Is extremism becoming mainstream in 21st century American politics?
Our latest national poll would seem to say yes- 35% voters in the country either think that Barack Obama was not born in the United States or that George W. Bush intentionally allowed the 9/11 attacks to occur so that we could go to war in the Middle East. A very troubled 2% of the population buys into both of those conspiracy theories.
It's hard to call a third of the country a fringe.
Only 59% of Americans say confidently that they think Barack Obama was born in the country while 23% think he was not, and 18% are unsure. Among Republicans there are more voters- 42%- who think he was born somewhere else than there are- 37%- who will say for sure that he was born here.
The far out sentiments aren't limited to the right though. 14% of Americans, including 25% of Democrats, think that George W. Bush let 9/11 happen to justify war, and 8% aren't sure.
When more than a third of the population either thinks that the current President doesn't legitimately hold the office or that a former President was attacking the country from within for political gain it shows a pretty remarkable lack of trust in our leaders.
We also took a look at the Anti-Christ question nationally and found that a pretty similar number of voters are willing to go so far as to hang that label on either Obama or Bush. 10% of voters say they think Obama is the Anti-Christ with 11% unsure and 8% say the same of Bush with an equal 11% unsure. Some opponents of Obama have pointed to biblical 'proof' to show that Obama is the Anti-Christ but the relatively equivalent number of Americans saying the same of Bush would seem to be an indication folks' saying that is more a way to express that they really don't like a politician than it is rooted in theology.
It's still remarkable that 16% of Americans will go so far as to declare one of the last two Presidents the 'Anti-Christ' with another 19% unsure about whether that label should apply to one or the other or both.
Strange times in American politics. Forget bipartisanship, it would be an accomplishment if we could just get to the point where excess partisans didn't think the opposite party's President was the Anti-Christ!
Full results here
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Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Obama hanging tight
For the second month in a row Barack Obama's approval rating is at 52% nationally. 44% of voters disapprove of the job he's doing.
81% of Democrats, 52% of independents, and 18% of Republicans give him good marks. While whites disapprove of him by a 50/45 margin, that's balanced out by his receiving approval from 89% of African Americans and 64% of Hispanics.
Obama has barely lost any support from people who voted for him last November. Only 5% now express disapproval of him while 93% think he's doing a good job. The percentage of McCain voters- 11%- who now approve of his work is greater than the proportion of his own voters Obama has lost. PPP numbers coming out tomorrow will show that Obama leads a quartet of possible 2012 opponents by margins equal to or greater than what he won last fall.
While Obama's overall approval numbers are flat compared to a month ago, support for him on health care is on the rise. In mid-August 47% of voters said they were opposed to his plan with just 40% in support. Now Americans are almost evenly divided with 46% opposed and 45% in support.
The primary movement in the last month has come with independents. They were arrayed 49/35 against it and now support it by a narrow 46/44 margin. It's interesting to note though that there hasn't been any increase in backing from Democrats, perhaps an indication that those who weren't standing with the President on the issue to begin with felt so strongly about it that a speech wasn't going to change their minds. Republicans continue to be more united in their opposition (81%) than Democrats are in their support (70%).
Full results here
81% of Democrats, 52% of independents, and 18% of Republicans give him good marks. While whites disapprove of him by a 50/45 margin, that's balanced out by his receiving approval from 89% of African Americans and 64% of Hispanics.
Obama has barely lost any support from people who voted for him last November. Only 5% now express disapproval of him while 93% think he's doing a good job. The percentage of McCain voters- 11%- who now approve of his work is greater than the proportion of his own voters Obama has lost. PPP numbers coming out tomorrow will show that Obama leads a quartet of possible 2012 opponents by margins equal to or greater than what he won last fall.
While Obama's overall approval numbers are flat compared to a month ago, support for him on health care is on the rise. In mid-August 47% of voters said they were opposed to his plan with just 40% in support. Now Americans are almost evenly divided with 46% opposed and 45% in support.
