Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Gingrich weak in Georgia GOP poll

We've had a lot of bad poll news for Newt Gingrich over the last couple months but this might be the worst: he's not even the top choice of Republicans in Georgia to be their nominee for President next year.

23% of GOP primary voters in the state say Mike Huckabee is their preference to be the party standard bearer next year to 22% for Gingrich, 16% for Herman Cain, 10% for Sarah Palin, 8% for Mitt Romney, 4% for Michele Bachmann, and 3% for Ron Paul and Tim Pawlenty.

If Gingrich isn't even the first choice of GOP voters in his own home state you have to wonder where exactly his support in this campaign will come from. Georgia Republicans simply don't like Gingrich nearly as much as they like Huckabee. The former Arkansas Governor's favorability is a +61 spread at 75/14, putting him 22 points ahead of the +39 spread Gingrich enjoys at 62/23. They're followed by Palin at +27 (58/31), Cain at +21 (44/23), and Romney at +18 (50/32).

Cain's 16% standing is pretty impressive for several reasons. His third place finish comes despite having 15% less name recognition than the rest of the quartet. And even though he's competing with a second home state candidate he still does better in Georgia than Sarah Palin does in Alaska (15%), Gary Johnson does in New Mexico (13%), or Rick Santorum does in Pennsylvania (11%). The fact that Cain is the first choice of so many of the people who are familiar with him bodes well for his prospects if he can muster the resources to run a serious campaign.

If you take Cain out of the mix in Georgia Gingrich does lead the way with 31% to 24% for Huckabee, 10% for Palin, 8% for Romney, 5% for Bachmann, 4% for Paul and Pawlenty, and 3% for Haley Barbour.

Full results here


buddyglass said...

Any word when we're getting numbers for Democrats who responded to the Mississippi "interracial marriage" poll?

Anonymous said...

This poll is a lie! Ron Paul is easily the favorite, and the only candidate that could actually give Soetoro, if eligible, doubt it, a run for his mega corporate/Wall Street money! (you know, the money that was stolen from the tax payers, in the form of "bail-outs" for things like this) ...that is, unless Trump's investigators find the evidence, or lack thereof (in this case), that Soetoro is simply not eligible, which could possibly pole-vault Trump into a viable candidacy!

Dustin Ingalls said...

What brand of tinfoil do you use for your hat, VidTruth?

Anonymous said...

Gingrich should run for mayor of Wingnuttia

I Am Iron Man said...

VidTruth: And why do you think these things? Do you have any factual basis to back up your rantings?

I remember the Ron Paul thing in 2008 - Paul supporters claimed time and time again that the polls were vastly underestimating his popularity... and then the elections came around and it just wasn't the case.

Some of these people realized they had been foolish and came back to reality.

Others have gone completely off the deep end. They no longer have any relationship to the reality the rest of us live in.

I believe you are in this second category.

Anonymous said...

Gingrich is not weak in Georgia but he is coming second in his state GOP poll because there are two home candidates in the race. As your analysis revealed, if the other home cnadidate drops out, he Gingrich becaomes the front runner.

Robert said...

Take a look at VidTruth's profile and you'll see why he is disillusioned... When all you read is about the "illuminati conspiracy" instead of what is actually happening in this country, well you lose a few screws... Here's to reality: The GOP doesn't have a favorite because the favorite isn't running, the guy who wants to be the favorite can't shake an old policy akin to Obama.

Bob said...

Anonymous: Gingrich is extremely weak in his home state. In a hypothetical match up against Obama, he trails by one point. If he was in a relatively strong position, he'd be leading by double digits. The fact that the Republicans in Georgia do not have him as their first choice illustrates his weak position too.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Gingrich is not weak in Georgia but he is coming second in his state GOP poll because there are two home candidates in the race."

Very true, as noted in the press release, but he still is weak compared to Romney in MA or Thune (now not running) in SD.

Anonymous said...

Vid Truth: I am a Ron Paul supporter and even if everything you say is true, it does not help his chances of being elected by discussing them. Discuss the issues and Ron Paul's stance, not conspiracy theories.

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