So much to digest on this poll, which is why we usually release them over multiple days:
-Mark Sanford's approval rating is 31% in the district with 59% of voters disapproving of him. SC-2 voted pretty similarly to statewide trends last year so I'm guessing that's about where his numbers are statewide. A slight 51% majority thinks he should resign. 70% of Democrats and 47% of independents but only 37% of Republicans think he needs to go. Wonder what those same folks thought about Bill Clinton?
-Less than half of Republicans think Obama's speech to the schoolchildren on Tuesday was appropriate. 46% say it was, 40% say it wasn't. 93% of Democrats and 69% of independents think it was fine, making the overall numbers 68% thinking it was appropriate and 22% thinking it was not. The 22% thinking it was not perhaps not so coincidentally aligns with the 22% of respondents who thought Barack Obama was not born in the United States.
-Voters give pretty contradictory answers to health care questions. They narrowly support a public option, 44-39. When you instead describe it as 'a health insurance plan that would allow people who can't afford health insurance elsewhere to purchase it' created by the federal government, and don't use the public option terminology support is 55-35. But when you ask about Barack Obama's health care plan folks oppose it 48-45. I think the public supports what Obama wants to do, he's just losing the messaging battle so far. We'll see if that changes in the coming weeks.
-81% of Democrats and 74% of independents but only 57% of Republicans say they watched Obama's speech Wednesday night, more evidence that he was inevitably going to do well in the instant polls. Not much you can do about that. Also there's no way 70% of SC-2 really watched Obama's speech but if there's one thing lie to pollsters about, even automated ones, it's their level of engagement. We find results like this all the time about whether people watched debates or speeches, plan to vote, are knowledgeable about an issue, etc.
Friday, September 11, 2009
A game changer?
Barack Obama's approval rating in South Carolina's 2nd Congressional District is 50%, with 46% of voters there disapproving of him. Obama received 45% of the vote there last fall. This is the first time since June that PPP has polled anywhere and found the President's approval five points higher than his share of the vote last November. If these numbers are in any way indicative of the country as a whole Wednesday night's speech may have been a game changer.
Particularly noteworthy are Obama's numbers among independents. They've tanked lately nationally and that's been particularly true in the south, but in this Republican leaning district 52% of them like the job he's doing to 43% disapproving.
Full results here
Particularly noteworthy are Obama's numbers among independents. They've tanked lately nationally and that's been particularly true in the south, but in this Republican leaning district 52% of them like the job he's doing to 43% disapproving.
Full results here
Wilson in Trouble
In a matter of seconds Wednesday night Joe Wilson went from being pretty safe for reelection to one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents in the country.
Wilson trails Democratic challenger Rob Miller 44-43 in a PPP survey conducted Thursday night and Friday morning. Last year Wilson defeated Miller 54-46.
62% of voters in SC-2 disapprove of Wilson's actions while just 29% think they were ok. By a 48-41 margin Republicans think what he did was fine, but independents are opposed to it by a 66/25 margin and Democrats are 84/10.
While there is a pretty strong consensus among respondents that the way Wilson expressed his opinion is inappropriate, they are almost evenly divided about whether the substance of his comment was correct. 42% think that Obama was lying when he said illegal immigrants wouldn't be covered by his health care plans, while 46% think he was telling the truth.
Overall 49% of voters say they are less likely to vote for Wilson in the future because he called Obama a liar, while 35% say they are more likely to do so. 56% of Republicans say that Wilson's calling out the President makes them more likely to support him.
It will be interesting to see if there is a push now for Wilson to not seek reelection. In a Republican climate there's no reason this seat should be competitive next year, but as long as Wilson is the GOP candidate it will be. If he stepped aside it would probably go back to being safe Republican.
Full results here
Wilson trails Democratic challenger Rob Miller 44-43 in a PPP survey conducted Thursday night and Friday morning. Last year Wilson defeated Miller 54-46.
62% of voters in SC-2 disapprove of Wilson's actions while just 29% think they were ok. By a 48-41 margin Republicans think what he did was fine, but independents are opposed to it by a 66/25 margin and Democrats are 84/10.
While there is a pretty strong consensus among respondents that the way Wilson expressed his opinion is inappropriate, they are almost evenly divided about whether the substance of his comment was correct. 42% think that Obama was lying when he said illegal immigrants wouldn't be covered by his health care plans, while 46% think he was telling the truth.
Overall 49% of voters say they are less likely to vote for Wilson in the future because he called Obama a liar, while 35% say they are more likely to do so. 56% of Republicans say that Wilson's calling out the President makes them more likely to support him.