The primary movement in the last month has come with independents. They were arrayed 49/35 against it and now support it by a narrow 46/44 margin. It's interesting to note though that there hasn't been any increase in backing from Democrats, perhaps an indication that those who weren't standing with the President on the issue to begin with felt so strongly about it that a speech wasn't going to change their minds. Republicans continue to be more united in their opposition (81%) than Democrats are in their support (70%).
Full results here
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Coming Tomorrow
Tomorrow we'll have the first part of our national poll. Barack Obama's overall approval is basically unchanged from a month ago but voters are now basically split on his health care plan where a month ago they said they were opposed to it 52/40. The biggest movement has come among independents, who have shifted from -14 last month to +2 this month.
The poll also provides continuing confirmation that Obama isn't really losing the support of anyone who voted for him. His approval comes down at 93/5 with his 2008 voters. With it at 11/84 among McCain voters he's actually winning over slightly more people who didn't vote for him than he is losing ones who did.
We'll have his approval and health care numbers as well as our measurements of extremism in the American public tomorrow.
We'll also have Arizona Governor numbers. Democratic candidate Terry Goddard is more popular with Republicans than the incumbent GOP Governor Jan Brewer, whose approval within her own party is just 28%.
You'd know all this already if you were following us on Twitter.
The poll also provides continuing confirmation that Obama isn't really losing the support of anyone who voted for him. His approval comes down at 93/5 with his 2008 voters. With it at 11/84 among McCain voters he's actually winning over slightly more people who didn't vote for him than he is losing ones who did.
We'll have his approval and health care numbers as well as our measurements of extremism in the American public tomorrow.
We'll also have Arizona Governor numbers. Democratic candidate Terry Goddard is more popular with Republicans than the incumbent GOP Governor Jan Brewer, whose approval within her own party is just 28%.
You'd know all this already if you were following us on Twitter.
Approval Numbers and 2012
I recently had someone ask me if they thought Obama's approval numbers nationally were the same thing as his reelect numbers nationally. I said I suspected that was more or less the case but since I have two fresh 2012 polls in hand I can answer better from a data standpoint.
On the national poll we have coming out Thursday 94% of people who approve of Obama's job performance support him against Sarah Palin, 92% do against Jeb Bush, 90% do against Mitt Romney, and 89% do against Mike Huckabee.
Among those who disapprove of Obama's job performance 7% support him against Palin, 3% against Bush, and 2% against Huckabee and Romney.
Pretty similar story in Arizona. 92% of his approvers will vote for him against Palin, 90% against Huckabee, and 88% against Romney. Among his disapprovers it's 3% against Palin and only 1% against Huckabee and Romney.
Obama's RCP approval right now is 54%. With Pollster it's 51%. Just more evidence that he's more or less in the same place he was on election day.
On the national poll we have coming out Thursday 94% of people who approve of Obama's job performance support him against Sarah Palin, 92% do against Jeb Bush, 90% do against Mitt Romney, and 89% do against Mike Huckabee.
Among those who disapprove of Obama's job performance 7% support him against Palin, 3% against Bush, and 2% against Huckabee and Romney.
Pretty similar story in Arizona. 92% of his approvers will vote for him against Palin, 90% against Huckabee, and 88% against Romney. Among his disapprovers it's 3% against Palin and only 1% against Huckabee and Romney.
Obama's RCP approval right now is 54%. With Pollster it's 51%. Just more evidence that he's more or less in the same place he was on election day.
Democrats' Senior Problem
I talked pretty extensively with the Washington Times for a story they put out yesterday on how senior citizens are reacting to the health care battle and the overall impact that's having on the political landscape.
There are two issues for Democrats here, the biggest being that they're doing poorly with voters over 65 and the corollary being that those older voters make up a larger portion of the electorate in a midterm year than they do in a Presidential one.
