When we put our national poll in the field last week a government shutdown still looked pretty likely so we asked a question about whether people thought members of Congress should continue to receive their salaries in such an event- 90% said they should not to only 5% who thought they should keep getting paid.
It got us thinking though about the broader issue of Congressional compensation, especially with first term GOPers Sean Duffy and Renee Ellmers getting themselves in some hot water with comments to the effect that it's hard to live on a $174,000 salary.
So how much do Americans think members of Congress should be paid? A lot less than they're getting paid now was our finding:
-Only 8% of voters think members of Congress should make more than $150,000 a year.
-By comparison 25% of voters think members of Congress should make less than $50,000 a year, including 4% who think they should be paid nothing.
-A 41% plurality of voters think they should make in the range of $50,000 to $100,000 a year.
-Overall 66% of voters think they should make under $100,000 a year.
-There is not a huge partisan divide. Only 9% of Democrats, 9% of independents, and 8% of Republicans believe they should make more than $150,000 a year while 68% of independents, 67% of Republicans, and 63% of Democrats think it should be below the $100,000 threshold.
Seeing those numbers, if I'm running against Ellmers or Duffy next year I'm sure as heck going to be running ads on their salary comments. And if I'm a challenger trying to make some waves I might make an issue out of seriously reducing Congressional compensation- it's one thing voters of all stripes agree on.
Full results here
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Corbett numbers down in the dumps
To the list of states already regretting their new Republican Governor you can add Pennsylvania: Tom Corbett has only a 34% approval rating to 44% of voters disapproving of him and voters say that if they could do it all over again now they'd vote for Democrat Dan Onorato instead, by a 49-44 margin over Corbett.
Pennsylvania joins Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Florida, and Georgia as states where PPP has recently found that if voters had a second chance they would now vote against their new GOP chief executive. Part of that is a reminder of just how much of the Republican gains last year were driven by low Democratic turnout- the party's voters were fat and happy after big wins in 2006 and 2008 and just didn't have the sense of urgency they would have needed to keep that momentum going last year. But the other thing it's reflective of is that there has been somewhat of a shift in the political landscape over the last five months, particularly with independent voters.
Exit polls last year showed Corbett defeating Onorato by 18 points with independent voters. Now Corbett has only a 31% approval rating with them to 38% who disapprove and those folks say they'd vote for Onorato by a 45-41 margin in a redo. In addition to independents turning against all of these newly elected Republican Governors, we also found in polling earlier this week that they've turned against the new Republican Congress.
Independents are unhappy, impatient, and expecting immediate results from the folks they voted into office in November and because they don't feel like they're getting that they're quickly getting negative toward the new GOP officials. It seems safe to say that if last year had been a Democratic year they'd probably already be turning against the Democrats too but for Republicans this is proving to be part of the price of success.
In addition to the upside down numbers for Corbett with independents he's suffering because only 60% of Republicans approve of the job he's doing. There are actually more GOP voters- 22%- who disapprove of his work so far than there are Democrats- 16%- who think he's doing a good job.
Voters in the state are pretty ambivalent toward Pat Toomey, which given Corbett and Barack Obama's unpopularity isn't necessarily a bad place to be. Toomey has a 32% approval rating with 31% of voters disapproving and 37% expressing no opinion. He's on narrowly positive ground with independents at 29/25, and benefits because Republicans (51%) are stronger in their approval of him than Democrats (44%) are in their disapproval.
Full results here
Pennsylvania joins Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Florida, and Georgia as states where PPP has recently found that if voters had a second chance they would now vote against their new GOP chief executive. Part of that is a reminder of just how much of the Republican gains last year were driven by low Democratic turnout- the party's voters were fat and happy after big wins in 2006 and 2008 and just didn't have the sense of urgency they would have needed to keep that momentum going last year. But the other thing it's reflective of is that there has been somewhat of a shift in the political landscape over the last five months, particularly with independent voters.
Exit polls last year showed Corbett defeating Onorato by 18 points with independent voters. Now Corbett has only a 31% approval rating with them to 38% who disapprove and those folks say they'd vote for Onorato by a 45-41 margin in a redo. In addition to independents turning against all of these newly elected Republican Governors, we also found in polling earlier this week that they've turned against the new Republican Congress.
