There's been a lot of coverage of Donald Trump's good poll numbers with Republicans over the last week- what's gotten less attention is that Trump's popularity with GOP voters is a brand new development.
We did a national poll asking about Trump just two months ago in mid-February and found that only 31% of Republicans had a favorable opinion of him to 53% with a negative one. Fast forward seven weeks and our latest national poll for Daily Kos found that Trump's favorability with GOP voters is now a positive 40/33 spread. That represents a 29 point increase in his net favorability over just a very short period of time.
The strength Trump is showing in horse race polls is a less function of Republicans admiring him due to his being a prominent successful businessman for decades and much more a positive reaction to all his far right rhetoric just in the last few months.
Interestingly Trump has achieved these higher numbers with Republicans without really seeing his numbers get any worse with Democrats or independents- although his numbers with both of those voter groups certainly are quite bad. In February his favorability spread with Democrats was -40 at 21/61 and now it's basically unchanged at -41 (18/59). It's a similar story with independents- he was at -22 (30/52) in February and he's still at -22 (25/47) although the 10% increase in his 'not sures' suggest some people just don't know what to think of his current foray into politics.
Trump's the only prominent Republican considering the race whose numbers have gone in the right direction with the party base of late. Comparing their April 2009 numbers to their March 2011 numbers Mike Huckabee's favorability is down a net 7 points with Republicans, Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin are down a net 18 points each, and Newt Gingrich is down a net 25 points. The declining popularity of the GOP frontrunners with their base is a clear sign that Republican voters are looking for a different face and for now Trump's filling that role.
Thursday, April 7, 2011
NH looking better for Lynch
It's not clear if New Hampshire Governor John Lynch will seek a fifth term as Governor next year, but if he does it looks like he'll have a much easier time of it than he did in 2010. Lynch's approval rating is up to a 58/33 spread, making him one of the most popular Governors in the country in PPP's polling, and he leads 4 different Republicans we tested against him by margins ranging from 18 to 28 points.
The most telling finding in the poll in showing how much things have shifted back toward the Democrats in the state over the last five months is that Lynch leads John Stephen 57-29 in a hypothetical rematch of their contest last fall, even though Lynch defeated Stephen by only an 8 point margin at 53-45.
The strong Republican year in New Hampshire was driven more than anything else by the fact that those who turned out to vote supported John McCain by a 4 point margin in 2008, in contrast to Barack Obama's actual 10 point victory in the state. Democratic voters stayed home in droves last year but now they're beginning to be reenergized and although places like the Granite State may not be as Democratic as they were in 2008 next year they're likely to be a lot closer to that than how they voted in 2010.
Former Senator John E. Sununu polls the closest to Lynch but still trails by 18 points at 54-36. Former Congressman Jeb Bradley and near Senate nomination winner Ovide Lamontagne trail by identical 24 point margins at 57-33.
There's a lot of speculation that Lynch may retire after this term. For space reasons we didn't test other Democrats for Governor on this poll but one thing that does bode well for the party's prospects of holding this office even if Lynch retires is the favorability numbers of the Republicans. They're all unpopular with Bradley and Lamontagne having the 'best' favorability spreads at 29/35, followed by Sununu at 33/46, and Stephen at 22/36. The GOP may need to look in a different direction than these potential candidates to have their best chance at winning even in an open seat situation.
These numbers are certainly good news for Jeanne Shaheen in regards to the possibility of a grudge match with Sununu is 2014 as well. Her victory in 2008 may have been a reflection not just of the Obama wave but also of voters just not being that into Sununu.
Full results here
The most telling finding in the poll in showing how much things have shifted back toward the Democrats in the state over the last five months is that Lynch leads John Stephen 57-29 in a hypothetical rematch of their contest last fall, even though Lynch defeated Stephen by only an 8 point margin at 53-45.
The strong Republican year in New Hampshire was driven more than anything else by the fact that those who turned out to vote supported John McCain by a 4 point margin in 2008, in contrast to Barack Obama's actual 10 point victory in the state. Democratic voters stayed home in droves last year but now they're beginning to be reenergized and although places like the Granite State may not be as Democratic as they were in 2008 next year they're likely to be a lot closer to that than how they voted in 2010.