We've polled in seven different states since mid-July and Barack Obama's approval rating with senior citizens is poor in all of them, ranging from a low of 37% to a high of 42%:
In a development that's probably related we find Democrats doing poorly with older voters in most of the 2010 races we've polled recently:
-In North Carolina Richard Burr leads the generic ballot overall by 7 points, while among seniors his margin is 14. Against six potential opponents he leads by 7-16 points with all voters, but by 10-22 with seniors.
-In Arkansas Blanche Lincoln trails Gilbert Baker and Curtis Coleman by 2 points and 1 respectively but with seniors those leads are 9 and 7 points for the Republicans.
-In Colorado Michael Bennet trailed Bob Beauprez by 3, led Ken Buck by 4, and had a 5 point advantage over Ryan Frazier. Among seniors he was down 10 points to Beauprez, 3 to Buck, and tied with Frazier. On the gubernatorial front Bill Ritter was down by 9 to Scott McInnis and tied with Josh Penry among all voters. With seniors it was a 17 point deficit to McInnis and a 6 point disadvantage against Penry.
-In Louisiana David Vitter led Charlie Melancon by 12 points overall and by 26 with voters over 65.
-On the generic Congressional ballot we found the GOP up 45-41 with all voters, buoyed largely by a 55-34 lead with senior citizens.
One thing to keep in mind with all of this is that seniors aren't a particularly good demographic for Democrats to begin with. Last year John McCain won them 53-45 nationally while losing by a pretty similar spread overall. But what makes it a bigger problem looking toward 2010 is that voters over 65 tend to make up a larger share of the electorate in midterms than they do in Presidential years, largely because they're more inclined to vote in all elections while younger voters and particularly those under 30 are more prone to only vote in the highest turnout ones. So they're a more powerful bloc next year than they were last year.
Seniors and independents are probably the two main groups Democrats are going to need to win over to hold their position next year. African Americans and young voters will be important too but that's more an issue of persuading them to turn out than persuading them to the party.
There are two issues for Democrats here, the biggest being that they're doing poorly with voters over 65 and the corollary being that those older voters make up a larger portion of the electorate in a midterm year than they do in a Presidential one.
We've polled in seven different states since mid-July and Barack Obama's approval rating with senior citizens is poor in all of them, ranging from a low of 37% to a high of 42%:
| State | Obama Approval w/Seniors |
| | 42 |
| | 42 |
| | 40 |
| | 40 |
| | 38 |
| | 37 |
| | 37 |
In a development that's probably related we find Democrats doing poorly with older voters in most of the 2010 races we've polled recently:
-In North Carolina Richard Burr leads the generic ballot overall by 7 points, while among seniors his margin is 14. Against six potential opponents he leads by 7-16 points with all voters, but by 10-22 with seniors.
-In Arkansas Blanche Lincoln trails Gilbert Baker and Curtis Coleman by 2 points and 1 respectively but with seniors those leads are 9 and 7 points for the Republicans.
-In Colorado Michael Bennet trailed Bob Beauprez by 3, led Ken Buck by 4, and had a 5 point advantage over Ryan Frazier. Among seniors he was down 10 points to Beauprez, 3 to Buck, and tied with Frazier. On the gubernatorial front Bill Ritter was down by 9 to Scott McInnis and tied with Josh Penry among all voters. With seniors it was a 17 point deficit to McInnis and a 6 point disadvantage against Penry.
-In Louisiana David Vitter led Charlie Melancon by 12 points overall and by 26 with voters over 65.
-On the generic Congressional ballot we found the GOP up 45-41 with all voters, buoyed largely by a 55-34 lead with senior citizens.
One thing to keep in mind with all of this is that seniors aren't a particularly good demographic for Democrats to begin with. Last year John McCain won them 53-45 nationally while losing by a pretty similar spread overall. But what makes it a bigger problem looking toward 2010 is that voters over 65 tend to make up a larger share of the electorate in midterms than they do in Presidential years, largely because they're more inclined to vote in all elections while younger voters and particularly those under 30 are more prone to only vote in the highest turnout ones. So they're a more powerful bloc next year than they were last year.
