Barack Obama's not popular in South Carolina but he could have a shot at winning the state next year anyway if Republicans nominate one of their weaker candidates.
Only 43% of voters in the state approve of the job Obama's doing to 53% who disapprove. His numbers show the massive racial divide you might expect- 94% of African Americans approve of the job he's doing but only 24% of whites do. If he had even a 30% approval rating with white voters he'd be in pretty decent standing in the state, but that's a lot easier said than done.
Despite Obama's unpopularity only one of his potential opponents for next year has a clear lead over him in the Palmetto State. That's Mitt Romney, who's ahead of Obama by a 50/41 margin. The only other Republican we tested who leads Obama is Jim DeMint, but the home state senator's margin is a narrow one at 47-44. Beyond that Obama fights Tim Pawlenty to a tie at 42%, leads Newt Gingrich 46-44, is up 43-40 on Herman Cain, and has a 48-43 advantage over Sarah Palin.
Much has been written about the weakness of the Republican candidate field and Obama's competitiveness in South Carolina is very emblematic of that: voters don't like him but in many cases they like the GOP alternatives even less. Romney is the most popular of the contenders likely to run in the state but even he has slightly net negative favorability numbers with 40% of voters expressing a positive opinion of him to 42% with a negative one. Cain's favorability spread is -9 (26/35), Pawlenty's is -17 (22/39), Palin's is -19 (37/56), and Gingrich's is -27 (26/53).
DeMint is actually the most popular politician in the state with his 47/34 approval spread far outpacing those of Obama, fellow Senator Lindsey Graham, and Governor Nikki Haley. We have found in polling in the past though that South Carolinians would rather DeMint remained in the Senate than run for President and that probably explains why the head to head between him and Obama is so close despite his superior popularity.
This is the first state we've polled with a large black population since we began including Herman Cain in all of our general election match ups. Any thought that he might be able to cut into Obama's strength with African American voters can probably be thrown out- his favorability with them is 12/52 and he trails Obama 93-4 in a head to head.
Realistically Obama could probably only win South Carolina if the GOP ended up nominating Palin or Gingrich. But these numbers are another indication that Obama's going to outrun his approval numbers if the Republicans put up a really weak candidate.
Full results here
Although Romney leads Obama by 9 points in SC and Pwlenty only ties him, this is mostly because there are more undecideds in an Obama-Pawlenty race. A lot more of these undecideds are Republicans rather than Democrats, suggesting that Pawlenty would likely win more of them in the end and carry the state IF he and Obama run equally competent campaigns.
ReplyDelete"Barack Obama's not popular in South Carolina but he could have a shot at winning the state next year anyway if Republicans nominate one of their weaker candidates."
ReplyDeleteThis is where the pro-Democrat bias comes in from this pollster. I believe the only reason the hypothetical match-ups are at all close for some here is that the candidates are not really well-known on the GOP side and the voters are simply not engaged yet. No way does Obama come close to winning South Carolina. The pollster knows this and I urge him to be a little more balanced in his reporting of his surveys.
oh please let palin get the nom please
ReplyDeleteObama winning the entire eastern coast (including SC and Georgia) would be awesome.
@Kevin:
ReplyDeleteYeah -- I would love for Obama to win all the Atlantic, Pacific and Great Lakes states.
He came pretty close in 2008, missing out only on GA, SC and AK.
@Anonymous@11:23
ReplyDeleteNewt Gingrich and Sarah Palin are "not really well-known" in South Carolina?
Yeah, Jim, that's exactly what you want: someone right now who, although being the victim of a witch hunt by the left, is only 5 points behind according to this poll.
ReplyDeleteThe idea that ANY republican the candidates field is going to be weak against Obama (i.e., Palin) is a redherring and almost entirely the product ofpolls which are about as reliable 18 months out as reading the entrail of crows.
If youlook at the top-five, Bachman, as a tax attorney, will skewer him on any issues pertaining to taxes; Palin may not know the facts about Paul Revere's ride chapter and verse but she'll spank Obama on the relations of energy to national defense.
Herman Caineand Romney ? When it comes to business smarts, they'd make Obama look as if he couldn't run a lemonade stand.
And Rudy would eviscerate him on constitutional issues.
Believe the polls and the Palin inquisitors if it helps you sleep at night but you just have to open your window and you'll hear a strange sound: it's Obama in a terminal veloicity freefall from the top of the faux Mount Olympus his adoring "roadies" bnuilt for him four years ago.
Olympis
"the only reason the hypothetical match-ups are at all close for some here is that the candidates are not really well-known on the GOP side"
ReplyDeletePalin, Romney, and Gingrich are pretty universally known. It's rare to have this many candidates this well-known at this stage of the race.
"Although Romney leads Obama by 9 points in SC and Pwlenty only ties him, this is mostly because there are more undecideds in an Obama-Pawlenty race."
True. If the undecideds were assigned proportionately with those who have decided, Pawlenty would win, but only 52-48. That's way closer than the state has come to electing a Democratic presidential candidate since Carter actually won the state in '76.
I'd be pretty shocked if Obama won SC... I think two things would have to happen:
ReplyDelete(1) one of the *really* crazy GOP candidates would have to win the Republican nomination.
(2) Significant economic recovery / Obama's national approval #s (Gallup) close to 60%.
I cannot think of a single white Republican who lose to Obama in SC. Hell, SC would probably elect a mangy three legged yellow dog before it went to Obama. Why even have a poll examining the issue? I think we're overanalyzing the South Carolina electorate.
ReplyDeleteFurther proof that Romney is popular in the South despite all popular opinion to the contrary.
ReplyDelete"Further proof that Romney is popular in the South despite all popular opinion to the contrary."
ReplyDeleteHe's actually not personally popular, either with the general electorate or primary voters. But right now, they're voting for him. That support isn't enthusiastic, so he could be vulnerable in the primary, and you could have turnout issues in the general.
More evidence that Huckabee needs to reconsider!
ReplyDelete