-The average approval rating for a Senator right now is 43% approving to 40% disapproving. That suggests the old adage that voters hate Congress but love their Congressman holds true...to an extent...maybe hate Congress but don't mind their Congressman is a better way of putting it. At any rate 37 Senators had positive approval numbers in our most recent polls while 22 had negative ones.
-There's very little difference in the average approval of Republican Senators vs. Democratic Senators. Your average GOP Senator has a 43/37 approval spread. Your average Democrats comes down at 44% approval and 41% disapproval.
-Seven Senators posted a net approval rating of +20 or greater during the second half of 2010. The most popular is Amy Klobuchar at +30, followed by Scott Brown at +24, Judd Gregg at +23, and then Barbara Mikulski, Mark Warner, Chuck Schumer, and Olympia Snowe all at +22.
-There are only three Senators who posted a net approval rating of -20 or worse during the second half of 2010. They are Roland Burris at -39, Arlen Specter at -31, and Joe Lieberman at -21. Specter and Lieberman's numbers definitely speak to the perils of having it both ways...they don't really make Democrats or Republicans particularly happy and you can get away with that if independents love you for your independence but in their cases that has not happened. I will be interested to see if Lieberman's numbers are back in the right direction after the last month and I imagine we'll poll there sometime in January.
-The two most popular Senate delegations are Maine where Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins add up to a +39 approval spread and Maryland where Barbara Mikulski and Ben Cardin combine for a +36 approval spread. The two least popular are Connecticut where Lieberman and Chris Dodd are both pretty unpopular and add up to -37 and Illinois where Dick Durbin actually is on positive ground but Burris is so unpopular that together they add up to -37.
Here are the full numbers, there are probably a lot of other interesting points that I'm missing. And a methodological note, I'm using our most recent poll here except for states that we polled repeatedly in October- for those ones I'm using the poll that proved to come closest to the election outcome in the state:
| Senator | Approval | Spread |
| Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) | 59/29 | +30 |
| Scott Brown (R-MA) | 53/29 | +24 |
| Judd Gregg (R-NH) | 52/29 | +23 |
| Olympia Snowe (R-ME) | 56/34 | +22 |
| Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) | 54/32 | +22 |
| Mark Warner (D-VA) | 54/32 | +22 |
| Chuck Schumer (D-NY) | 57/35 | +22 |
| Susan Collins (R-ME) | 53/36 | +17 |
| Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) | 50/34 | +16 |
| John Cornyn (R-TX) | 46/31 | +15 |
| Herb Kohl (D-WI) | 50/35 | +15 |
| Ben Cardin (D-MD) | 42/28 | +14 |
| Daniel Akaka (D-HI) | 49/35 | +14 |
| Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) | 50/37 | +13 |
| David Vitter (R-LA) | 53/41 | +12 |
| Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) | 45/33 | +12 |
| Tom Udall (D-NM) | 48/36 | +12 |
| Jon Tester (D-MT) | 50/40 | +10 |
| Kit Bond (R-MO) | 45/36 | +9 |
| Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) | 49/40 | +9 |
| Tom Carper (D-DE) | 45/36 | +9 |
| Jon Kyl (R-AZ) | 47/39 | +8 |
| Russ Feingold (D-WI) | 50/43 | +7 |
| Carl Levin (D-MI) | 47/40 | +7 |
| John Kerry (D-MA) | 50/43 | +7 |
| Jim Webb (D-VA) | 43/37 | +6 |
| Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) | 42/37 | +5 |
| Ted Kaufman (D-DE) | 38/33 | +5 |
| Sherrod Brown (D-OH) | 40/37 | +3 |
| Bill Nelson (D-FL) | 36/33 | +3 |
| Al Franken (D-MN) | 45/42 | +3 |
| Maria Cantwell (D-WA) | 44/41 | +3 |
| Mark Udall (D-CO) | 38/35 | +3 |
| Richard Burr (R-NC) | 36/34 | +2 |
| Jeff Merkley (D-OR) | 35/33 | +2 |
| Dick Durbin (D-IL) | 47/45 | +2 |
| Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) | 41/40 | +1 |
| Patty Murray (D-WA) | 47/48 | -1 |
| Claire McCaskill (D-MO) | 43/44 | -1 |
| Mitch McConnell (R-KY) | 42/44 | -2 |
| Barbara Boxer (D-CA) | 44/46 | -2 |
| Bob Casey (D-PA) | 36/40 | -4 |
| George Voinovich (R-OH) | 36/40 | -4 |
| Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) | 41/46 | -5 |
| Carte Goodwin (D-WV) | 17/22 | -5 |
| Kay Hagan (D-NC) | 36/43 | -7 |
| John Ensign (R-NV) | 41/48 | -7 |
| Harry Reid (D-NV) | 44/52 | -8 |
| Michael Bennet (D-CO) | 39/47 | -8 |
| Mark Begich (D-AK) | 39/47 | -8 |
| George LeMieux (R-FL) | 16/27 | -11 |
| Mary Landrieu (D-LA) | 41/53 | -12 |
| Jim Bunning (R-KY) | 32/45 | -13 |
| Max Baucus (D-MT) | 38/53 | -15 |
| Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) | 37/53 | -16 |
| Chris Dodd (D-CT) | 36/52 | -16 |
| Joe Lieberman (I-CT) | 33/54 | -21 |
| Arlen Specter (D-PA) | 29/60 | -31 |
| Roland Burris (D-IL) | 19/58 | -39 |
It would be interesting to include the new senators in the rank too.
ReplyDeleteWhy no Ben Nelson (NE)?
ReplyDelete"It would be interesting to include the new senators in the rank too."
ReplyDeleteWe've started testing the favorabilities of the incoming senators in a few states, but you can't include those in a chart of approval ratings for sitting senators. Soon enough, you'll see the approval ratings of these guys when they're actually in office, and then we can start a new chart for 2011.
"Why no Ben Nelson (NE)?"
We haven't polled NE. There are obviously a lot of senators not in that list. 41 of them, in fact.
I wonder what relationship current approval ratings have to recentness of elections. It makes sense to me that approval rating might decrease the more recent a poll is to a hotly a contested election. Also, whether those answering opinion polls are truly 'likely' voters is questionable, based on the results of recent elections. I would think few people are willing to admit to being apathetic and not voting, especially to a pollster.
ReplyDeleteThat's so weird about Murkowski. How can she be fairly comfortably re-elected, on a write-in campaign no less, yet have -16 net approval rating?
ReplyDeleteThe number of recently reelected senators with net negative ratings is staggering. Harry reid and michael bennet should be grateful that the gop nominated whackjobs against them.
ReplyDeleteA majority of Alaskans voted against Murkowski for Senator. Murkowski only got 39% of the vote (consistent with her approval rating). I'd actually expect her rating to drop further. Of those who voted for her, about a third were Democrats who simply did not want Miller.
ReplyDeleteThis does not bode well for Murkowski in 2016. She will almost certainly lose in the primary to a better candidate than Miller. She might try the independent route again, but it's unlikely to work against a stronger candidate. Miller repeatedly made mistakes that sent voters to Murkowski.