Independents are unhappy, impatient, and expecting immediate results from the folks they voted into office in November and because they don't feel like they're getting that they're quickly getting negative toward the new GOP officials. It seems safe to say that if last year had been a Democratic year they'd probably already be turning against the Democrats too but for Republicans this is proving to be part of the price of success.
In addition to the upside down numbers for Corbett with independents he's suffering because only 60% of Republicans approve of the job he's doing. There are actually more GOP voters- 22%- who disapprove of his work so far than there are Democrats- 16%- who think he's doing a good job.
Voters in the state are pretty ambivalent toward Pat Toomey, which given Corbett and Barack Obama's unpopularity isn't necessarily a bad place to be. Toomey has a 32% approval rating with 31% of voters disapproving and 37% expressing no opinion. He's on narrowly positive ground with independents at 29/25, and benefits because Republicans (51%) are stronger in their approval of him than Democrats (44%) are in their disapproval.
Full results here
Obama leads...but also shows weakness
Barack Obama continues to lead all of his top potential 2012 opponents for reelection...but his advantage over all of those Republicans might not really be quite as big as it looks.
Obama's up 5 points on Mike Huckabee at 48-43, 6 on Mitt Romney at 47-41, 9 on Chris Christie at 48-39, 10 on Rand Paul at 48-38, 14 on Newt Gingrich at 52-38, and 18 on Sarah Palin at 54-36.
Here's the catch though: in every one of those match ups the vast majority of undecided voters disapprove of Obama...they just either don't yet know or not yet completely sold on the potential Republican candidates so they go into the undecided column. Chances are when push comes to shove those folks are going to vote against Obama if they don't think he's doing a good job. So we also calculated the numbers allocating the undecideds based on their approval or disapproval of Obama- when you do that Obama only leads Romney and Huckabee 51-49, is just up 52-48 on Paul and Christie, has a 54-46 advantage over Gingrich, and still wallops Palin if only by a 56-44 margin.
This is just one poll but my guess is that with the vast majority of 2012 horse race polls you're seeing right now this phenomenon of most of the undecideds being Obama disapprovers is in place and that means the leads he's posting in these surveys are perhaps not quite as comfortable as they might appear at first glance.
Obama has narrowly negative approval ratings with 47% of voters giving him good marks to 48% who think he's doing a bad job. His saving grace continues to be the Republican candidate field, the universal unpopularity of which allows Obama to lead in head to heads despite his own weak numbers. Interestingly Christie has the best net favorability of the folks we tested this month at -2 (28/30). He's followed by Huckabee at -6 (36/42), Romney at -11 (32/43), Paul at -19 (26/45), Gingrich at -27 (28/55), and Palin at -30 (31/61). Right now Republicans aren't fully capitalizing on Obama's unpopularity because all of their own candidates are so unappealing but if that changes things will be looking even dicier for Obama.
Obama is definitely weaker right now than he was in 2008- his leads over Huckabee and Romney here are smaller than this margin of victory over John McCain even before you allocate the undecideds. The big question just continues to be whether the GOP will nominate someone who can take advantage of Obama's vulnerability or if they'll nominate someone so extreme that voters with reservations about Obama end up voting for him anyway as the lesser of two evils.
Full results here
Obama's up 5 points on Mike Huckabee at 48-43, 6 on Mitt Romney at 47-41, 9 on Chris Christie at 48-39, 10 on Rand Paul at 48-38, 14 on Newt Gingrich at 52-38, and 18 on Sarah Palin at 54-36.
Here's the catch though: in every one of those match ups the vast majority of undecided voters disapprove of Obama...they just either don't yet know or not yet completely sold on the potential Republican candidates so they go into the undecided column. Chances are when push comes to shove those folks are going to vote against Obama if they don't think he's doing a good job. So we also calculated the numbers allocating the undecideds based on their approval or disapproval of Obama- when you do that Obama only leads Romney and Huckabee 51-49, is just up 52-48 on Paul and Christie, has a 54-46 advantage over Gingrich, and still wallops Palin if only by a 56-44 margin.
