Barack Obama won 54% of the vote in Colorado last fall but our first look at his approval rating in the state finds only 49% of voters giving him good marks for his performance so far, with 45% dissenting.
Colorado still had a small Republican identification advantage even as Obama took the state by a solid margin in November, which meant that overwhelming support from independents was key to his success. Our final three pre-election polls showed him leading John McCain by an average of 24 points with that group. They don't seem to be as enthusiastic about Obama since his election though, as they split almost evenly in their assessment of the President. 48% say he's doing a good job but 47% disapprove. That comparative lack of support for Obama's work so far relative to how he did at the polls with independents goes a long way toward explaining his surprisingly low approval ratings.
His numbers are as polarized along party lines as you would expect them to be with 86% of Democrats but only 15% of Republicans approving of his work.
Obama has good numbers with women, African Americans, and Hispanics while he gets net negative reviews from men and whites.
A first look at Mark Udall's approval numbers also shows less than stellar results, with 41% of voters approving and 46% disapproving of the freshman Senator's work so far.
Full results here.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Monday, April 20, 2009
Previewing Colorado
We'll start rolling out our Colorado poll tomorrow with a look at Barack Obama and Mark Udall's approval ratings, followed by Michael Bennet's standing Wednesday, and Bill Ritter's standing Thursday.
One thing folks might not know about Colorado, especially given how Democratic it has voted in the last couple elections, is that it is actually not a state with a large Democratic identification advantage. Its exit poll showed a GOP +1 party breakdown, as did our January survey of the state. The one we'll be releasing this week come out at GOP +2.
The reason Obama and Udall were able to win by such significant margins last fall was very strong performances with independent voters. Each of our last three polls showed both of them winning that group by more than 20 points, Obama by an average of 24 and Udall by an average of 27.
For Obama and Udall to keep up that strong standing...and for Democrats like Bennet and Ritter to keep winning, they have to keep up that solid performance with independent voters. Stay tuned this week to see how they're doing on that front at this point in time.
One thing folks might not know about Colorado, especially given how Democratic it has voted in the last couple elections, is that it is actually not a state with a large Democratic identification advantage. Its exit poll showed a GOP +1 party breakdown, as did our January survey of the state. The one we'll be releasing this week come out at GOP +2.
The reason Obama and Udall were able to win by such significant margins last fall was very strong performances with independent voters. Each of our last three polls showed both of them winning that group by more than 20 points, Obama by an average of 24 and Udall by an average of 27.
For Obama and Udall to keep up that strong standing...and for Democrats like Bennet and Ritter to keep winning, they have to keep up that solid performance with independent voters. Stay tuned this week to see how they're doing on that front at this point in time.
A couple notes on Cooper
Beyond the obvious good news for Roy Cooper that he was leading Richard Burr when we polled the two against each other last week there was some other good stuff for Cooper in the poll:
-The first is that he trailed Burr only 45-36 among white voters. Allocate the undecideds proportionately and you would have Burr winning that demographic just 56-44. For sake of comparison Barack Obama took the state with only 35% of the white vote, and Kay Hagan was able to win by nine points despite exit polls showing she got just 39% of that vote against Elizabeth Dole. Why is that so important? Black turnout is pretty inevitably going to be down next year without Obama at the top of the ticket, and that means for Democrats to win this race they're probably going to have to do better with white voters than they often do...at least 40% most likely. Cooper starts out in a strong position to get that level of support.
-There's also good news for Cooper on the potentially contested primary front. Some might think that the characteristics that make Cooper such a strong general election candidate- his moderate, tough, no nonsense image- might make him susceptible to a challenger from the left within a Democratic primary. But only 6% of voters who describe themselves as liberals say they have a negative opinion of him compared to 57% who view him favorably. That more than likely means a pretty safe route to the nomination. It's there for the taking, he just needs to make his decision.
