PPP's monthly look ahead to next year's Presidential race finds Barack Obama in his best position against the major Republican contenders since 2009.
The GOP hopefuls who would make it most competitive against Obama continue to be Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, each of whom he leads by 5 points. Against Romney that's Obama's largest advantage since December of 2009 and against Huckabee it's his biggest lead since November of that year. As hyper as people are getting about Obama's improved approval numbers right now it's still worth noting that his performance against each of these folks is worse than what he posted against John McCain in 2008. He's in a stronger position than he was throughout 2010 but he's still in a weaker position than where he started his Presidency and that's something that should probably be kept in perspective.
Against the other pair of GOP front runners you have to go back even further to find a time when Obama led by this much. His 12 point lead over Newt Gingrich and 17 point one over Sarah Palin is the largest he's had against either since May of 2009 before the health care debate and the rise of the Tea Party over the summer began to plunge Obama's numbers. We also tested Obama against Michele Bachmann and he leads her by 18 points at 51-33.
The biggest reason for Obama's improved standing is actually that some Republicans, less than enamored with their current crops of candidates, are giving him a second look. In the last poll 87% of GOP voters said they would definitely vote for Huckabee against Obama- now it's 80%. 79% said they'd vote for Palin- now it's 69%. 81% said they'd vote for Gingrich- now it's 72%. And 87% said they'd vote for Romney- that's now down to 78%. For most of last year Republicans were so disgusted with Obama that they pretty universally said they'd vote for anyone from their party against him but now their feelings have softened a little and the GOP might need someone more formidable than this current bunch to ensure a unified front in 2012.
In addition to inching up with Republicans Obama is also benefiting from a more unified base. His advantage over Romney is up 7 points from November with Democrats, it's gone up 6 points with Palin and Gingrich, and it's seen a 4 point up tick against Huckabee. His party has really rallied around him in the last couple of months.
Obama's not out of the woods by any means but his prospects for reelection are their rosiest in a good long time.
Full results here
From my calculs, If Obama has the same % accross race demographics votes than KERRY did in 2004, it's enough for him to win in 2012.
ReplyDeleteI think the white vote will be 73% in 2012 and it's conservative assuming than it was 74% in 2008 and 77% in 2004 and so declining by 3% between the 2 elections.
But i don't think than we will have the same decline in 2012.
1 % improve will be with Hispanics i think.
73% White ; 13% AA ; 10% Hispanic ; 4% asian and others
With these demographics, Obama needs only matching Kerry with white ( 41%) and he will win.
With 58% white votes ( 1% always goes with third candidates), the GOP will have not enough.
Your breakdown in the poll is nearly perfect.
We've seen the Republicans claim a mandate when Bush was elected in 2000, we've seen them claim a mandate when they retook one house of Congress in 2010.
ReplyDeleteComing in 2012: The Republicans claiming a mandate after losing the Presidency by 5% (because its less than Obama won by in 2008.
Did you also poll Obama's approval rating ?
ReplyDeleteIf not, what do you think is the main reason why your weekly poll for DailyKos has Obama in negative territory, while almost all other current polls have Obama in positive territory ?
48% Females, 52% Males, isnt it usually the other way around? Possible you undersampled Women?
ReplyDeleteObama also reached 51% in Gallup for the first time since May... and Rasmussen says he's at his best place since April.
ReplyDeleteLots of good news out there for Obama right now and I'm hoping it will continue to get better as the GOP makes complete asses out of themselves in the House.
It's way too far off to tell but I'm somewhat hopeful that 2012 will be a huge Democratic wave that they can win the Presidency by a wide margin, get back the majority in the House and hold on in the Senate.
A perfect storm of course is Sarah Palin as the GOP nominee.... I think she could make it happen for us! Go Sarah!
Even James Carville's polling firm shows a much closer race than you do.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/dcor011211fqCAF.pdf
And Carville's sample has even more women, young people, and the same percentage of minorities as your sample.
Is this poll different from the one you do for Kos on a weekly basis? It seems that your results are much worse for Obama in that poll than this national poll.
Carville's firm also polled "Likely Voters". What are Likely Voters at this point ? You can't define them right now. The only really good measure is Registered Voters. And Likely Voter polls always tend to be slightly more Republican than Registered Voter polls. That might explain the difference between Democracy Corps and PPP's results.
ReplyDeleteBTW: Dem. Corps has Romney trailing by 2, PPP by 5, which is within the MoE.
Palin down by "only" 10 at Dem. Corps and almost 20 at PPP is certainly due to the difference mentioned above, but PPP seems to be more consistant with other pollsters, who also show Palin down by about 20 points (see recent Marist poll).
"Is this poll different from the one you do for Kos on a weekly basis?."
ReplyDeleteYes, they're two separate polls. I don't know how you can compare the two when we don't ask the same questions.
Well, if they liked the bones he's thrown 'em so far; wait for the CATFOOD (don't choke on the Obamanible boners)!
ReplyDeleteFolks,
ReplyDeleteIf the unemployment rate is anywhere above 7% Obama will loose the election. You can break down the demographics in anyway you want and he will loose . For sake of you guys, I hope there is a hidden republican candidate who can define himself before the media does its job.
Would it be possible for you to poll approval/disapproval of Wake County residents regarding their school board? As NCers, I'm sure you have interest in this.
ReplyDeleteAbsolute nonsense Ranjit --- Most intelligent rational people know Obama is not to blame for high unemployment.
ReplyDeleteThis is the mess Obama inherited and the Republicans have been in the way of moving forward at every step.
The Republicans are the problem.
And if 7+% unemployment is supposed to spell doom than why is he leading all GOP opponents with 10% unemployment?
Jonny,
ReplyDeleteHow can you say obama has nothing to do with unemployment? you spend trillions of dollars and it is more than 2 years and the unemployment rate is not going below 9%(remember obama saying that, it will not go above 8%). If you think at this unemployment rate, people will be enthusiastic to come out and put that sign and do the crazy things of 2008, you are not living in literalville.
Right now, he has pulpit of presidency and he had a good 4 weeks. Just now the republicans are getting into the action in congress and you will start seeing the decline of president's number.