This is just one poll but my guess is that with the vast majority of 2012 horse race polls you're seeing right now this phenomenon of most of the undecideds being Obama disapprovers is in place and that means the leads he's posting in these surveys are perhaps not quite as comfortable as they might appear at first glance.
Obama has narrowly negative approval ratings with 47% of voters giving him good marks to 48% who think he's doing a bad job. His saving grace continues to be the Republican candidate field, the universal unpopularity of which allows Obama to lead in head to heads despite his own weak numbers. Interestingly Christie has the best net favorability of the folks we tested this month at -2 (28/30). He's followed by Huckabee at -6 (36/42), Romney at -11 (32/43), Paul at -19 (26/45), Gingrich at -27 (28/55), and Palin at -30 (31/61). Right now Republicans aren't fully capitalizing on Obama's unpopularity because all of their own candidates are so unappealing but if that changes things will be looking even dicier for Obama.
Obama is definitely weaker right now than he was in 2008- his leads over Huckabee and Romney here are smaller than this margin of victory over John McCain even before you allocate the undecideds. The big question just continues to be whether the GOP will nominate someone who can take advantage of Obama's vulnerability or if they'll nominate someone so extreme that voters with reservations about Obama end up voting for him anyway as the lesser of two evils.
Full results here
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Time for voting again...
North Carolina's on deck for one of our polls this coming weekend and the other is your choice between:
-Arizona. I still feel a little iffy about including Gabrielle Giffords in a poll but there's not much point in doing one on the Arizona Senate race without her so if that's what folks vote for then that's what we'll do.
-Iowa. It's been over three months now since we polled Republican voters in Iowa so we're about due to do another comprehensive poll there akin to the one we did in New Hampshire last week.
-New Mexico. Haven't polled it since it became an open seat, my sense is that this race is much less of a toss up than people are giving it credit for (we found Martin Heinrich up 50-39 on Heather Wilson the first weekend of February) but maybe it's tightened since Jeff Bingaman's retirement.
-Nevada. Another one that we haven't polled since the incumbent announced his retirement, and of course it's also likely to be an important state once again in the Presidential race.
Voting's open until about 4 PM Wednesday and then we'll open up a thread for suggestions on what to poll in the winning state, as well as what to ask about in North Carolina. And if you have North Carolina ideas already feel free to go ahead and post them here.
-Arizona. I still feel a little iffy about including Gabrielle Giffords in a poll but there's not much point in doing one on the Arizona Senate race without her so if that's what folks vote for then that's what we'll do.
-Iowa. It's been over three months now since we polled Republican voters in Iowa so we're about due to do another comprehensive poll there akin to the one we did in New Hampshire last week.
-New Mexico. Haven't polled it since it became an open seat, my sense is that this race is much less of a toss up than people are giving it credit for (we found Martin Heinrich up 50-39 on Heather Wilson the first weekend of February) but maybe it's tightened since Jeff Bingaman's retirement.
-Nevada. Another one that we haven't polled since the incumbent announced his retirement, and of course it's also likely to be an important state once again in the Presidential race.
Voting's open until about 4 PM Wednesday and then we'll open up a thread for suggestions on what to poll in the winning state, as well as what to ask about in North Carolina. And if you have North Carolina ideas already feel free to go ahead and post them here.
Gingrich weak in Georgia GOP poll
We've had a lot of bad poll news for Newt Gingrich over the last couple months but this might be the worst: he's not even the top choice of Republicans in Georgia to be their nominee for President next year.
23% of GOP primary voters in the state say Mike Huckabee is their preference to be the party standard bearer next year to 22% for Gingrich, 16% for Herman Cain, 10% for Sarah Palin, 8% for Mitt Romney, 4% for Michele Bachmann, and 3% for Ron Paul and Tim Pawlenty.
If Gingrich isn't even the first choice of GOP voters in his own home state you have to wonder where exactly his support in this campaign will come from. Georgia Republicans simply don't like Gingrich nearly as much as they like Huckabee. The former Arkansas Governor's favorability is a +61 spread at 75/14, putting him 22 points ahead of the +39 spread Gingrich enjoys at 62/23. They're followed by Palin at +27 (58/31), Cain at +21 (44/23), and Romney at +18 (50/32).