Former Senator John E. Sununu polls the closest to Lynch but still trails by 18 points at 54-36. Former Congressman Jeb Bradley and near Senate nomination winner Ovide Lamontagne trail by identical 24 point margins at 57-33.
There's a lot of speculation that Lynch may retire after this term. For space reasons we didn't test other Democrats for Governor on this poll but one thing that does bode well for the party's prospects of holding this office even if Lynch retires is the favorability numbers of the Republicans. They're all unpopular with Bradley and Lamontagne having the 'best' favorability spreads at 29/35, followed by Sununu at 33/46, and Stephen at 22/36. The GOP may need to look in a different direction than these potential candidates to have their best chance at winning even in an open seat situation.
These numbers are certainly good news for Jeanne Shaheen in regards to the possibility of a grudge match with Sununu is 2014 as well. Her victory in 2008 may have been a reflection not just of the Obama wave but also of voters just not being that into Sununu.
Full results here
Barbour, Bryant lead in Mississippi
Mississippi Republicans want Haley Barbour to be their nominee for President next year, and he's doing far better in his home state than most of the other Republicans looking at the race are doing in theirs. 37% say Barbour is their first choice, followed by 19% for Mike Huckabee, 10% for Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin, 6% for Mitt Romney, 5% for Michele Bachmann, 3% for Tim Pawlenty, and 2% for Ron Paul.
The only Republican we've found doing better in their home state so far is Romney, who 47% of Massachusetts GOP voters want as their nominee. Also matching Barbour's 37% was John Thune in South Dakota before he decided not to run. After that it's Paul Ryan at 30% in Wisconsin, Tim Pawlenty at 24% in Minnesota, Jim DeMint at 24% in South Carolina, Sarah Palin at 15% in Alaska, Gary Johnson at 13% in New Mexico, Rick Santorum at 11% in Pennsylvania, and Rick Perry at 9% in Texas. So on the curve Mississippi Republicans, who give Barbour an 85% approval rating, are pretty excited about their home state candidate.
Should Barbour end up not running or not making it all the way to the Mississippi primary Huckabee is the clear favorite in the state. In a Barbour less field he gets 35% to 20% for Palin, 18% for Gingrich, 8% for Romney, 5% for Bachmann, 4% for Paul, and 3% for Pawlenty.
We asked voters on this poll whether they think interracial marriage should be legal or illegal- 46% of Mississippi Republicans said it should be illegal to just 40% who think it should be legal. For the most part there aren't any huge divides in how voters view the candidates or who they support for the nomination based on their attitudes about interracial marriage but there are a few exceptions.
Palin's net favorability with folks who think interracial marriage should be illegal (+55 at 74/19) is 17 points higher than it is with folks who think interracial marriage should be legal (+38 at 64/26.) Meanwhile Romney's favorability numbers see the opposite trend. He's at +23 (53/30) with voters who think interracial marriage should be legal but 19 points worse at +4 (44/40) with those who think it should be illegal. Tells you something about the kinds of folks who like each of those candidates.
Lest there was any doubt Phil Bryant is the overwhelming favorite to be the GOP nominee for Governor. 63% of voters say they'd vote for him if the primary was today to 14% for Dave Dennis, 2% for Hudson Holliday, 1% for James Broadwater, and 0% for Ron Williams. Perhaps Broadwater needs Borat to come back to the state and go door to door telling voters about his, um, attributes.
72% of Republicans think that Roger Wicker is ideologically 'about right' to only 9% who think he's too liberal. Nevertheless in a hypothetical primary contest between him and a generic 'more conservative' alternative he leads by only a 40-39 margin. It just goes to show once again that no matter how conservative you are, for the Republican base it's almost impossible to be conservative enough. Still it's hard to imagine taking out Wicker becoming much of a Tea Party priority.
Full results here
The only Republican we've found doing better in their home state so far is Romney, who 47% of Massachusetts GOP voters want as their nominee. Also matching Barbour's 37% was John Thune in South Dakota before he decided not to run. After that it's Paul Ryan at 30% in Wisconsin, Tim Pawlenty at 24% in Minnesota, Jim DeMint at 24% in South Carolina, Sarah Palin at 15% in Alaska, Gary Johnson at 13% in New Mexico, Rick Santorum at 11% in Pennsylvania, and Rick Perry at 9% in Texas. So on the curve Mississippi Republicans, who give Barbour an 85% approval rating, are pretty excited about their home state candidate.