It will be interesting to see if there is a push now for Wilson to not seek reelection. In a Republican climate there's no reason this seat should be competitive next year, but as long as Wilson is the GOP candidate it will be. If he stepped aside it would probably go back to being safe Republican.
Full results here
Take exit polls with a grain of salt
Black turnout dropped from 30% in 2004 in South Carolina to just 25% in 2008. It's amazing that happened with Barack Obama on the ticket!
Well actually it didn't. But it's a good reminder of why exit polls should not be treated as the gospel truth.
South Carolina happens to be a state that makes the actual turnout data very easy to access. In reality the nonwhite vote increased from 27% in 2004 to 31% in 2008. While the exit polls erroneously tell the story of a five point drop in the black share of the electorate the reality is that it increased by four points, as you would have expected with Obama at the top of the ticket.
Exit polls aren't completely worthless, but pollsters definitely shouldn't weight their samples to them and their numbers should be looked at with the same skepticism that poll observers would show toward any other survey.
Well actually it didn't. But it's a good reminder of why exit polls should not be treated as the gospel truth.
South Carolina happens to be a state that makes the actual turnout data very easy to access. In reality the nonwhite vote increased from 27% in 2004 to 31% in 2008. While the exit polls erroneously tell the story of a five point drop in the black share of the electorate the reality is that it increased by four points, as you would have expected with Obama at the top of the ticket.
Exit polls aren't completely worthless, but pollsters definitely shouldn't weight their samples to them and their numbers should be looked at with the same skepticism that poll observers would show toward any other survey.
Different Month, Same Story
For the umpteenth month in a row Richard Burr's approval rating is mediocre but he nevertheless leads all his potential Democratic challengers by healthy margins.
38% of North Carolina voters like the job Burr is doing while 32% disapprove. That's unchanged from PPP's August poll. He gets good marks from 66% of Republicans, 34% of independents, and 20% of Democrats.
Burr's number with Republicans is actually the second best it's been all year. It was at its highest in February when he was visible in his opposition to the stimulus and now it's up again as he's been in the spotlight for his opposition to Barack Obama on health care reform. Clearly that stuff ingratiates him to the GOP base.
Bob Etheridge polls the strongest of the Democratic candidates against Burr, trailing 41-34. Dennis Wicker and Elaine Marshall do next best, each down 42-31. They're followed by Cal Cunningham at 42-30, Kevin Foy at 43-29, and Kenneth Lewis at 43-27.
It's always worth a reminder that Elizabeth Dole led Kay Hagan 43-27 the first time we tested that match up.
The key take away from those numbers probably isn't the variation in where the Democrats poll, which is largely a function of name recognition at this point, but in the lack of variability in Burr's number. He's at 41-43% against all comers, similar to how he was at 43% against four potential opponents we tested him against last month.
That speaks to the fact that it really might not matter who the Democratic candidate ends up being. With Burr's numbers where they are, if the political climate moves back in a Democratic direction any candidate who can raise some money, has something to say and can avoid making a fool of themselves is probably going to beat him. But if things stay the way they are today, or move in a more Republican direction, none of them are going to beat him.
That reality is kind of reflected in how the generic ballot has moved in the last few months. In June, when Barack Obama's approval rating was still pretty strong, Burr trailed a generic Democrat 41-38. Now he leads 45-38 on that question. His approval rating was mired in the 30s both then and now, but his prospects for reelection have improved as discontent with Obama and Congressional Democrats has risen.
That fact is particularly acute with independents. In June Burr had a 39-32 generic ballot lead with them. Now that's 46-24.
Elaine Marshall's entry ensures that Democrats will have at least one credible Senate candidate with the possibility of more choices on the way. Now we just have to wait and see which way the wind blows.
Full results here
38% of North Carolina voters like the job Burr is doing while 32% disapprove. That's unchanged from PPP's August poll. He gets good marks from 66% of Republicans, 34% of independents, and 20% of Democrats.
Burr's number with Republicans is actually the second best it's been all year. It was at its highest in February when he was visible in his opposition to the stimulus and now it's up again as he's been in the spotlight for his opposition to Barack Obama on health care reform. Clearly that stuff ingratiates him to the GOP base.
Bob Etheridge polls the strongest of the Democratic candidates against Burr, trailing 41-34. Dennis Wicker and Elaine Marshall do next best, each down 42-31. They're followed by Cal Cunningham at 42-30, Kevin Foy at 43-29, and Kenneth Lewis at 43-27.
It's always worth a reminder that Elizabeth Dole led Kay Hagan 43-27 the first time we tested that match up.