Seniors and independents are probably the two main groups Democrats are going to need to win over to hold their position next year. African Americans and young voters will be important too but that's more an issue of persuading them to turn out than persuading them to the party.
Mixed Reviews for Obama in Arizona
Arizonans are evenly divided on Barack Obama's job so far as President and if he had to stand for reelection today it looks like the state would probably remain in the red column.
47% of voters there give Obama good marks for his work so far and an equal 47% express disapproval. His reviews are predictably polarized along party lines with 80% of Democrats but only 17% of Republicans approving of him. Independents split positively 50/42 in his direction.
53% of whites disapprove of Obama but his 58% approval from Hispanics evens that out.
Support for Obama's health care plan lags behind his overall approval rating in the state, as it has everywhere PPP has polled in the last two months. 53% of voters are opposed to it with only 40% in favor.
There's been a lot of speculation given Obama's strong performances in Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico last year about whether Arizona would head to the Democratic column as well in 2012 without the President having to face native son John McCain. The answer at this very early stage is no. Obama trails Mitt Romney 50-43 in a hypothetical contest, is at a 49-45 disadvantage against Mike Huckabee, and is knotted up with Sarah Palin at 47.
In each of those contests Obama wins about 9-10% of the 2008 John McCain vote while holding on to 90-96% of his vote. His formula for victory in the state next time would be to push his McCain share to around 15% and continue the success he showed in 2008 for turning out new voters on his behalf.
Why isn't Arizona trending quite as blue as its neighbors? The first answer is that the Hispanic vote in the state is not as Democratic as it is in Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and California. Exit polls showed Obama winning 56% of their votes in Arizona last year and his approval with them now is 58%. He wins 55-57% of their vote in the hypothetical contests against Romney, Huckabee, and Palin. By comparison Obama averaged winning 70% of the Hispanic vote in the surrounding states that he took last fall.
The other reason is quite simply that Arizona is more Republican than those states. There are 16% more Democrats than Republicans in New Mexico, 12% more in California, 8% more in Nevada, and Colorado is split evenly. Arizona had 7% more Republicans than Democrats on election day and we find that number at 5% today. That means Obama has to win by a lot with independents and get a fair amount of crossover votes. But right now the Republicans are actually winning over more Democrats than Obama is their voters, and his leads among independents are slim.
So it's possible for Obama to take Arizona in 2012- but it's not going to be easy.
Full results here
47% of voters there give Obama good marks for his work so far and an equal 47% express disapproval. His reviews are predictably polarized along party lines with 80% of Democrats but only 17% of Republicans approving of him. Independents split positively 50/42 in his direction.
53% of whites disapprove of Obama but his 58% approval from Hispanics evens that out.
Support for Obama's health care plan lags behind his overall approval rating in the state, as it has everywhere PPP has polled in the last two months. 53% of voters are opposed to it with only 40% in favor.
There's been a lot of speculation given Obama's strong performances in Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico last year about whether Arizona would head to the Democratic column as well in 2012 without the President having to face native son John McCain. The answer at this very early stage is no. Obama trails Mitt Romney 50-43 in a hypothetical contest, is at a 49-45 disadvantage against Mike Huckabee, and is knotted up with Sarah Palin at 47.
In each of those contests Obama wins about 9-10% of the 2008 John McCain vote while holding on to 90-96% of his vote. His formula for victory in the state next time would be to push his McCain share to around 15% and continue the success he showed in 2008 for turning out new voters on his behalf.
Why isn't Arizona trending quite as blue as its neighbors? The first answer is that the Hispanic vote in the state is not as Democratic as it is in Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and California. Exit polls showed Obama winning 56% of their votes in Arizona last year and his approval with them now is 58%. He wins 55-57% of their vote in the hypothetical contests against Romney, Huckabee, and Palin. By comparison Obama averaged winning 70% of the Hispanic vote in the surrounding states that he took last fall.