Should Barbour end up not running or not making it all the way to the Mississippi primary Huckabee is the clear favorite in the state. In a Barbour less field he gets 35% to 20% for Palin, 18% for Gingrich, 8% for Romney, 5% for Bachmann, 4% for Paul, and 3% for Pawlenty.
We asked voters on this poll whether they think interracial marriage should be legal or illegal- 46% of Mississippi Republicans said it should be illegal to just 40% who think it should be legal. For the most part there aren't any huge divides in how voters view the candidates or who they support for the nomination based on their attitudes about interracial marriage but there are a few exceptions.
Palin's net favorability with folks who think interracial marriage should be illegal (+55 at 74/19) is 17 points higher than it is with folks who think interracial marriage should be legal (+38 at 64/26.) Meanwhile Romney's favorability numbers see the opposite trend. He's at +23 (53/30) with voters who think interracial marriage should be legal but 19 points worse at +4 (44/40) with those who think it should be illegal. Tells you something about the kinds of folks who like each of those candidates.
Lest there was any doubt Phil Bryant is the overwhelming favorite to be the GOP nominee for Governor. 63% of voters say they'd vote for him if the primary was today to 14% for Dave Dennis, 2% for Hudson Holliday, 1% for James Broadwater, and 0% for Ron Williams. Perhaps Broadwater needs Borat to come back to the state and go door to door telling voters about his, um, attributes.
72% of Republicans think that Roger Wicker is ideologically 'about right' to only 9% who think he's too liberal. Nevertheless in a hypothetical primary contest between him and a generic 'more conservative' alternative he leads by only a 40-39 margin. It just goes to show once again that no matter how conservative you are, for the Republican base it's almost impossible to be conservative enough. Still it's hard to imagine taking out Wicker becoming much of a Tea Party priority.
Full results here
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Roger Wicker in Solid Shape
Democrats may have lost their last, best chance to take out Roger Wicker when Ronnie Musgrove came up short against him in 2008. Wicker now has some of the best approval numbers of anyone in the Senate and leads basically every big name Democrat left in Mississippi by double digits in hypothetical contests for reelection.
51% of voters approve of the job Wicker's doing to a paltry 23% who disapprove. That's the lowest level of disapproval we've ever found for an elected Senator with the exception of Ohio freshman Rob Portman who only has a 22% disapproval but also has 53% of voters with no opinion about him just a few months into his tenure. Wicker's 73/10 approval with Republicans is not in any way unusual but his plurality approval from Democrats at 33/29 certainly is. And he's on solid ground with independents as well at 46/36.
We tested five potential Democratic opponents- none of whom have really shown any interest- against Wicker. Former Attorney General Mike Moore did 'best,' trailing by 10 points at 48-38. Former Congressman Gene Taylor trails by 12 at 48-36, current Attorney General Jim Hood trails by 14 at 50-36, former Governor and 2008 candidate Ronnie Musgrove trails by 17 at 52-35, and former Congressman Travis Childers trails by 18 at 51-33.
It's interesting that Musgrove fares so much worse now than his 2008 performance, when he lost by 10 points. He has negative favorability numbers at 37/40, which are worse than Hood's (43/26), Moore's (39/23), and Taylor's (27/26). I don't know enough about Mississippi politics to know whether Musgrove's unpopularity was something in place in 2008 or if he's become more unpopular since that campaign but it makes you wonder whether Democrats might have had a better chance with a different candidate in 2008, even if Musgrove as a former Governor seemed like the best option on paper. It's water under the bridge now.
Nobody's talking about this as a competitive seat for 2012 and with Wicker's numbers you can see why.
Full results here
51% of voters approve of the job Wicker's doing to a paltry 23% who disapprove. That's the lowest level of disapproval we've ever found for an elected Senator with the exception of Ohio freshman Rob Portman who only has a 22% disapproval but also has 53% of voters with no opinion about him just a few months into his tenure. Wicker's 73/10 approval with Republicans is not in any way unusual but his plurality approval from Democrats at 33/29 certainly is. And he's on solid ground with independents as well at 46/36.