The key take away from those numbers probably isn't the variation in where the Democrats poll, which is largely a function of name recognition at this point, but in the lack of variability in Burr's number. He's at 41-43% against all comers, similar to how he was at 43% against four potential opponents we tested him against last month.
That speaks to the fact that it really might not matter who the Democratic candidate ends up being. With Burr's numbers where they are, if the political climate moves back in a Democratic direction any candidate who can raise some money, has something to say and can avoid making a fool of themselves is probably going to beat him. But if things stay the way they are today, or move in a more Republican direction, none of them are going to beat him.
That reality is kind of reflected in how the generic ballot has moved in the last few months. In June, when Barack Obama's approval rating was still pretty strong, Burr trailed a generic Democrat 41-38. Now he leads 45-38 on that question. His approval rating was mired in the 30s both then and now, but his prospects for reelection have improved as discontent with Obama and Congressional Democrats has risen.
That fact is particularly acute with independents. In June Burr had a 39-32 generic ballot lead with them. Now that's 46-24.
Elaine Marshall's entry ensures that Democrats will have at least one credible Senate candidate with the possibility of more choices on the way. Now we just have to wait and see which way the wind blows.
Full results here
Thursday, September 10, 2009
What I'll be watching on our health care polling
Barack Obama's speech last night seems to have been a success but I don't put a ton of stock into the long run meaningfulness of instant polls.
Our polling is finding most voter groups pretty intractable on Obama's health care agenda. Support among moderate and liberal Democrats runs from 70% on up. Opposition among moderate and conservative Republicans and conservatives independents runs from 80% on up.
That leaves conservative Democrats and moderate independents as the swing groups Obama needed to reach with his speech last night.
We've found different results on different polls for both of those groups on health care. With moderate independents we found 55% support in North Carolina, 43% in Colorado, 36% in Arkansas, and 30% in Virginia. Nationally it fell in the middle of those numbers at 42%.
Same variability with conservative Democrats- 63% support in Colorado and 62% in Virginia, but just 42% in North Carolina and 41% in Arkansas. When we polled it nationally it was at 69% with that group but that was four weeks ago now and I think the North Carolina number is reflective of a decline.
So what I'm really going to be looking at in polling over the next couple weeks to see if last night was a 'game changer' is the numbers with those two groups- if he can push up to 60-70% support with both of them for his health care goals it's an indication the tide has turned. If it's more in the 45-55 range I think we're right where we were 48 hours ago. And obviously if it's lower that makes the battle that much tougher.
Our polling is finding most voter groups pretty intractable on Obama's health care agenda. Support among moderate and liberal Democrats runs from 70% on up. Opposition among moderate and conservative Republicans and conservatives independents runs from 80% on up.
That leaves conservative Democrats and moderate independents as the swing groups Obama needed to reach with his speech last night.
We've found different results on different polls for both of those groups on health care. With moderate independents we found 55% support in North Carolina, 43% in Colorado, 36% in Arkansas, and 30% in Virginia. Nationally it fell in the middle of those numbers at 42%.
Same variability with conservative Democrats- 63% support in Colorado and 62% in Virginia, but just 42% in North Carolina and 41% in Arkansas. When we polled it nationally it was at 69% with that group but that was four weeks ago now and I think the North Carolina number is reflective of a decline.
So what I'm really going to be looking at in polling over the next couple weeks to see if last night was a 'game changer' is the numbers with those two groups- if he can push up to 60-70% support with both of them for his health care goals it's an indication the tide has turned. If it's more in the 45-55 range I think we're right where we were 48 hours ago. And obviously if it's lower that makes the battle that much tougher.
Wilson Poll
We're going to put a poll in the field tonight in Joe Wilson's Congressional District...usually we have more time to think through what we're going to put on a poll and I want to make sure we don't miss any important angles...so here's the draft questionnaire...do we need to add anything? It's going to be final at about 3:15.
One thing I'm going to say right away: don't underestimate the possibility that Wilson's constituents don't really care about this whole incident. It obviously still makes Wilson more vulnerable because of the fundraising issue but it may be that a lot of his constituents agree with the sentiment, if not with how he expressed it.
One thing I'm going to say right away: don't underestimate the possibility that Wilson's constituents don't really care about this whole incident. It obviously still makes Wilson more vulnerable because of the fundraising issue but it may be that a lot of his constituents agree with the sentiment, if not with how he expressed it.
1) Obama approval
2) Obama health care
3) Do you approve or disapprove of Congressman Joe Wilson’s job performance? If you approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3.
