We've got seven choices for where we'll do our two state polls this weekend. We'll do the top two vote getters unless neither of them has a 2012 Senate race- in that case we'll do the top vote getter overall and the top vote getter that has a 2012 Senate race. And as always if someone votes 300 times for the same state we will throw that out of the mix. If a single person's going to dictate where we poll, it's going to be someone at PPP.
The choices are:
-Arizona. Other than Missouri this may be Barack Obama's best chance to flip a state he lost in 2008 and it also provides perhaps the third best Democratic Senate pick up opportunity behind Massachusetts and Nevada. We are not going to test Gabrielle Giffords against Jon Kyl if this wins, even though a fair number of folks suggested we do so. It just doesn't seem appropriate at this point.
-Colorado. This is one of the three remaining Bush 2004/Obama 2008 states we haven't polled yet. The Presidential race there will certainly be interesting but if this wins you're going to have to help us think of what else to ask on the poll.
-Connecticut. I have a feeling Quinnipiac will get the first poll out post-Lieberman retirement for the state but there wouldn't be any harm in getting a couple different sets of eyeballs on the new landscape for the 2012 Senate race there.
-Nebraska. We've put this on every poll vote we've had the entire cycle so far and it never comes close but once again interested in seeing whether we confirm the Republican polls that have basically shown Ben Nelson to be toast and interested in seeing if Obama can win the Omaha based Congressional district again.
-New Hampshire. The only reason I'm really willing to do this one is to see what impact a Rudy Giuliani candidacy would have in the Republican primary- beyond that we don't need another poll showing that Mitt Romney is the mid-30s with everyone else at least 20 points back. Of course we'd look at the general election too.
-New Mexico. Another of the Bush/Obama states we haven't looked at yet and it could have an interesting Senate race if Jeff Bingaman retires. I suppose it could have an interesting one even if Bingaman doesn't retire but he's one of the more popular Senators out there.
-South Carolina. This is the greatest unknown among the early Republican primaries- we know Huckabee's up in Iowa, we know Romney's up in New Hampshire and Nevada but we don't really know about this one. The general election numbers here might be interesting too, seems like a state where Obama could be competitive with a Palin nomination.
Voting is open until Thursday morning.
Re Nebraska:
ReplyDeleteWe dont know what the newly drawn congressional districts will look like yet, so there's not much point polling Omaha. In addition, there's been talk of a move to winner-takes-all in that state.
Do we really need more evidence that Ben Nelson is going to get crushed by any GOP opponent?
ReplyDeleteIf you do Arizona ask, "If Gabrielle Giffords runs for re-election in 2012, should the Republicans run a candidate against her?"
ReplyDeleteSouth Carolina, with their 'favorite son' Jim DeMint in the mix.
ReplyDeleteDo this and it will finish like this:
DeMint
Romney
Gingrich
Palin/Huckabee
hahahaha! Jim DeMint as a favorite son in SC is Huckabee's worse nightmare!
If you poll the 2012 race somewhere else than NH, will you still include Guiliani? Would be interesting how many votes he takes from Romney (because I assume that's where he takes most of his votes) in other states too.
ReplyDeleteJim DeMint is not running.
ReplyDeleteSorry, Romney fans.
Mitt is toast in SC.
Are you kidding me? Arizona will always be GOP. I live here BTW. We don't like Obama.
ReplyDeleteI am just curious as to which GOP candidate is on top here. Hope its Palin or Bachmann.
Why isn't Georgia on the list? :(
ReplyDeleteSince you are refusing to poll a Giffords vs Kyle matchup in AZ, can you at least poll favorable/unfavorable for Gabrielle Giffords. No harm in that
ReplyDeleteCould you poll Napolitano instead of Gabrielle Giffords, then, please?
ReplyDelete"Arizona will always be GOP."
ReplyDeleteClinton won it in '96 in his landslide over Dole, but that was the first time a Democrat had won the state since Truman in '48. People said similar things about North Carolina, Virginia, and Indiana, though, and look what happened. If Obama can be one point down to Palin in TX, I imagine he'd be in stronger shape against her in AZ.
I'm confused on something. I totally understand and respect the decision not to have Gabrielle Giffords' name in the poll, but are you testing other names against Jon Kyl?
ReplyDeleteNames I've seen are attorney Jon Hulburd, state Sen. Matt Heinz, Arizona Corporation Commissioner Sandra Kennedy and former U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick. Sure there are others.
Also there's buzz on Sen. Kyl's retirement, but I've got no names on other Republican in the wings
We'll certainly test names, just not hers. Thanks for the suggestions
ReplyDeleteThe more I think about it, I think you're right on Giffords. Mentioning her name any time in the survey would likely skew all subsequent questions towards the Democrats.
ReplyDeleteArizona Republicans hate Obama, as much as they hate any other Democratic president when he's in office. Arizona's demographics don't favor Republicans in the long term, though, with over 30% of the state population already Hispanic and very strongly motivated to vote against Republicans since the Republicans there decided to pass the Show Us Your Papers Act. McCain won a healthy percentage of Hispanic votes in 2008; he lost them very badly in 2010, despite not being part of the Arizona state government. Had McCain lost the Hispanic vote that badly in 2008, he would have taken Arizona by about three points - and there is a bit of a tendency for states to give a boost to the local guy. Arizona will be competitive very soon and may be already.
ReplyDeleteWhy not Giffords? She was the democratic frontrunner with Napolitano before the shot. It is nothing opportunistic here. Without the shot sure you would include her in the poll.
ReplyDelete