We tested five potential Democratic opponents- none of whom have really shown any interest- against Wicker. Former Attorney General Mike Moore did 'best,' trailing by 10 points at 48-38. Former Congressman Gene Taylor trails by 12 at 48-36, current Attorney General Jim Hood trails by 14 at 50-36, former Governor and 2008 candidate Ronnie Musgrove trails by 17 at 52-35, and former Congressman Travis Childers trails by 18 at 51-33.
It's interesting that Musgrove fares so much worse now than his 2008 performance, when he lost by 10 points. He has negative favorability numbers at 37/40, which are worse than Hood's (43/26), Moore's (39/23), and Taylor's (27/26). I don't know enough about Mississippi politics to know whether Musgrove's unpopularity was something in place in 2008 or if he's become more unpopular since that campaign but it makes you wonder whether Democrats might have had a better chance with a different candidate in 2008, even if Musgrove as a former Governor seemed like the best option on paper. It's water under the bridge now.
Nobody's talking about this as a competitive seat for 2012 and with Wicker's numbers you can see why.
Full results here
Voting and Suggestions...
Pennsylvania was the winner of our vote on where to poll next week. Two areas for suggestions:
-Who would you like to see us test against Bob Casey?
-Besides doing our standard President and Senate questions and asking how folks are feeling about Tom Corbett so far, is there anything else you'd like us to ask in Pennsylvania?
And the choices for the bonus Republican on our national poll are Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, and Rand Paul. Voting on that will be open until tomorrow. We didn't include Donald Trump as an option because we already polled on him nationally this week for Daily Kos- you can check out those Trump numbers here.
We also appreciate good ideas for national poll questions that other pollsters probably wouldn't ask- kind of like the Charlie Sheen vs. Barack Obama and Sarah Palin poll last month- sure stuff like that is silly but judging by our web traffic it brought thousands of people 15 seconds of amusement and I don't think there's anything wrong with a polling company doing that here and there.
-Who would you like to see us test against Bob Casey?
-Besides doing our standard President and Senate questions and asking how folks are feeling about Tom Corbett so far, is there anything else you'd like us to ask in Pennsylvania?
And the choices for the bonus Republican on our national poll are Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, and Rand Paul. Voting on that will be open until tomorrow. We didn't include Donald Trump as an option because we already polled on him nationally this week for Daily Kos- you can check out those Trump numbers here.
We also appreciate good ideas for national poll questions that other pollsters probably wouldn't ask- kind of like the Charlie Sheen vs. Barack Obama and Sarah Palin poll last month- sure stuff like that is silly but judging by our web traffic it brought thousands of people 15 seconds of amusement and I don't think there's anything wrong with a polling company doing that here and there.
Georgia Miscellaneous
-You can add Georgia to the list of states where voters say they might elect a Democratic Governor instead of the Republican they chose last fall if they could do it over again- Roy Barnes leads Nathan Deal 46-45 in a hypothetical rematch.
The interesting thing in this instance is that in contrast to Scott Walker, John Kasich, Rick Snyder, and Rick Scott Deal is actually not suffering from a high level of unpopularity. Voters are more ambivalent toward him than anything else- 35% approve of the job he's doing, 31% disapprove, and 34% have no opinion.
The fact that a rematch would be a toss up is less a reflection of voters being disgusted with Deal than it is a reminder that Democratic voters were asleep at the wheel last fall. The party id breakdown on our poll is 39% Democratic and 40% Republican, reflecting a slightly more GOP friendly electorate than what the exit poll for the state in 2008 found, which was 38% Democrats and 35% Republicans. There was no exit poll for Georgia last year but Survey USA's final poll on the race was accurate and they found an electorate consisting of 42% Republicans and just 34% Democrats. Presidential year electorate and Barnes probably beats Deal- but in the midterm Democrats stayed home in large numbers and if they're unhappy about Governor Deal, well, they did it to themselves.
-We polled on a trio of prominent Georgia politicians past and found all of them decently popular. Sam Nunn came out with a +29 favorability spread (47/18), followed by Zell Miller at +23 (47/24), and Max Cleland at +8 (38/30). 35% of voters with no opinion about Nunn, 29% with no opinion about Miller, and 32% with no opinion about Cleland is a reminder of how much Georgia's population is changing- there's just a huge chunk of voters who never lived in the state when any of those guys were in office.