4) If the candidates for Congress next year were Democrat Rob Miller and Republican Joe Wilson, who would you vote for? If Rob Miller, press 1. If Joe Wilson, press 2. If you’re undecided, press 3.
5) Do you approve or disapprove of Joe Wilson’s actions at Barack Obama’s speech to Congress on Wednesday night? If you approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3.
6) Do you think that Barack Obama was lying when he said his health care plan would not cover illegal immigrants? If yes, press 1. If no, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3.
7) Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Mark Sanford’s job performance? If you approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3.
8) Do you think that Mark Sanford should resign as Governor? If yes, press 1. If no, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3.
9) Do you think that Barack Obama’s speech to the schoolchildren of
10) Do you think Barack Obama was born in the
11) Ideology
12) Gender
13) Party
14) Race
15) Age
Taking suggestions...
We have a blank hole in the state poll schedule next week so we'll take nominations on where to poll until Sunday, then let you vote on the finalists between Sunday and Wednesday.
Primary criteria as always:
1) We want to poll something there's little or no other polling on...the world doesn't need another poll showing Charlie Crist is the favorite for the open Florida Senate seat.
2) We're particularly interested in looking at races for Governor and Senator that might be more competitive than is the conventional wisdom.
Maybe I should add a third criterion that we want to poll something that might make Democrats happy...we've delivered enough bad news lately!
The last three states we polled based on your votes were Colorado, Louisiana, and Oklahoma.
Fire away!
Primary criteria as always:
1) We want to poll something there's little or no other polling on...the world doesn't need another poll showing Charlie Crist is the favorite for the open Florida Senate seat.
2) We're particularly interested in looking at races for Governor and Senator that might be more competitive than is the conventional wisdom.
Maybe I should add a third criterion that we want to poll something that might make Democrats happy...we've delivered enough bad news lately!
The last three states we polled based on your votes were Colorado, Louisiana, and Oklahoma.
Fire away!
Obama continues to decline
For the fifth month in a row Barack Obama's approval rating has declined in North Carolina. A 51% majority of voters in the state now say they disapprove of his job performance while 45% give him good marks.
Obama's NC approval peaked at 54% in April. Since then it's gone to 51% in May, 50% in June, 49% in July, and 46% in August.
The two main places where Obama's losing support are with white Democrats and independents. After winning 71% of the white Democratic vote last fall, he actually bolstered his support with that demographic in the first half of 2009, pushing his approval with them up to 78% in our April poll. But now it stands at just 64%.
There's not much doubt health care is driving Obama's troubles on that front. There is literally no support for him on the issue with the white Democrats who disapprove of his job performance- 46 who fit that label say they're opposed to what Obama wants to do on health care and one is unsure.
Our final poll last fall had Obama winning the independent vote 50-46 and our April poll found that exact same spread in his approval. Now his positive standing with that group has declined to 39% with 56% of them disapproving of how he's doing.
How does Obama get out of this rut? It really is all about the economy. Increased turnout from African Americans and young voters certainly played a big part in Obama winning the state last year, but he still couldn't have done it without doing better with white Democrats and independents than recent nominees had.
He was able to do that largely because the economy had gotten so bad under Republican control that those voters figured there was a better chance of it getting turned around with a new party in power.
Some economists may be saying that the recession is over but most families are still feeling it in their every day life. If that begins to move in a positive direction over the next six months, Obama's approval rating more than likely will as well. But if it doesn't the slow creep downward could continue.
There's been no real movement in public opinion about health care over the last month. 40% of voters say they support Obama on the issue while 52% are opposed. In August that broke down 39/50.
Full results here
Obama's NC approval peaked at 54% in April. Since then it's gone to 51% in May, 50% in June, 49% in July, and 46% in August.
The two main places where Obama's losing support are with white Democrats and independents. After winning 71% of the white Democratic vote last fall, he actually bolstered his support with that demographic in the first half of 2009, pushing his approval with them up to 78% in our April poll. But now it stands at just 64%.
There's not much doubt health care is driving Obama's troubles on that front. There is literally no support for him on the issue with the white Democrats who disapprove of his job performance- 46 who fit that label say they're opposed to what Obama wants to do on health care and one is unsure.
Our final poll last fall had Obama winning the independent vote 50-46 and our April poll found that exact same spread in his approval. Now his positive standing with that group has declined to 39% with 56% of them disapproving of how he's doing.
How does Obama get out of this rut? It really is all about the economy. Increased turnout from African Americans and young voters certainly played a big part in Obama winning the state last year, but he still couldn't have done it without doing better with white Democrats and independents than recent nominees had.