The other reason is quite simply that Arizona is more Republican than those states. There are 16% more Democrats than Republicans in New Mexico, 12% more in California, 8% more in Nevada, and Colorado is split evenly. Arizona had 7% more Republicans than Democrats on election day and we find that number at 5% today. That means Obama has to win by a lot with independents and get a fair amount of crossover votes. But right now the Republicans are actually winning over more Democrats than Obama is their voters, and his leads among independents are slim.
So it's possible for Obama to take Arizona in 2012- but it's not going to be easy.
Full results here
Monday, September 21, 2009
Odds and Ends
-The big question on our Arizona poll tomorrow is whether Barack Obama is set up to win the state in 2012, and the answer as of today is no. He is winning 9-10% of the 2008 McCain vote against Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Sarah Palin but that's not quite enough.
-Two positive points for Obama from the poll though: only 3% of his 2008 voters disapprove of the job he's doing and independents are split 45-45 on his health care plan. That's the first poll we've done where indies weren't opposed. And he certainly doesn't seem to have a base problem in Arizona.
-Ty Harrell's resignation yesterday is good news for Democrats. With the problems he was having reelection next year looked close to impossible. It's still going to be a tough hold but if the right person gets appointed to take his place and they do a good job of making the best of their incumbency over the next year it will increase the chances of keeping it in Democratic hands. All other Democrats in swing districts with ethical clouds over their heads should take one for the team and go ahead and resign as well.
-Rush Limbaugh called me a 'huge liberal Democrat' on his show Friday. I'll take it as a compliment.
-Two positive points for Obama from the poll though: only 3% of his 2008 voters disapprove of the job he's doing and independents are split 45-45 on his health care plan. That's the first poll we've done where indies weren't opposed. And he certainly doesn't seem to have a base problem in Arizona.
-Ty Harrell's resignation yesterday is good news for Democrats. With the problems he was having reelection next year looked close to impossible. It's still going to be a tough hold but if the right person gets appointed to take his place and they do a good job of making the best of their incumbency over the next year it will increase the chances of keeping it in Democratic hands. All other Democrats in swing districts with ethical clouds over their heads should take one for the team and go ahead and resign as well.
-Rush Limbaugh called me a 'huge liberal Democrat' on his show Friday. I'll take it as a compliment.
The Obama Approval/Health Care Gap
The gap between Barack Obama's overall approval rating and support for him on health care is 7 points on the Arizona poll we're putting out tomorrow, an indication that opposition to the plan among his detractors continues to be stronger than favor for it among his supporters.
We've polled on health care eight times now and while that gap seems to have closed a little over the last six weeks it's still been there to the tune of at least five points on every statewide and national poll we've conducted during that period:
The health care debate's a good example of how it's easier to unite people in opposition to something than in support of it. With Republicans all on the same page they've easily won the message battle over Democrats who are comparatively all over the place.
We've polled on health care eight times now and while that gap seems to have closed a little over the last six weeks it's still been there to the tune of at least five points on every statewide and national poll we've conducted during that period:
| Date | State | Obama Approval | Health Care Support | Gap |
| 8-11 | NC | 46 | 39 | 7 |
| 8-19 | | 49 | 38 | 11 |
| 8-19 | National | 52 | 40 | 12 |
| 8-25 | | 40 | 29 | 11 |
| 9-2 | | 47 | 38 | 9 |
| 9-10 | | 45 | 40 | 5 |
| 9-16 | | 45 | 39 | 6 |
| 9-22 | | TBA | TBA | 7 |
The health care debate's a good example of how it's easier to unite people in opposition to something than in support of it. With Republicans all on the same page they've easily won the message battle over Democrats who are comparatively all over the place.
Taking Nominations
So after the latest on John Edwards came out Saturday afternoon I thought to myself that on our next North Carolina poll I might ask if people thought he was the worst person in the world.
I'm not going to do that but it actually did get me thinking of a good set of poll questions- who are you most proud and least proud to call a North Carolinian?