Nunn's poll numbers are interesting when broken down by party. Independents actually have the highest opinion of him at a 53/8 spread, followed by Republicans at a 49/17 spread, and his own Democrats at a 40/24 spread. It's not often you see a Democratic politician more popular with Republicans than Democrats and given the general ambivalence of independents toward all politicians it's even more surprising to see that his greatest level of popularity is with them.
It's not at all surprising that Miller's highest level of popularity is with Republicans at a 58/15 breakdown (that makes him more popular with GOP voters than Deal, Senator Saxby Chambliss, or former Governor Sonny Perdue.) What might be more surprising is that a plurality of Democrats still like Miller at 37% with a favorable opinion of him to 35% with a negative one. Evidently his tenure as Governor is still outweighing what he's done since in many Democrats' minds.
-Speaking of Perdue voters don't reflect very positively on his tenure as Governor. Only 38% express approval for the work he did over the course of his eight years in office, compared to 46% who disapprove. What's interesting about Perdue's numbers is that they're unusually good with Democrats- 29% of them say they think he did a good job to 58% who dissent when we tend to see Governors well below 20% with voters of the opposite party. What's really dragging down Perdue's numbers is how Republicans rate him- just 48% think he did a good job as Governor while 35% disagree. It's their lack of enthusiasm for his work that has the state's voters overall looking back on him in a negative light.
-There's a clear winner in the popularity derby for the state's Senate delegation. Johnny Isakson has a 44% approval rating with only 29% of voters disapproving of him while Chambliss' approval is only 38% with 33% of voters expressing disapproval of him. Both Senators' numbers are on the rise since we last polled Georgia in February of 2010. Isakson's up a net 17 points from his 36/38 standing at that time and Chambliss is up a net 10. Clearly Isakson made a good impression as he reintroduced himself to voters over the course of his reelection bid.
-And finally 56% of voters think it's time to legalize Sunday alcohol sales in the state to 38% who are opposed. The most interesting thing on these numbers might be the lack of disparity across party lines- majorities of independents (60%), Republicans (57%), and Democrats (53%) favor the state making that move into the 21st century.
Full results here
The interesting thing in this instance is that in contrast to Scott Walker, John Kasich, Rick Snyder, and Rick Scott Deal is actually not suffering from a high level of unpopularity. Voters are more ambivalent toward him than anything else- 35% approve of the job he's doing, 31% disapprove, and 34% have no opinion.
The fact that a rematch would be a toss up is less a reflection of voters being disgusted with Deal than it is a reminder that Democratic voters were asleep at the wheel last fall. The party id breakdown on our poll is 39% Democratic and 40% Republican, reflecting a slightly more GOP friendly electorate than what the exit poll for the state in 2008 found, which was 38% Democrats and 35% Republicans. There was no exit poll for Georgia last year but Survey USA's final poll on the race was accurate and they found an electorate consisting of 42% Republicans and just 34% Democrats. Presidential year electorate and Barnes probably beats Deal- but in the midterm Democrats stayed home in large numbers and if they're unhappy about Governor Deal, well, they did it to themselves.
-We polled on a trio of prominent Georgia politicians past and found all of them decently popular. Sam Nunn came out with a +29 favorability spread (47/18), followed by Zell Miller at +23 (47/24), and Max Cleland at +8 (38/30). 35% of voters with no opinion about Nunn, 29% with no opinion about Miller, and 32% with no opinion about Cleland is a reminder of how much Georgia's population is changing- there's just a huge chunk of voters who never lived in the state when any of those guys were in office.
Nunn's poll numbers are interesting when broken down by party. Independents actually have the highest opinion of him at a 53/8 spread, followed by Republicans at a 49/17 spread, and his own Democrats at a 40/24 spread. It's not often you see a Democratic politician more popular with Republicans than Democrats and given the general ambivalence of independents toward all politicians it's even more surprising to see that his greatest level of popularity is with them.
