/36 | -4 | 36/42 | -6 | -2 |
When you look at Obama's horse race numbers against each of the leading Republicans you also don't see a ton of change. He has slightly larger leads against Huckabee and Palin than he did at the end of last year, but Romney has pulled closer to him. Here's the data:
| Obama vs. | 09 Numbers | 09 Spread | 10 Numbers | 10 Spread | Shift |
| Huckabee | 46/45 | +1 | 48/45 | +3 | +2 |
| Palin | 50/44 | +6 | 51/42 | +9 | +3 |
| Romney | 47/42 | +5 | 47/46 | +1 | -4 |
At the end of 2009 I would have rated Obama as a slight favorite for reelection if he had to stand for another term then and as 2010 comes to a close I would give that same assessment. What will happen over the next 23 months is of course anyone's guess.
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