I'd like to narrow it down to about five choices on each front and put it on our next poll of the state, which will go into the field next weekend.
I think the 'proudest' category has to include Michael Jordan, Billy Graham, and Andy Griffith. The 'least proud' one definitely starts with Edwards. Who else should we throw in the mix on either count?
I'm not going to do that but it actually did get me thinking of a good set of poll questions- who are you most proud and least proud to call a North Carolinian?
I'd like to narrow it down to about five choices on each front and put it on our next poll of the state, which will go into the field next weekend.
I think the 'proudest' category has to include Michael Jordan, Billy Graham, and Andy Griffith. The 'least proud' one definitely starts with Edwards. Who else should we throw in the mix on either count?
Democratic struggles with independents continue
In late July I wrote a blog post about how the Republican candidate had been leading among independents in 13 of the last 16 individual 2009 and 2010 races we had polled.
That continues to be the case in 12 of the 17 contests we have looked at since then:
-Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine 48-29 in New Jersey
-Bob McDonnell leads Creigh Deeds 60-29 in Virginia
-Richard Burr leads a generic Democrat 46-24 in North Carolina and leads specific Democrats Cal Cunningham 42-16, Bob Etheridge 45-21, Kevin Foy 47-14, Kenneth Lewis 46-14, Elaine Marshall 45-15, and Dennis Wicker 46-16
-In Arkansas Blanche Lincoln trails Gilbert Baker 47-26, Curtis Coleman 46-25, and Tom Cotton 42-26. For Governor Mike Beebe does lead Allen Kerr 43-23.
-In Colorado things are more positive for Democrats. Bill Ritter does trail Scott McInnis 38-37, but he leads Josh Penry 37-32. And Michael Bennet led among indies against all comers- 38-36 over Bob Beauprez, 36-28 over Ken Buck, and 33-25 over Ryan Frazier.
Overall that's 25 of 33 contests since early June where we have found the GOP leading among independents. And when we took a look at the generic Congressional ballot at the end of last month Republicans were up 40-31 with independents.
Obviously this is somewhere Democrats are going to have to improve a lot to keep next year from being a disaster. If they're losing independents, especially by these kinds of margins, it means they need to get Democratic voters to the polls at a much higher rate than Republican voters and that doesn't seem particularly likely right now. The GOP is just more enthusiastic about getting out there and taking some of their power back. But it's a heck of a long way until November 2010 still.
That continues to be the case in 12 of the 17 contests we have looked at since then:
-Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine 48-29 in New Jersey
-Bob McDonnell leads Creigh Deeds 60-29 in Virginia
-Richard Burr leads a generic Democrat 46-24 in North Carolina and leads specific Democrats Cal Cunningham 42-16, Bob Etheridge 45-21, Kevin Foy 47-14, Kenneth Lewis 46-14, Elaine Marshall 45-15, and Dennis Wicker 46-16
-In Arkansas Blanche Lincoln trails Gilbert Baker 47-26, Curtis Coleman 46-25, and Tom Cotton 42-26. For Governor Mike Beebe does lead Allen Kerr 43-23.
-In Colorado things are more positive for Democrats. Bill Ritter does trail Scott McInnis 38-37, but he leads Josh Penry 37-32. And Michael Bennet led among indies against all comers- 38-36 over Bob Beauprez, 36-28 over Ken Buck, and 33-25 over Ryan Frazier.
Overall that's 25 of 33 contests since early June where we have found the GOP leading among independents. And when we took a look at the generic Congressional ballot at the end of last month Republicans were up 40-31 with independents.
Obviously this is somewhere Democrats are going to have to improve a lot to keep next year from being a disaster. If they're losing independents, especially by these kinds of margins, it means they need to get Democratic voters to the polls at a much higher rate than Republican voters and that doesn't seem particularly likely right now. The GOP is just more enthusiastic about getting out there and taking some of their power back. But it's a heck of a long way until November 2010 still.
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