It's not at all surprising that Miller's highest level of popularity is with Republicans at a 58/15 breakdown (that makes him more popular with GOP voters than Deal, Senator Saxby Chambliss, or former Governor Sonny Perdue.) What might be more surprising is that a plurality of Democrats still like Miller at 37% with a favorable opinion of him to 35% with a negative one. Evidently his tenure as Governor is still outweighing what he's done since in many Democrats' minds.
-Speaking of Perdue voters don't reflect very positively on his tenure as Governor. Only 38% express approval for the work he did over the course of his eight years in office, compared to 46% who disapprove. What's interesting about Perdue's numbers is that they're unusually good with Democrats- 29% of them say they think he did a good job to 58% who dissent when we tend to see Governors well below 20% with voters of the opposite party. What's really dragging down Perdue's numbers is how Republicans rate him- just 48% think he did a good job as Governor while 35% disagree. It's their lack of enthusiasm for his work that has the state's voters overall looking back on him in a negative light.
-There's a clear winner in the popularity derby for the state's Senate delegation. Johnny Isakson has a 44% approval rating with only 29% of voters disapproving of him while Chambliss' approval is only 38% with 33% of voters expressing disapproval of him. Both Senators' numbers are on the rise since we last polled Georgia in February of 2010. Isakson's up a net 17 points from his 36/38 standing at that time and Chambliss is up a net 10. Clearly Isakson made a good impression as he reintroduced himself to voters over the course of his reelection bid.
-And finally 56% of voters think it's time to legalize Sunday alcohol sales in the state to 38% who are opposed. The most interesting thing on these numbers might be the lack of disparity across party lines- majorities of independents (60%), Republicans (57%), and Democrats (53%) favor the state making that move into the 21st century.
Full results here
Only Romney would make NH competitive
Despite middling approval ratings it appears Barack Obama will win New Hampshire easily next year...unless the Republican nominee is Mitt Romney.
New Hampshire voters are evenly divided on Obama with 46% approving and 46% disapproving. He's on slightly positive ground with independents at 46/43, but Republicans (86%) are more united in their disapproval of the President than Democrats (76%) are in their approval and that's what leaves him at an even split overall.
In spite of his relatively weak personal numbers Obama blasts most of the leading GOP candidates in the state by even wider margins than the 10 point win he earned against John McCain in 2008. He leads Newt Gingrich by 13 points at 52-39, Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee each by 14 points at 51-37 and 52-38 respectively, and Sarah Palin by a whooping 22 points at 56-34. That makes New Hampshire another of Palin's 'Goldwater' states- her deficit there would be the largest for a Republican candidate since 1964 when Lyndon Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater by 27 points.
The reason Obama leads by so much despite voters ambivalence about him is that New Hampshire voters simply hate most of the potential Republican candidates. Huckabee's favorability is 29/52 and besides him the rest of the folks have unfavorable numbers at the 60% level or even higher- 27/60 for Trump, 24/62 for Gingrich, and 28/67 for Palin.
So Obama could be headed for another big victory in New Hampshire...but if the GOP nominated Mitt Romney it would be a completely different story. A slight plurality of voters have a favorable opinion of him- 45% to 44% with a negative one, and Obama leads him by only a 47-46 margin.
The New Hampshire numbers are quite reminiscent of a poll we did in Nevada earlier this year that found a Romney nomination would result in a toss up situation in the state but that the GOP nominating anyone else would hand Obama an easy victory. The Republican nominee will have to win these kinds of states to be successful in 2012 but whether the party base will be open to sacrificing some ideological purity to put forward a candidate who can win in the New Hampshires and Nevadas of the world remains to be seen.
Full results here
New Hampshire voters are evenly divided on Obama with 46% approving and 46% disapproving. He's on slightly positive ground with independents at 46/43, but Republicans (86%) are more united in their disapproval of the President than Democrats (76%) are in their approval and that's what leaves him at an even split overall.
In spite of his relatively weak personal numbers Obama blasts most of the leading GOP candidates in the state by even wider margins than the 10 point win he earned against John McCain in 2008. He leads Newt Gingrich by 13 points at 52-39, Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee each by 14 points at 51-37 and 52-38 respectively, and Sarah Palin by a whooping 22 points at 56-34. That makes New Hampshire another of Palin's 'Goldwater' states- her deficit there would be the largest for a Republican candidate since 1964 when Lyndon Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater by 27 points.
