Colorado was the winner of our vote on where to poll this week. We'll also poll North Carolina this weekend.
Particularly interested in Colorado question suggestions since there's no 2012 Gubernatorial or Senate race to poll there. We'll obviously look at the basics- Obama v. Romney, Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and Palin, GOP primary, approvals for Hickenlooper, Udall, and Bennet. But what else beyond that stuff would you like to see us ask about?
There's going to be a lot of focus on the North Carolina poll to get a gauge of what Tar Heel fans think about the recent developments with the football program so question ideas along those lines would be much appreciated, as well as more general political question ideas.
Thanks as always for the great suggestions!
For both states generic congressional and legislative ballots. Also asking the public's view of the Tea Party after the debt ceiling debate should provide some interesting things. My weird question is asking the prostitution legalization question in both states: worth seeing if Nevadans Republicans are atypical on this issue or not.
ReplyDeleteMaybe see how John and Ken Salazar are for any statewide offices or congressional races...
ReplyDeleteGeneric congressional ballot
ReplyDeleteMaybe some numbers for individual congressional races - test the Corey Gardner and Scott Tipton against their declared Dem opponents, plus Betsy Markey and John Salazar. I'd also love to see whether Colorado voters would still elect Michael Bennet in a re-do - and by what margin - or if they would go with Buck.
ReplyDeleteIf possible - Could you ask their views on whether gay marriage or civil unions should be legalized? Also, could you ask whether they'd support a candidate who was in favor of gay marriage of marriage equality? Thanks as always :-)
ReplyDeleteDebt deal for sure. And will a yes or no vote make you more or less likely to vote for ___________.
ReplyDeleteFor NC: Hagan approve/disapprove, generic re-elect. Obviously, it's a long way till 2014, but it would be interesting. Also, Burr-Marshall redo.
ReplyDelete2016 primary with hickenlooper involved.
ReplyDeleteNC:
ReplyDeleteDoes a successful athletics program add value to a university?
(If yes) Over the past year, has the athletics program at UNC-CH increased or decreased the value of the university?
(If no) Over the past year, have the academic programs at UNC-CH increased or decreased in value?
For North Carolina ask if they approve of the congressional redistricting plan. This is a state that will likely see many GOP pick ups after it's implemented.
ReplyDeleteWould love to see questions on legalizing gay marriage (legal/illegal and marriage/civil unions/none) and legalizing pot, since both could be on the ballot in 2012 and the legislature is likely to revisit civil union legislation next session. Thanks as always!
ReplyDeleteCan you test Betsy Markey and the Salazars? Also, views on gay marriage/civil unions would be interesting. And I'd be interested to know what this western state thinks of Rick Perry--he's supposedly so strong in the West, so let's see if it's true!
ReplyDeleteI think it would be really cool to see Gary Hart and Ben Nighthorse Campbell's approval.
ReplyDeleteFor Colarado, a question about immigration would be good. Something along the lines of whether they support an Arizona like approach or a more comprehensive solution. The immigration debate has died down but I think it's an absolutely a vote winner for Democrats out West.
ReplyDeleteFor NC, maybe a question about taxes, whether they support higher taxes for top income earners to help reduce the deficit and pay for government services and whether they would be support entitlement reform if it contained some cuts to the programs.
Thank you for taking suggestions!
ReplyDeleteColorado:
* Jane Norton is being talked up as a potential challenger to Sen. Mark Udall by U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte. Normally, I don't suggest for races this far out, but since Colorado has no 2012 Governor or Senate race, I would like to suggest this possible match-up.
* Hickenlooper vs. Tancredo vs. Maes. - Just throwing this out here as a "filler".
* And, I would like to suggest favorable numbers for Tom Tancredo and Scott McInnis. Both are semi-young, and could be viable statewide in the future. Espcially in McInnis's case, after the scandal that broke in his 2010 Governor's run.
___________________________________
North Carolina:
Governor:
Democrats:
* Governor Bev Perdue
Republicans:
* Former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory
Other:
* I'm not sure where, but I swear that I read Kay Hagan is being talked about as a potential Obama 2012 running mate pick. You guys might know more living in NC, but I swear I read it somewhere.
Thanks again!
We're not doing individual congressional districts.
ReplyDeleteIn Colorado:
ReplyDeleteSupport for Gay Marriage and please ask what Colorado voters think about the river project by artist Christo:
http://articles.boston.com/2011-07-28/news/29825907_1_jeanne-claude-christo-bighorn-sheep
The marijuana legalization ballot measure will make it on the ballot. It is well funded and well organized. Please ask marijuana legalization to get a base line for the state.
ReplyDeleteMaybe ask about the Lanborn "tar baby" comment.
ReplyDeleteAlso a generic Congressional ballot.
For Colorado:
ReplyDelete-There is also an potential ballot initiative to raise the income tax to 5% (currently at 4.63%) and the sales tax to 3% (currently at 2.9%) in Colorado. A question to find out if there is enough support to pass this initiative would be most appreciated.
For both states:
-Both states are dealing with recognition of gay unions in some form or another, so I also repeat the requests for a question on same-sex marriage/civil unions/no rec. and a question on same-sex marriage legal/illegal.
-Generic congressional ballot
-Generic legislative ballot
You should ask about the debt deal and how people feel about the major players in it (Obama, Boehner, Tea Party, etc.).
ReplyDeleteDid Dems compromise too much, about right, or not enough?
Did Republicans compromise too much, about right, or not enough?
Do you think the debt deal is balanced or not? If no, which way is it unbalanced.
Should additional revenues have been included in the deal?