-The first is that he trailed Burr only 45-36 among white voters. Allocate the undecideds proportionately and you would have Burr winning that demographic just 56-44. For sake of comparison Barack Obama took the state with only 35% of the white vote, and Kay Hagan was able to win by nine points despite exit polls showing she got just 39% of that vote against Elizabeth Dole. Why is that so important? Black turnout is pretty inevitably going to be down next year without Obama at the top of the ticket, and that means for Democrats to win this race they're probably going to have to do better with white voters than they often do...at least 40% most likely. Cooper starts out in a strong position to get that level of support.
-There's also good news for Cooper on the potentially contested primary front. Some might think that the characteristics that make Cooper such a strong general election candidate- his moderate, tough, no nonsense image- might make him susceptible to a challenger from the left within a Democratic primary. But only 6% of voters who describe themselves as liberals say they have a negative opinion of him compared to 57% who view him favorably. That more than likely means a pretty safe route to the nomination. It's there for the taking, he just needs to make his decision.
Where should we poll this week?
This week's choices are Georgia, Illinois, and Oklahoma.
I'm interested in Georgia because when we took Johnny Isakson's approval rating in November it was one of the worst of anyone in the country we've done over the last year. That may have been an anomaly but I'm interested in looking again to see if it really is that bad because if it is Democrats should be paying a lot more attention to this seat.
Illinois I'll just repeat what I said when we gave this option last week: Illinois, namely how Roland Burris and Alexi Giannoulias fare both against each other and Mark Kirk. I guess we could include Jan Schakowsky and William Daley as well although their candidacies seem like less of a sure thing. We'd also look at how Pat Quinn and Lisa Madigan do against each other and GOP hopeful Bill Brady.
Oklahoma it seems increasingly possible that Tom Coburn is not going to run for reelection so we could look at both how he does against some of the big name Democrats in the state and how this might shape up as an open seat contest.
The voting will be open until Wednesday at 10 AM.
I'm interested in Georgia because when we took Johnny Isakson's approval rating in November it was one of the worst of anyone in the country we've done over the last year. That may have been an anomaly but I'm interested in looking again to see if it really is that bad because if it is Democrats should be paying a lot more attention to this seat.
Illinois I'll just repeat what I said when we gave this option last week: Illinois, namely how Roland Burris and Alexi Giannoulias fare both against each other and Mark Kirk. I guess we could include Jan Schakowsky and William Daley as well although their candidacies seem like less of a sure thing. We'd also look at how Pat Quinn and Lisa Madigan do against each other and GOP hopeful Bill Brady.
Oklahoma it seems increasingly possible that Tom Coburn is not going to run for reelection so we could look at both how he does against some of the big name Democrats in the state and how this might shape up as an open seat contest.
The voting will be open until Wednesday at 10 AM.
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Saturday Night Odds and Ends
As a scientific pollster it is perhaps a little unorthodox for me to encourage people to go stack an unscientific poll, but go here and vote UNC pitcher Adam Warren for the Lowe's Senior Class Award. I go to almost every Carolina baseball game and Adam has been both a tremendous pitcher and an outstanding student and representative of the program over the last four years. Tyler Hansbrough won this award for basketball and we have someone who deserves to win it for baseball too. You can vote once a day.
Speaking of the stacking of unscientific polls, Colorado was the surprise winner for the 'where should we poll this weekend?' question this week. Illinois and Connecticut both seemed like they had more compelling stuff for us to look at but someone sent around an e-mail telling folks to vote for Colorado so that put it over the top. We'll have approval ratings for Barack Obama and Mark Udall, as well as the same for Michael Bennet and Bill Ritter and looks at how they do against some hypothetical opponents.
I think we'll have a new 'where should we poll' on Monday, perhaps with an Oklahoma option as Tom Coburn wavers over his political future.
We'll also have our monthly national poll this week, looking at Barack Obama's approval rating and some other stuff you'll just have to stay tuned to see.
Have a great rest of the weekend!