Cain's 16% standing is pretty impressive for several reasons. His third place finish comes despite having 15% less name recognition than the rest of the quartet. And even though he's competing with a second home state candidate he still does better in Georgia than Sarah Palin does in Alaska (15%), Gary Johnson does in New Mexico (13%), or Rick Santorum does in Pennsylvania (11%). The fact that Cain is the first choice of so many of the people who are familiar with him bodes well for his prospects if he can muster the resources to run a serious campaign.
If you take Cain out of the mix in Georgia Gingrich does lead the way with 31% to 24% for Huckabee, 10% for Palin, 8% for Romney, 5% for Bachmann, 4% for Paul and Pawlenty, and 3% for Haley Barbour.
Full results here
23% of GOP primary voters in the state say Mike Huckabee is their preference to be the party standard bearer next year to 22% for Gingrich, 16% for Herman Cain, 10% for Sarah Palin, 8% for Mitt Romney, 4% for Michele Bachmann, and 3% for Ron Paul and Tim Pawlenty.
If Gingrich isn't even the first choice of GOP voters in his own home state you have to wonder where exactly his support in this campaign will come from. Georgia Republicans simply don't like Gingrich nearly as much as they like Huckabee. The former Arkansas Governor's favorability is a +61 spread at 75/14, putting him 22 points ahead of the +39 spread Gingrich enjoys at 62/23. They're followed by Palin at +27 (58/31), Cain at +21 (44/23), and Romney at +18 (50/32).
Cain's 16% standing is pretty impressive for several reasons. His third place finish comes despite having 15% less name recognition than the rest of the quartet. And even though he's competing with a second home state candidate he still does better in Georgia than Sarah Palin does in Alaska (15%), Gary Johnson does in New Mexico (13%), or Rick Santorum does in Pennsylvania (11%). The fact that Cain is the first choice of so many of the people who are familiar with him bodes well for his prospects if he can muster the resources to run a serious campaign.
If you take Cain out of the mix in Georgia Gingrich does lead the way with 31% to 24% for Huckabee, 10% for Palin, 8% for Romney, 5% for Bachmann, 4% for Paul and Pawlenty, and 3% for Haley Barbour.
Full results here
Obama in dicey shape in Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania's looking like it could be a very tough state for Barack Obama in 2012. His approval rating there is only 42% with 52% of voters disapproving of him, and he's within the margin of error in the state against 3 potential Republican opponents, a far cry from his double digit victory there in 2008.
Obama has two major problems in the state: independents and white Democrats. A majority of independents disapprove of him- 54% give him bad marks to 39% who think he's doing a good job. More concerning is that his approval rating with Democrats is only 68%, well below the 81% we find for him nationally. He's doing fine with black Democrats- an 86% approval rating- but with white Democrats he's at only a 64/27 spread.
Those numbers suggest that a lot of the voters who fueled Hillary Clinton's primary victory in the state and then sucked it up and voted for Obama in the general election the last time around haven't been real thrilled with what they've seen from him so far and could split their tickets next year- if the Republicans put up someone who's seen as a reasonable alternative.
Obama is basically tied in the state with Mitt Romney, who he trails 43-42, Mike Huckabee, who he leads 45-44, and Rick Santorum, who he leads 45-43. What has to be concerning for Obama beyond those topline numbers is that the Republicans poll competitively with him despite the fact that they themselves are not well liked. Huckabee's net favorability is a -6 spread at 37/43, and Romney and Santorum are both at -10 spreads at 31/41 and 37/47 respectively. The fact that they tie Obama without being all that appealing makes you wonder how much trouble the President will be in here if the party's nomination process actually does result in a strong candidate.
Of course the Republicans could bail Obama out- if either Newt Gingrich or Sarah Palin ended up as their party nominee. If their GOP peers are slightly unpopular Gingrich and Palin are positively reviled by voters in the state- Gingrich's favorability is 25/54 and he trails Obama 47-39 while Palin's favorability is 33/61 and she trails Obama 50-39. Obama's looking at a landslide in Pennsylvania and everywhere else for that matter if one of those folks were to somehow snag the nomination.
Obama's position in Pennsylvania is undeniably precarious- whether the GOP will be able to take advantage or not remains to be seen.