The reason Obama leads by so much despite voters ambivalence about him is that New Hampshire voters simply hate most of the potential Republican candidates. Huckabee's favorability is 29/52 and besides him the rest of the folks have unfavorable numbers at the 60% level or even higher- 27/60 for Trump, 24/62 for Gingrich, and 28/67 for Palin.
So Obama could be headed for another big victory in New Hampshire...but if the GOP nominated Mitt Romney it would be a completely different story. A slight plurality of voters have a favorable opinion of him- 45% to 44% with a negative one, and Obama leads him by only a 47-46 margin.
The New Hampshire numbers are quite reminiscent of a poll we did in Nevada earlier this year that found a Romney nomination would result in a toss up situation in the state but that the GOP nominating anyone else would hand Obama an easy victory. The Republican nominee will have to win these kinds of states to be successful in 2012 but whether the party base will be open to sacrificing some ideological purity to put forward a candidate who can win in the New Hampshires and Nevadas of the world remains to be seen.
Full results here
Boehner falling out of favor
It hasn't taken John Boehner long to fall out of favor with the American public. His national approval rating has dropped a net 18 points already since the beginning of January. At the outset of the year 35% of voters approved of the job he was doing to 28% who disapproved and 37% who were reserving judgment. Now his approval has declined 10 points to 25% and his disapproval has risen 8 points to 36%.
What's most interesting about Boehner's fall is that you can't pin it to a single voter group- he's down a good deal with everyone. He is, as has been speculated, having trouble with the base. 56% of Republicans gave him good marks at the start of the year but now less than half of them do at 45%. He was on narrowly positive ground with independents in January at 34/30 but now he's in negative territory at 21/34, reflective of the national trend back away from the GOP with independents after a good year for Republicans with them in 2010. And where Democrats were willing to give Boehner a chance starting out- only 39% disapproved of him- that number is now up to 53%.
What might be most remarkable about Boehner's numbers is that Nancy Pelosi now has a higher approval rating than him- 30% to his 25%. Pelosi's disapproval is still a whole lot higher too- 53% to Boehner's 36%- but for as much as Pelosi has been maligned it's interesting to see that there are more voters who like her than her successor.
What's most interesting about Boehner's fall is that you can't pin it to a single voter group- he's down a good deal with everyone. He is, as has been speculated, having trouble with the base. 56% of Republicans gave him good marks at the start of the year but now less than half of them do at 45%. He was on narrowly positive ground with independents in January at 34/30 but now he's in negative territory at 21/34, reflective of the national trend back away from the GOP with independents after a good year for Republicans with them in 2010. And where Democrats were willing to give Boehner a chance starting out- only 39% disapproved of him- that number is now up to 53%.
What might be most remarkable about Boehner's numbers is that Nancy Pelosi now has a higher approval rating than him- 30% to his 25%. Pelosi's disapproval is still a whole lot higher too- 53% to Boehner's 36%- but for as much as Pelosi has been maligned it's interesting to see that there are more voters who like her than her successor.
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
GOP Senate field in Florida mostly unknown
Florida Republicans really have no clue who any of their potential Senate candidates are at this point. Of the three who have shown the most interest to date Mike Haridopolos 'leads' the way in name recognition with 32% of voters expressing an opinion about him- 16% positive and 16% negative. George LeMieux's second with 26% of voters able to rate him- 15% favorable and 11% unfavorable. Adam Hasner only has 15% of GOP primary voters who can take a stand on him and they break down 5% positive and 10% negative.
Unfortunately Connie Mack IV announced he wasn't going to run during the middle of our field period. But even with him in the mix we found 41% of Republicans had no opinion yet on who their nominee should be. 28% picked Mack, 14% went for LeMieux, 13% for Haridopolos, and 4% for Hasner. The bottom line on the Republican field at this point appears to be LeMieux and Haridopolos basically as co-favorites with Hasner a step behind- but more than anything else it's wide open and there's plenty of room for someone else to come in and win the nomination.
Full results here
Unfortunately Connie Mack IV announced he wasn't going to run during the middle of our field period. But even with him in the mix we found 41% of Republicans had no opinion yet on who their nominee should be. 28% picked Mack, 14% went for LeMieux, 13% for Haridopolos, and 4% for Hasner. The bottom line on the Republican field at this point appears to be LeMieux and Haridopolos basically as co-favorites with Hasner a step behind- but more than anything else it's wide open and there's plenty of room for someone else to come in and win the nomination.