Speaking of the stacking of unscientific polls, Colorado was the surprise winner for the 'where should we poll this weekend?' question this week. Illinois and Connecticut both seemed like they had more compelling stuff for us to look at but someone sent around an e-mail telling folks to vote for Colorado so that put it over the top. We'll have approval ratings for Barack Obama and Mark Udall, as well as the same for Michael Bennet and Bill Ritter and looks at how they do against some hypothetical opponents.
I think we'll have a new 'where should we poll' on Monday, perhaps with an Oklahoma option as Tom Coburn wavers over his political future.
We'll also have our monthly national poll this week, looking at Barack Obama's approval rating and some other stuff you'll just have to stay tuned to see.
Have a great rest of the weekend!
Friday, April 17, 2009
Issues in Minnesota Sports
NBA fans in Minnesota are ready for a change. 54% of self described sports fans in our most recent poll said they would not like to see Kevin McHale return next season as coach of the Timberwolves.
The team hasn't been to the playoffs in five years and it appears fans think that McHale, who put together the team's roster while working in the front office before assuming coaching duties this season, is a big part of the problem.
Jacques Lemaire is already out as the coach for the Wild, but a majority in the state wish that he would have stayed. Despite the team missing the playoffs this year 52% think the only leader the franchise has ever known should have stayed for another year.
With the Twins off to a slow start their fans don't think the team will emerge victorious in the AL Central this year. Only 46% think they will make the playoffs with 54% saying another club in the division will move on.
The most interesting thing digging into the crosstabs of this poll is how significant the gender gap is on some of these issues. Women tend to have a much more positive view of the current state of these franchises than men. For instance 57% of females think McHale should stay on as coach, but only 37% of men do. Similarly, 53% of women think that the Twins will take the division but only 40% of men feel that way.
Full results here
The team hasn't been to the playoffs in five years and it appears fans think that McHale, who put together the team's roster while working in the front office before assuming coaching duties this season, is a big part of the problem.
Jacques Lemaire is already out as the coach for the Wild, but a majority in the state wish that he would have stayed. Despite the team missing the playoffs this year 52% think the only leader the franchise has ever known should have stayed for another year.
With the Twins off to a slow start their fans don't think the team will emerge victorious in the AL Central this year. Only 46% think they will make the playoffs with 54% saying another club in the division will move on.
The most interesting thing digging into the crosstabs of this poll is how significant the gender gap is on some of these issues. Women tend to have a much more positive view of the current state of these franchises than men. For instance 57% of females think McHale should stay on as coach, but only 37% of men do. Similarly, 53% of women think that the Twins will take the division but only 40% of men feel that way.
Full results here
Race and Ideology in North Carolina
Here's one to challenge your conventional wisdom: more African Americans in North Carolina describe themselves as conservatives than liberals.
On each of our last three North Carolina polls about 50% of black voters in the state have identified as moderates with the rest relatively split between calling themselves liberals and conservatives but with the advantage to conservative each time.
Averaging the numbers 22% of African Americans in North Carolina are liberals, 50% are moderates, and 28% are conservatives.
That has meaningful implications for North Carolina politics at several levels, but perhaps most relevantly to how candidates try to reach out to the black community in Democratic primaries. Painting yourself as the furthest left candidate is not necessarily the winning strategy.
Looking at our issue polling, African Americans do tend to take the 'liberal' stance on most things. But they tend much more toward the conservative side on things like gay marriage and that appears to have a significant impact on how they portray themselves overall.
There's been a lot of talk and study over the years about conservative white Democrats in North Carolina but looking just within the numbers for voters who identify themselves as Democrats in the state whites are more likely to describe themselves as liberals and less likely to describe themselves as conservatives than African Americans. Among white Democrats 34% say they're liberal, 47% moderate, and 19% conservative. Among black Democrats 24% are liberal, 50% moderate, and 26% conservative.
Probably not what you would expect.
On each of our last three North Carolina polls about 50% of black voters in the state have identified as moderates with the rest relatively split between calling themselves liberals and conservatives but with the advantage to conservative each time.
Averaging the numbers 22% of African Americans in North Carolina are liberals, 50% are moderates, and 28% are conservatives.