Full results here
Obama has two major problems in the state: independents and white Democrats. A majority of independents disapprove of him- 54% give him bad marks to 39% who think he's doing a good job. More concerning is that his approval rating with Democrats is only 68%, well below the 81% we find for him nationally. He's doing fine with black Democrats- an 86% approval rating- but with white Democrats he's at only a 64/27 spread.
Those numbers suggest that a lot of the voters who fueled Hillary Clinton's primary victory in the state and then sucked it up and voted for Obama in the general election the last time around haven't been real thrilled with what they've seen from him so far and could split their tickets next year- if the Republicans put up someone who's seen as a reasonable alternative.
Obama is basically tied in the state with Mitt Romney, who he trails 43-42, Mike Huckabee, who he leads 45-44, and Rick Santorum, who he leads 45-43. What has to be concerning for Obama beyond those topline numbers is that the Republicans poll competitively with him despite the fact that they themselves are not well liked. Huckabee's net favorability is a -6 spread at 37/43, and Romney and Santorum are both at -10 spreads at 31/41 and 37/47 respectively. The fact that they tie Obama without being all that appealing makes you wonder how much trouble the President will be in here if the party's nomination process actually does result in a strong candidate.
Of course the Republicans could bail Obama out- if either Newt Gingrich or Sarah Palin ended up as their party nominee. If their GOP peers are slightly unpopular Gingrich and Palin are positively reviled by voters in the state- Gingrich's favorability is 25/54 and he trails Obama 47-39 while Palin's favorability is 33/61 and she trails Obama 50-39. Obama's looking at a landslide in Pennsylvania and everywhere else for that matter if one of those folks were to somehow snag the nomination.
Obama's position in Pennsylvania is undeniably precarious- whether the GOP will be able to take advantage or not remains to be seen.
Full results here
Bad news for Congressional Republicans
PPP's newest national poll finds that after a little more than 3 months in charge House Republicans have fallen so far out of favor with the American public that it's entirely possible Democrats could take control of the House back next year.
43% of voters think that House Republicans are doing a worse job now than the Democrats did, compared to only 36% who think the GOP has brought an improvement. 19% think things are about the same. 62% of voters thinking that the Republicans have either made things worse or brought no improvement to an already unpopular Congress does not bode particularly well for the party.
46% of voters say that if there was an election for Congress today they would vote Democratic, compared to only 41% who would vote Republican. That five point advantage for Democrats is only a hair below the margin Republicans won by in the national popular vote last year. A victory of that magnitude for the Democrats next year would at the very least result in the party taking back a large number of the seats it lost last year, and it could be enough to take back the outright majority- hard to say at this point without knowing how good a number the GOP can do in redistricting.
The key to this strong movement back toward the Democrats right now is the same as the key to the strong movement away from the Democrats last year- fickle independents quickly growing unhappy with the party in power. Exit polls showed independents supporting the GOP by a 19 point margin last year at 56-37. Now only 30% of those voters think that the Republican controlled House is moving things in the right direction, compared to 44% who think things were better with the Democrats. Given those numbers it's not much of a surprise that independents now say they'd vote Democratic for the House by a 42-33 margin if these was an election today, representing a 28 point reversal in a span of just five months.
These poll numbers also point to the reality that Republicans taking control of the House may have been one of the best things that could possibly have happened for Obama's reelection prospects. Although we found the President with slightly negative approval numbers on this poll, when asked whether they had more faith in Obama or Congressional Republicans to lead the country in the right direction 48% of voters picked Obama to only 42% who went with Congressional Republicans. Voters may not love Obama as once they did but they're finding him to be more reasonable than the alternative and that means it will be hard for the GOP to knock him off next year without a top notch nominee.
One thing is very much for certain- it's not 2010 anymore.
Full results here
43% of voters think that House Republicans are doing a worse job now than the Democrats did, compared to only 36% who think the GOP has brought an improvement. 19% think things are about the same. 62% of voters thinking that the Republicans have either made things worse or brought no improvement to an already unpopular Congress does not bode particularly well for the party.