Full results here
No GOP favorite in Florida
Mitt Romney's generally seen as the front runner to win the pivotal Republican primary for President in Florida but our latest poll in the state finds the contest there completely up in the air.
There's a three way tie at the top with 18% of primary voters listing each of Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Newt Gingrich as their first choice for President. Sarah Palin gets 15%, followed by Michele Bachmann at 7%, Ron Paul and Tim Pawlenty at 6%, and Haley Barbour at 3%.
In 2008 Romney received 31% of the vote in the Florida primary so his support has fallen quite a bit since then, consistent with what we're finding for him across the country. Huckabee, on the other hand, is seeing a rise in his standing from the 13% he got in the state last time.
The reason Romney isn't really proving to be the favorite in Florida is a lack of support from voters describing themselves as 'very conservative,' who at 40% constitute the largest share of the primary electorate in the state. Romney's favorability with them is only 59%, placing him well behind Huckabee's 81%, Gingrich's 73%, Palin's 71%, and even Ron Paul's 60%. Only 12% of those voters say he's their choice for the nomination, putting him firmly in fourth place.
We also tested some alternative iterations of the Republican field but in only one do voters give a lot of clarity about who they'd pick as their nominee. Testing a scenario in which Huckabee chose not to run, Gingrich leads Romney 24-23 with Palin at 19%. Testing a scenario in which Palin chose not to run, Huckabee leads with 24% to 22% for both Romney and Gingrich. In a scenario where both Huckabee and Palin sat the race out, Gingrich leads with 30% to 28% for Romney, 11% for Bachmann, and 10% for Pawlenty. Throwing Rudy Giuliani in the mix as a potential candidate you get basically a four way tie at the top with Huckabee, Gingrich, and Romney at 17%, Giuliani at 16%, and Palin at 11%.
The one version of the Republican primary where we did find someone with a clear lead was when Jeb Bush was included as a possible candidate. 30% of voters said they would pick him with Gingrich, Huckabee, and Romney all at 14% and no one else hitting double digits.
There is no early front runner in Florida- these numbers show that the state is completely up for grabs.
Full results here
There's a three way tie at the top with 18% of primary voters listing each of Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Newt Gingrich as their first choice for President. Sarah Palin gets 15%, followed by Michele Bachmann at 7%, Ron Paul and Tim Pawlenty at 6%, and Haley Barbour at 3%.
In 2008 Romney received 31% of the vote in the Florida primary so his support has fallen quite a bit since then, consistent with what we're finding for him across the country. Huckabee, on the other hand, is seeing a rise in his standing from the 13% he got in the state last time.
The reason Romney isn't really proving to be the favorite in Florida is a lack of support from voters describing themselves as 'very conservative,' who at 40% constitute the largest share of the primary electorate in the state. Romney's favorability with them is only 59%, placing him well behind Huckabee's 81%, Gingrich's 73%, Palin's 71%, and even Ron Paul's 60%. Only 12% of those voters say he's their choice for the nomination, putting him firmly in fourth place.
We also tested some alternative iterations of the Republican field but in only one do voters give a lot of clarity about who they'd pick as their nominee. Testing a scenario in which Huckabee chose not to run, Gingrich leads Romney 24-23 with Palin at 19%. Testing a scenario in which Palin chose not to run, Huckabee leads with 24% to 22% for both Romney and Gingrich. In a scenario where both Huckabee and Palin sat the race out, Gingrich leads with 30% to 28% for Romney, 11% for Bachmann, and 10% for Pawlenty. Throwing Rudy Giuliani in the mix as a potential candidate you get basically a four way tie at the top with Huckabee, Gingrich, and Romney at 17%, Giuliani at 16%, and Palin at 11%.
The one version of the Republican primary where we did find someone with a clear lead was when Jeb Bush was included as a possible candidate. 30% of voters said they would pick him with Gingrich, Huckabee, and Romney all at 14% and no one else hitting double digits.
There is no early front runner in Florida- these numbers show that the state is completely up for grabs.
Full results here
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