That has meaningful implications for North Carolina politics at several levels, but perhaps most relevantly to how candidates try to reach out to the black community in Democratic primaries. Painting yourself as the furthest left candidate is not necessarily the winning strategy.
Looking at our issue polling, African Americans do tend to take the 'liberal' stance on most things. But they tend much more toward the conservative side on things like gay marriage and that appears to have a significant impact on how they portray themselves overall.
There's been a lot of talk and study over the years about conservative white Democrats in North Carolina but looking just within the numbers for voters who identify themselves as Democrats in the state whites are more likely to describe themselves as liberals and less likely to describe themselves as conservatives than African Americans. Among white Democrats 34% say they're liberal, 47% moderate, and 19% conservative. Among black Democrats 24% are liberal, 50% moderate, and 26% conservative.
Probably not what you would expect.
Big State, Low Recognition?
One of the things I'm interested in when looking at our approval ratings for Senators is the level of ambiguity voters in each state have toward their representatives in Washington. It ranges from 46% not having any opinion about Michael Bennet in Colorado when we first polled on him in January shortly after his appointment to only 9% having no opinion about Mitch McConnell in Kentucky probably because he's been in office forever and is on tv all the time:
There is a pretty strong relationship here between the size of the state and the level of ambiguity toward their Senators. Seven of the nine Senators with the greatest percentage of voters having no opinion about them come from states with at least 13 electoral votes. The only exceptions are appointed Senators- Bennet and Kaufman- who have never had to stand before the voters. Out of the nine Senators whose constituents have the highest level of familiarity with them, only one comes from a state that has more than 11 electoral voters. That's Kay Bailey Hutchison in Texas, and that fact certainly helps to explain why the Governor's office is probably going to be hers for the taking barring some major shift in perceptions about her in the next year.
So it does seem that it's a lot easier for Senators from smaller states to keep up higher levels of visbility and name recognition. And looking at the folks near the top of the list who are up for reelection in 2010 you can see the price of that- Voinovich and Martinez are retiring at least in part because there was a very good chance they were going to lose and Burr is extremely vulnerable as well.
Richard Burr and Elizabeth Dole certainly have themselves to blame more than anything else for the difficulty they've had maintaining the level of visibility necessary to earn a smooth reelection, but these numbers do indicate that as the state's population continues to grow it makes it harder for officials to stay connected with their constituents. Certainly a lesson to Kay Hagan to start worrying about that now rather than 2013.
| Senator | % of voters with no opinion | State’s Electoral Votes |
| Michael Bennet ( | 46 | 9 |
| Johnny Isakson ( | 45 | 15 |
| Ted Kaufman ( | 41 | 3 |
| Mel Martinez ( | 40 | 27 |
| Richard Burr ( | 34 | 15 |
| Kay Hagan ( | 34 | 15 |
| George Voinovich ( | 32 | 20 |
| Bill Nelson ( | 29 | 27 |
| Jim Webb ( | 23 | 13 |
| Jim Bunning ( | 18 | 8 |
| Tom Carper ( | 17 | 3 |
| Kit Bond ( | 16 | 11 |
| Mark Pryor ( | 16 | 6 |
| John McCain ( | 16 | 10 |
| Blanche Lincoln ( | 15 | 6 |
| Amy Klobuchar ( | 13 | 10 |
| Kay Bailey Hutchison ( | 11 | 34 |
| Mitch McConnell ( | 9 | 8 |
There is a pretty strong relationship here between the size of the state and the level of ambiguity toward their Senators. Seven of the nine Senators with the greatest percentage of voters having no opinion about them come from states with at least 13 electoral votes. The only exceptions are appointed Senators- Bennet and Kaufman- who have never had to stand before the voters. Out of the nine Senators whose constituents have the highest level of familiarity with them, only one comes from a state that has more than 11 electoral voters. That's Kay Bailey Hutchison in Texas, and that fact certainly helps to explain why the Governor's office is probably going to be hers for the taking barring some major shift in perceptions about her in the next year.