46% of voters say that if there was an election for Congress today they would vote Democratic, compared to only 41% who would vote Republican. That five point advantage for Democrats is only a hair below the margin Republicans won by in the national popular vote last year. A victory of that magnitude for the Democrats next year would at the very least result in the party taking back a large number of the seats it lost last year, and it could be enough to take back the outright majority- hard to say at this point without knowing how good a number the GOP can do in redistricting.
The key to this strong movement back toward the Democrats right now is the same as the key to the strong movement away from the Democrats last year- fickle independents quickly growing unhappy with the party in power. Exit polls showed independents supporting the GOP by a 19 point margin last year at 56-37. Now only 30% of those voters think that the Republican controlled House is moving things in the right direction, compared to 44% who think things were better with the Democrats. Given those numbers it's not much of a surprise that independents now say they'd vote Democratic for the House by a 42-33 margin if these was an election today, representing a 28 point reversal in a span of just five months.
These poll numbers also point to the reality that Republicans taking control of the House may have been one of the best things that could possibly have happened for Obama's reelection prospects. Although we found the President with slightly negative approval numbers on this poll, when asked whether they had more faith in Obama or Congressional Republicans to lead the country in the right direction 48% of voters picked Obama to only 42% who went with Congressional Republicans. Voters may not love Obama as once they did but they're finding him to be more reasonable than the alternative and that means it will be hard for the GOP to knock him off next year without a top notch nominee.
One thing is very much for certain- it's not 2010 anymore.
Full results here
Monday, April 11, 2011
Mississippi Miscellaneous
-He's been out of office for several years now but Trent Lott might still be the most beloved political figure in Mississippi. 54% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him, compared to just 26% with an unfavorable one. His popularity cuts across party lines. Republicans overwhelmingly see him in a positive light (a 74/16 favorability spread) and he's also on positive ground with independents (44/35) and even Democrats (38/32).
The most interesting thing in Lott's numbers might be that 32% of African Americans rate him favorably to only 30% who express dislike for him. That suggests that Mississippi blacks have either forgiven Lott for his comments on Strom Thurmond in 2002 that ended up casting him out of Senate leadership, or that they just weren't all that concerned about the comments in the first place.
-Mississippi Democrats start out with the advantage to keep the one major statewide office they still hold. Attorney General Jim Hood leads Republican challenger Steve Simpson 49-32. Hood is doing a good job of keeping the Democratic base in line, leading 74-12 within his own party, and is picking up an impressive 27% of Republicans while also leading 43-34 with independents. Still, given the recent political winds in Mississippi it seems unlikely this race will do anything but tighten and we'll see if Hood can hold on or not.
-Thad Cochran is one of the more popular Senators in the country with a 52/25 approval rating. Republican support for him is pretty universal at a 67/16 spread and he does well with Democrats (41/28) and independents (46/37). With Cochran, Roger Wicker, and Haley Barbour all over 50% approval Mississippi is more content with its politicians than just about any state in the country.
Full results here
The most interesting thing in Lott's numbers might be that 32% of African Americans rate him favorably to only 30% who express dislike for him. That suggests that Mississippi blacks have either forgiven Lott for his comments on Strom Thurmond in 2002 that ended up casting him out of Senate leadership, or that they just weren't all that concerned about the comments in the first place.
-Mississippi Democrats start out with the advantage to keep the one major statewide office they still hold. Attorney General Jim Hood leads Republican challenger Steve Simpson 49-32. Hood is doing a good job of keeping the Democratic base in line, leading 74-12 within his own party, and is picking up an impressive 27% of Republicans while also leading 43-34 with independents. Still, given the recent political winds in Mississippi it seems unlikely this race will do anything but tighten and we'll see if Hood can hold on or not.
-Thad Cochran is one of the more popular Senators in the country with a 52/25 approval rating. Republican support for him is pretty universal at a 67/16 spread and he does well with Democrats (41/28) and independents (46/37). With Cochran, Roger Wicker, and Haley Barbour all over 50% approval Mississippi is more content with its politicians than just about any state in the country.
Full results here
New Hampshire Hodge Podge
-There's been very little polling so far this cycle on individual members of Congress but what we found in New Hampshire hints at the shakiness of the new Republican majority in the US House. Charlie Bass and Frank Guinta have both fallen quickly out of favor with their constituents- Guinta's favorability is 34/41 and Bass' is 31/49 in their respective districts.
