There may not be a state that summarizes Barack Obama's decline in popularity with white voters as well as New Hampshire. What we're consistently finding across the country is that Obama's numbers for reelection with African Americans and Hispanics are similar to what they were in 2008 but that he's declined a good deal with white voters. New Hampshire's population is 94% white and Obama won the state by 10 points in 2008 but he now has upside down approval numbers and trails Mitt Romney in a head to head for reelection. His numbers in the Granite State speak to the trouble he may have next year in state where he doesn't have a large core of minority voters to count on to break his fall with whites.
Obama's New Hampshire approval rating is 46%, with 49% disapproving of him. When PPP last looked at the state in April voters were split right down the middle on him at 46% approval and disapproval. His decline since then has come with independents. Where previously he was on narrowly positive ground with them at 46/43, now they split against him 39/53. As is the case most everywhere Democrats (83%) are nearly unanimous in their approval of him while Republicans (85%) are just as unified in their disapproval.
Obama trails Romney 46-44, largely because of a 46-35 deficit with independents. New Hampshire is emblematic of how much more electable Romney is looking than the rest of the GOP field right now- Obama leads all the other Republicans by pretty healthy margins. He has a 7 point lead over both Michele Bachmann (49-42) and Tim Pawlenty (48-41), as well as a 10 point advantage on Herman Cain at 49-39 and a 15 point one over Sarah Palin (53-38).
Obama leads the non-Romney Republicans because even if he's not popular he's at least more well liked by voters in the state than any of them are. Bachmann (-7 at 39/46), Cain (-12 at 25/37), Pawlenty (-13 at 27/40), and Palin (-31 at 31/62) all have pretty poor favorability numbers. Only Romney manages positive ones, albeit by the narrow spread of 43/42.
Obama has to hope the Republicans nominate someone other than Romney...and he also needs to get his troubles with white voters turned around.
Full results here
Yes his white voter decline is very real but I don't think that Obama's minority support is as enthusiastic as it was in 2008 - at least not with Hispanics. Blacks maybe, but since his support was nearly unanimous in 2008, I think it's very hard to judge that. Don't forget that even if 90% or so of blacks vote for him in 2012 compared to the 95% who voted for him in 2008 (and just 4% for McCain) - that could mean a fair bit of difference.
ReplyDeleteThank you for identifying your bias. Ron Paul seems to be conveniently left out and he appeals to conservative republicans, independents and even to some democrats who aren't satisfied with Obama's performance.
ReplyDeleteKeep tying to shape public opinion and policy.
If Barack Obama campaigns in NH as we expect the (seemingly) sanest of the GOP candidates, Tim Pawlenty and Mitt Romney, to do, Obama's honest charm should contrast well with their wishy-washyness.
ReplyDeleteAnd Obama should contrast VERY well with the naked craziness/stupidity of the other GOP candidates.
Ron Paul is as electable as Lyndon LaRouche, with cultish supporters just as convinced that he can somehow break out of the 'also-ran kook' category THIS time.
ReplyDeleteAlso, ouch, two-day break in the polling. Even with a really good reason like July 4th, that still seems like it might potentially have some weird effects.
Romney has some advantages - everybody in NH old enough to vote still knows him as the Massachusetts governor, he's been actively campaigning in the state and keeping his face around, he's got that place on Lake Winnepesaukee, and most importantly he implicitly contrasts himself with the unpopular NH state legislature, where New Hampshire Republicans have been wildly running off the deep end and taking the state with them. Romney lets Granite State Republicans point to someone and say, "See, there's still some non-crazy people left in this party!"
I'm wondering is the President's only hope for the GOP to nominate someone besides Romney? Because Romney still lags the President nationally and several of your other polls find Obama close to or ahead of Romney in key states.
ReplyDeleteHaha, leaving Ron Paul out shows a bias...a bias towards reality.
ReplyDeleteWhen are you going to poll CA-36 ?
ReplyDeleteDemocrats are now worried they could lose the seat next week:
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/07/08/democrats_nervous_about_next_weeks_special_election.html
Interesting gender gaps with Palin and Bachmann. They both are relying on the male vote. Women break for Obama by 20 in a match-up with Bachmann.
ReplyDeleteCain's race doesn't help him at all with non-white voters either. Romney and Pawlenty actually get higher numbers with non-whites than Cain. Wingnut wisdom tells us that blacks always vote for the black candidate. Could wingnut wisdom be wrong?
Obama wins the 65+ vote against all the Republicans polled, except Romney. Bachmann loses the 65+ demographic by 14, with surprisingly few undecided. Does this really sound like the 2010 electorate?