So it does seem that it's a lot easier for Senators from smaller states to keep up higher levels of visbility and name recognition. And looking at the folks near the top of the list who are up for reelection in 2010 you can see the price of that- Voinovich and Martinez are retiring at least in part because there was a very good chance they were going to lose and Burr is extremely vulnerable as well.
Richard Burr and Elizabeth Dole certainly have themselves to blame more than anything else for the difficulty they've had maintaining the level of visibility necessary to earn a smooth reelection, but these numbers do indicate that as the state's population continues to grow it makes it harder for officials to stay connected with their constituents. Certainly a lesson to Kay Hagan to start worrying about that now rather than 2013.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Minnesota Politician Approvals
Amy Klobuchar has the highest approval rating of any US Senator PPP has tested in the last year. 62% of Minnesota voters like the job she's doing with just 25% dissenting.
Not surprisingly 87% of her own party's voters are behind her. But she also gets a 30% approval rating from Republicans, a higher level of crossover support than we find for most Senators. And she's very popular with independents as well, earning a 59/26 spread from them.
Another key to her popularity is that we don't see some of the gaps along demographic lines with her approval numbers that Democrats tend to have. For instance she has a 62% rating with both men and women, not exhibiting the usual gender gap that finds the party's politicians faring more poorly with men. Older voters are another demographic that tend to lean more toward the conservative side, but Klobuchar has a 71% approval with senior citizens, actually her best numbers among any age group.
For the last three months Klobuchar has been doing double duty while the state's other Senate seat is resolved, and voters seem to appreciate her for it.
Tim Pawlenty's numbers, although not terrible, tell a different story. 47% of voters approve of his work with 40% disapproving. He gets strong support from Republicans but only 19% of Democrats give him good marks, a much smaller level of bipartisan support than what Klobuchar is enjoying. He is over 50% with independents, leading his overall numbers into positive territory.
Full results here.
Not surprisingly 87% of her own party's voters are behind her. But she also gets a 30% approval rating from Republicans, a higher level of crossover support than we find for most Senators. And she's very popular with independents as well, earning a 59/26 spread from them.
Another key to her popularity is that we don't see some of the gaps along demographic lines with her approval numbers that Democrats tend to have. For instance she has a 62% rating with both men and women, not exhibiting the usual gender gap that finds the party's politicians faring more poorly with men. Older voters are another demographic that tend to lean more toward the conservative side, but Klobuchar has a 71% approval with senior citizens, actually her best numbers among any age group.
For the last three months Klobuchar has been doing double duty while the state's other Senate seat is resolved, and voters seem to appreciate her for it.
Tim Pawlenty's numbers, although not terrible, tell a different story. 47% of voters approve of his work with 40% disapproving. He gets strong support from Republicans but only 19% of Democrats give him good marks, a much smaller level of bipartisan support than what Klobuchar is enjoying. He is over 50% with independents, leading his overall numbers into positive territory.
Full results here.
Our Senate Approval Ratings
We have done approval ratings on 18 Senators since last summer. Here's how their most recent numbers stack up:
| Senator | Approval |
| Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) | 62/25 |
| Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) | 58/31 |
| Tom Carper (D-DE) | 57/26 |
| Kit Bond (R-MO) | 57/27 |
| Mark Pryor (D-AR) | 54/30 |
| John McCain (R-AZ) | 53/31 |
| Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) | 45/40 |
| Jim Webb (D-VA) | 44/33 |
| Mitch McConnell (R-KY) | 44/47 |
| Bill Nelson (D-FL) | 42/29 |
| Ted Kaufman (D-DE) | 35/24 |
| Richard Burr (R-NC) | 35/31 |
| Kay Hagan (D-NC) | 33/33 |
| Michael Bennet (D-CO) | 33/21 |
| Johnny Isakson (R-GA) | 30/25 |
| George Voinovich (R-OH) | 30/38 |
| Jim Bunning (R-KY) | 28/54 |
| Mel Martinez (R-FL) | 23/37 |
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