Guinta and Bass won less on their own merits than because a) voters were unhappy with Democrats and b) because Democratic leaning voters stayed home in large numbers. Voters are now finding that they don't like the Republicans in the House any better than they liked the Democrats- a 30/56 approval spread for Congressional Republicans on our last national poll. And Democrats are waking up and likely to be back at the polls next year after taking last year off because they're seeing that there are real consequences to their slumber last year.
The New Hampshire House seats could both very well go back in the Democratic direction next year and you wonder how many other first term members of Congress are facing similar numbers right now as the independents who fueled their election turn quickly against them.
-Kelly Ayotte is off to a better start than her freshman counterparts in the House. 46% of voters approve of the job she's doing to 34% who disapprove. That also makes her the most popular out of the six new GOP Senators we've polled on- she does better than colleagues Roy Blunt, Marco Rubio, Rob Portman, Pat Toomey, and Ron Johnson. She has the third best approval numbers out of all first term Senators we've polled on- Democrats Joe Manchin and Richard Blumenthal lead the way. Ayotte's doing well because independents like her (41/29) and Republicans are more unified in liking her (75%) than Democrats are in disliking her (57%).
-Ayotte's not quite as popular as her senior colleague Jeanne Shaheen though. Shaheen has a 50% approval rating with 36% of voters disapproving of her. Those numbers are much better than what we found for Shaheen at any stage last year- that's likely more a reflection of it simply not being 2010 anymore than anything Shaheen might be doing differently right now.
-Democrats may quickly overturn a lot of their 2010 losses in the state legislature next year. On a generic ballot question 49% of voters say they'd vote Democratic today to 41% who say they'd go for the Republicans. This is another place where independents turning back away from the GOP tells the story- they're leaning Democratic for the legislature by a 46/34 margin.
Full results here
Guinta and Bass won less on their own merits than because a) voters were unhappy with Democrats and b) because Democratic leaning voters stayed home in large numbers. Voters are now finding that they don't like the Republicans in the House any better than they liked the Democrats- a 30/56 approval spread for Congressional Republicans on our last national poll. And Democrats are waking up and likely to be back at the polls next year after taking last year off because they're seeing that there are real consequences to their slumber last year.
The New Hampshire House seats could both very well go back in the Democratic direction next year and you wonder how many other first term members of Congress are facing similar numbers right now as the independents who fueled their election turn quickly against them.
-Kelly Ayotte is off to a better start than her freshman counterparts in the House. 46% of voters approve of the job she's doing to 34% who disapprove. That also makes her the most popular out of the six new GOP Senators we've polled on- she does better than colleagues Roy Blunt, Marco Rubio, Rob Portman, Pat Toomey, and Ron Johnson. She has the third best approval numbers out of all first term Senators we've polled on- Democrats Joe Manchin and Richard Blumenthal lead the way. Ayotte's doing well because independents like her (41/29) and Republicans are more unified in liking her (75%) than Democrats are in disliking her (57%).
-Ayotte's not quite as popular as her senior colleague Jeanne Shaheen though. Shaheen has a 50% approval rating with 36% of voters disapproving of her. Those numbers are much better than what we found for Shaheen at any stage last year- that's likely more a reflection of it simply not being 2010 anymore than anything Shaheen might be doing differently right now.
-Democrats may quickly overturn a lot of their 2010 losses in the state legislature next year. On a generic ballot question 49% of voters say they'd vote Democratic today to 41% who say they'd go for the Republicans. This is another place where independents turning back away from the GOP tells the story- they're leaning Democratic for the legislature by a 46/34 margin.
Full results here
Thursday, April 7, 2011
The argument against interracial marriage
When we asked about the interracial marriage issue in Mississippi we got an e-mail from a poll respondent explaining her answer that it should be 'illegal:'
_________________________________
I believe God made us a different color for a reason and should be honored by not marrying outside of the race that God picked for me, however the color of one's skin does not make him/her better than another color.
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I believe God made us a different color for a reason and should be honored by not marrying outside of the race that God picked for me, however the color of one's skin does not make him/her better than another color.
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