He was able to do that largely because the economy had gotten so bad under Republican control that those voters figured there was a better chance of it getting turned around with a new party in power.
Some economists may be saying that the recession is over but most families are still feeling it in their every day life. If that begins to move in a positive direction over the next six months, Obama's approval rating more than likely will as well. But if it doesn't the slow creep downward could continue.
There's been no real movement in public opinion about health care over the last month. 40% of voters say they support Obama on the issue while 52% are opposed. In August that broke down 39/50.
Full results here
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Marshall's Bid
A reporter asked me this afternoon if Elaine Marshall's candidacy announcement transformed the North Carolina Senate race.
Well honestly, no.
Even after 13 years in statewide office our polling in March found that just 28% of North Carolina voters have a favorable opinion of Marshall. She is largely unknown, as are the rest of the Democrats looking at the race.
When Roy Cooper decided not to run that was basically the end of the possibility of Richard Burr losing because voters liked someone more than him. The race at this point is going to be determined by whether Democrats can get more people to decide they don't like Burr than Republicans can get to decide they don't like Barack Obama. It will be a race about what people don't like rather than what they like. I don't think it matters that much who the Democratic nominee is, as long as they can raise some money and keep from doing anything stupid.
It was very much the same situation last year. Kay Hagan did a good job but there are probably two dozen other North Carolina Democrats who could have won that race too with the way the DSCC was able to destroy Elizabeth Dole.
Marshall did poll the best out of herself, Cal Cunningham, Kenneth Lewis, and Kevin Foy last month. But Richard Burr got the same 43% against all four of them. In the Senate numbers we'll be releasing on Friday including six potential contenders Burr got 43% against two of them, 42% against three of them, and 41% against one of them.
Given differences in name recognition for the Democratic possibilities the number they hold Burr to in polling at this point is more meaningful than their share, and there is basically no difference in Marshall, Cunningham, Lewis, Foy, Wicker, and Etheridge's early performance. From the standpoint of beating Burr it doesn't matter who the nominee is based on where the candidates start out with North Carolina voters.
What's the bottom line? If Marshall proves to be a superior fundraiser to whoever else ends up getting in, then she'll probably win the nomination. If Wicker or Etheridge runs she won't be the superior fundraiser but if neither of them do she most likely will be. At the end of the day it doesn't matter- if voters dislike Richard Burr more than Barack Obama any of these Democrats have a good chance to win. And if Obama has a bad approval rating in the state, none of the Democrats is going to win. So it's good for Democrats that Marshall is in because she fits the profile of being able to raise some money and keep from making a fool of herself, but I don't think it changes the chances of Burr losing one way or the other.
Well honestly, no.
Even after 13 years in statewide office our polling in March found that just 28% of North Carolina voters have a favorable opinion of Marshall. She is largely unknown, as are the rest of the Democrats looking at the race.
When Roy Cooper decided not to run that was basically the end of the possibility of Richard Burr losing because voters liked someone more than him. The race at this point is going to be determined by whether Democrats can get more people to decide they don't like Burr than Republicans can get to decide they don't like Barack Obama. It will be a race about what people don't like rather than what they like. I don't think it matters that much who the Democratic nominee is, as long as they can raise some money and keep from doing anything stupid.
It was very much the same situation last year. Kay Hagan did a good job but there are probably two dozen other North Carolina Democrats who could have won that race too with the way the DSCC was able to destroy Elizabeth Dole.
Marshall did poll the best out of herself, Cal Cunningham, Kenneth Lewis, and Kevin Foy last month. But Richard Burr got the same 43% against all four of them. In the Senate numbers we'll be releasing on Friday including six potential contenders Burr got 43% against two of them, 42% against three of them, and 41% against one of them.
Given differences in name recognition for the Democratic possibilities the number they hold Burr to in polling at this point is more meaningful than their share, and there is basically no difference in Marshall, Cunningham, Lewis, Foy, Wicker, and Etheridge's early performance. From the standpoint of beating Burr it doesn't matter who the nominee is based on where the candidates start out with North Carolina voters.
What's the bottom line? If Marshall proves to be a superior fundraiser to whoever else ends up getting in, then she'll probably win the nomination. If Wicker or Etheridge runs she won't be the superior fundraiser but if neither of them do she most likely will be. At the end of the day it doesn't matter- if voters dislike Richard Burr more than Barack Obama any of these Democrats have a good chance to win. And if Obama has a bad approval rating in the state, none of the Democrats is going to win. So it's good for Democrats that Marshall is in because she fits the profile of being able to raise some money and keep from making a fool of herself, but I don't think it changes the chances of Burr losing one way or the other.
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