I guess Donald Trump can claim 'victory' with the release of Barack Obama's birth certificate this morning but his shenanigans over the last month haven't done much to endear him with swing state voters. During April we've polled Trump in the battleground states of Iowa, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Nevada and in all four of those states we've found that at least 59% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of him.
In Nevada Trump's favorability is a -27 spread (32/59), in North Carolina it's a -35 spread (27/62), in Iowa it's a -34 spread (27/61), and in New Hampshire it's a -33 spread (27/60).
There are two primary variables driving Trump's bad numbers:
-Republicans don't really like him that much. In New Hampshire his favorability with them is 46/40, in Iowa it's 41/40, in North Carolina it's 45/42, and in Nevada it's 51/37. He's doing well in primary polls because the GOP voters who do like him are pretty inclined to name him as their top Presidential choice. That's different from say a Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney who are mostly well liked even by Republicans for whom they are not the first choice for the nomination. With Trump there is not as much of that middle ground- you either want him as the nominee or you dislike him. Those kinds of numbers will maybe give you a long shot chance at the nomination but they don't make you a viable contender in November.
-Trump is completely toxic to independent voters. His favorability with them in Nevada is 35/57, in Iowa it's 29/58, in New Hampshire it's 23/63, and in North Carolina it's 28/61. His recent antics have ingratiated him to a meaningful chunk of the far right Republican base, but he's completely turned off the folks in the center whose votes often determine who comes out on top in Presidential contests.
To put Trump's numbers into some context he is less popular than Sarah Palin in all four of these states- her favorability in North Carolina is 33% to his 27%, in Nevada it's 34% to his 32%, in New Hampshire it's 28% to his 27%, and in Iowa it's 29% to his 27%.
If Trump's goal was to get a lot of attention this month he's certainly succeeded. If his goal is really to get elected President it was an utter failure.
Democrats/Obama have to be pleased with this situation where it appears elect-ability among the GOP base and general election elect-ability are inversely related.
ReplyDeleteWill the GOP base swallow their crazy and vote for Mitt Romney or are they Republicans going to end up with an unelectable nut like Donald Trump or Sarah Palin as their nominee?
This is really the question it all comes down to (Huckabee would complicate things a bit, although I think he has a lot of creepy stuff in his past that would doom him once the media spotlight is turned on.)
Here are the interesting scenarios: What if Trump wins the GOP nomination, will the GOPers don't like him now prefer to sit home and have another 4 yrs of Obama or tolerate a Trump in the WH? What if Trump now pivots to his America First Message? He has the money to advertise. Independents are easy to sway one direction or another, depends on the message. How many independents can be swayed by his - the Political people screw up big time, no one is standing up for your interests. China is cheating on us (trade deficits), OPEC is stealing on us (gasoline prices), Mexico is sucking from us (jobs leaving the country); all these people are feeding on us, and what do have in the political class, how have more state dinners for these people, more kowtowing, and that's what you get with another 4 more years of Obama. Do you, the independent voters, want that, or do you want to me (Donald Trump) to say to the political class - You are fired. If Gas prices maintain this high for 10 more weeks, we will have another recession on hand, then we shall see how these independent voters will respond.
ReplyDeleteTrump is the only one who has taken the fight directly to Obama. No other GOP's have come remotely close. Look, Trump just entered the arena and presidential material or not, Trump is gonna keep Barack on his heels on the ropes, as well he should. Once you make your opponent blink the first time, it’s all downhill from there. I was a democrat and voted for Obama. He lied to me as did Bush hence I’m now Independent and thus far Trump is my guy.
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Tina F: Trump has done nothing but lie since he got involved with campaigning. What on earth are you talking about?
ReplyDeleteAnd how has Obama lied? He's accomplished many of his campaign goals and those that he has not accomplished have been because of terrible GOP obstruction.
Donald Trump is nothing but a carnival barker. It's shocking to me that anyone even remotely sane could take him seriously.
Tina is your typical Teabagger. She never lets facts get in the way of her arguments.
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