In NC, a question about the pending marriage amendment that will likely be on the ballot next year or a question about same-sex marriage in general would be great to see. There hasn't been much polling in NC on this issue, and I don't really trust the Elon or Civitas polls.
ReplyDeleteFor North Carolina, a very interesting one would be thoughts on HB 577, which is legislation regarding medical marijuana. No longer a fringe issue. Let's see if NC is still stuck in the 50's or ready to take a common sense step forward.
ReplyDeleteFor Colorado, the do-over on the gubernatorial and senate races, since you've done that for a number of other states (mostly ones with unpopular governors, unlike Hickenlooper).
ReplyDeleteIn NC, it would be interesting to see some specific issue questions that relate to the legislature and the Sept. special session plus 2012 short session:
ReplyDelete- Support/Opposition of offshore oil drilling, natural gas fracking, new nuclear, and clean energy sources (ex. solar, wind, energy efficiency)
- Support/Opposition of gay marriage constitutional amendment; expanded rights for domestic partners, etc.
Well, certainly, please ask the head to head questions for Perry vs Obama in these states as it will be interesting to see how he's doing in the South.
ReplyDeleteAlso, please check out the gay marriage 'legal' or 'illegal' question. Will be interesting in both of these states.
Also the congressional and state legislative generic please!
Colorado:
ReplyDeleteFavorability for state House Republicans vs. Senate Democrats (control their respective chambers).
Ask about adequacy of state funding for education. There are several things happening in the state related to revenue/funding for education including several lawsuits (here's one: http://www.denverpost.com/legislature/ci_18598165)and a ballot initiative (I 25) that was just submitted to raise taxes for education (http://durangoherald.com/article/20110802/NEWS01/708029942/-1/s).
In Colorado, I too truly think that the prostitution question would be a good one. If a majority of Nevada Republicans believe in it, then asking the same question of another, nearby Western state would be a good gauge of whether Nevada is unique or whether, if CO voters approve of prostitution, this is not the taboo we all thought it was.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of electoral surprises, marijuana legalization for those over 21 will probably be on the ballot in CO next year, so it's worth polling, IMHO. And what mention of electoral surprises is complete without suggesting checking in on Tom Tancredo?
As always, thanks for listening.
Definitely consider taking a look at the popularity of marijuana legalization. There's a shot it'll land on the 2012 ballot.
ReplyDeletePoll a 2013 Hagan v. Dole rematch.
ReplyDeleteColorado:
ReplyDeleteI'd be curious to see what voters think about the 2011 education tax hike. It'll lose, but I'm curious by how much.
And I sure hope you're voter screen has been adjusted. You guys have Dems +8 in February, in a state that has a GOP registration ADVANTAGE. Even if you think Obama's GOTV will be robust, you can't possibly have anything more than 33/33/33. Your February poll was laughed at by most Colorado politicos, but I really do want to see a good poll from the state. So do it right so it can actually be of use.
Heath Shuler and Brad Miller for Governor
ReplyDeleteNC - Gay marriage, as there is a good chance there will be a vote on that. Ideally, you should do the 2-option question and the 3-option question. Although I am probably pressing my luck here, since any ballot question would likely be worded similar to Prop 8 in CA, you should separately ask whether the respondent would vote for or against and then read the text.
ReplyDelete- Also in NC, it would be interesting to do an interracial marriage question along the lines of what you did in MS.
- I would also ask what % of voters describe themselves as evangelical or born-again Christians. There has been a lot of migration into NC, and it would be interesting to see if that has had a dilutive effect on evangelical influence on the electorate, the state that gave us Jesse Helms.
CO - CO has a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, so it is less important to ask about that. However, civil unions very nearly passed this year, and was only thwarted b/c the GOP used their 1-vote majority in the state House to bottle it up in committee. So I would definitely ask about civil unions. This also would be interesting b/c CO is one of only 2 states to vote specifically on civil unions, defeating it by 53-47 in 2006. (WA voters approved civil unions by the same margin in 2009.)
- Given the massive influx of conservative Christians into Colorado Springs in the 1990s, and a resulting backlash, you should ask what percent of respondents describe themselves as evangelical or born again. And I would in some form query whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Religious Right.
Aononymous @1:28 wrote:
ReplyDelete"And I sure hope you're voter screen has been adjusted."
Even I, as a mere consumer of PPP polling know that the 'voter screen' consists of asking if the respondent is a registered voter or not.
There is no partisan weighting, as Dustin has mentioned several times previously. Partisan weighting is a bad idea used by pollsters to compensate for lousy sampling. So is weighting to a PVI representing actual votes in two previous elections and then applying a mysterious 'likely voter' screen *on top of that*.
At this point in the election cycle, RV is the way to go. Let's see what registered voters have to say, and worry about if they will vote when we get within 90 days of the actual election.
"Your February poll was laughed at by most Colorado politicos, but I really do want to see a good poll from the state."
Yeah, you should ask Rasmussen to do a free poll for you. See how that turns out. It sounds like that's what you're looking for.
PPP is providing a great public service here by performing free polling and establishing a baseline from which trends can be derived later in the cycle. Allowing suggestions and input is unprecedented.
Anonymous snipes like you are like pan-handlers who reject pocket change and demand crisp bills that have not been folded. "Everyone laughed at that dollar bill you gave me two days ago. I suggest giving me a nice five-dollar bill this time. Do it right, so it can be useful".
Ask favorability ratings for the 4 Democratic congressmen imperiled by the redistricting plan to see if they could make statewide office (especially McIntyre and Shuler)
ReplyDelete