Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Only Romney would make NH competitive

Despite middling approval ratings it appears Barack Obama will win New Hampshire easily next year...unless the Republican nominee is Mitt Romney.

New Hampshire voters are evenly divided on Obama with 46% approving and 46% disapproving. He's on slightly positive ground with independents at 46/43, but Republicans (86%) are more united in their disapproval of the President than Democrats (76%) are in their approval and that's what leaves him at an even split overall.

In spite of his relatively weak personal numbers Obama blasts most of the leading GOP candidates in the state by even wider margins than the 10 point win he earned against John McCain in 2008. He leads Newt Gingrich by 13 points at 52-39, Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee each by 14 points at 51-37 and 52-38 respectively, and Sarah Palin by a whooping 22 points at 56-34. That makes New Hampshire another of Palin's 'Goldwater' states- her deficit there would be the largest for a Republican candidate since 1964 when Lyndon Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater by 27 points.

The reason Obama leads by so much despite voters ambivalence about him is that New Hampshire voters simply hate most of the potential Republican candidates. Huckabee's favorability is 29/52 and besides him the rest of the folks have unfavorable numbers at the 60% level or even higher- 27/60 for Trump, 24/62 for Gingrich, and 28/67 for Palin.

So Obama could be headed for another big victory in New Hampshire...but if the GOP nominated Mitt Romney it would be a completely different story. A slight plurality of voters have a favorable opinion of him- 45% to 44% with a negative one, and Obama leads him by only a 47-46 margin.

The New Hampshire numbers are quite reminiscent of a poll we did in Nevada earlier this year that found a Romney nomination would result in a toss up situation in the state but that the GOP nominating anyone else would hand Obama an easy victory. The Republican nominee will have to win these kinds of states to be successful in 2012 but whether the party base will be open to sacrificing some ideological purity to put forward a candidate who can win in the New Hampshires and Nevadas of the world remains to be seen.

Full results here


I Am Iron Man said...

This once again reinforces my view that Romney is the only current Republican contender with any real shot at beating Obama.

Democratic strategists should be doing everything they can to help the other GOP candidates beat Romney. It's time to play dirty!

Oh yeah: Republican voters -> Don't forget about RomneyCare!!!


On a related note: I think Romney coming out in favor of the elimination of Medicare (Paul Ryan's budget) will be a huge problem for him in the long run. Obama's people should be getting all of this stuff down.

Anonymous said...

What about Tim Pawlenty?

Dustin Ingalls said...

"What about Tim Pawlenty?"

We don't regularly poll him against Obama, nor anyone but Romney, Huckabee, Gingrich, or Palin. We did Trump here at readers' suggestion.

Chris Roberts said...

Just wait till people realize how far right Romney has flipfloped to.
His comments about Medicare are going to come back to haunt him
If he survives the primary.People once thought Mccain might win NH
against Obama.Remember how that turned out.Romney's only advantage against Obama so far Is he makes NH and Nevada competive and comes closet to Obama In several states.Obama Is still beating him In a lot of states,and this Is before the public IS educated on all the flipflops Romney has done.

Anonymous said...

Like they said about McCain - "he is an indpendent and moderate GOP", same is going for Rommney. If the Republican part is not different from Democratic party, and only republicans that are closer to the left are considered electable, then there is not reason voting for the republican party. Then let's go for the communist party in disguise.

McCain intial strength was his experience. He lost the argument of experience when he chose Palin (a great lady). This time around, Obamacare is Obama weakest point and GOP greatest strength. Nominating Romney means loosing GOP's strongest weapon in 2012 presidential election.

The difference between Obamacare and RomneyCare is the difference between six and half a dozen!

Republicans should vote for someone that will motivate her base to vote enmass and not otherwise. If not for Palin, McCain losses would have been greater. Romney is the Republican waterloo in 2012. He will loose some of the Rebulican southern states, and will also loose the swing sates including his home state of Massachusetts. Mark my prediction.

Remember- vote your values, and win or loose with your head up!

The saving grace is thet he will be routed in the republican primaries.

Anonymous said...

Why republican alway talking about flip-flop? did America know the meaning of flip-flop right? only Mr. Blomberg the New York Mayer is truly the flip-flopper,he changed from democrat to republican and then changed from republican to Independent. Reagan changed from democrat to republican it didn't matter any thing instead he became the great president in the America history,because he defeated the cold war,he was smart,strong,courage,and strong leadership style, so now Mitt has Reagan leadership style,Mitt has Reagan character,and Mitt is the most experienced candidate for president in the America history and so all sources even in the republican that don't like Mitt helped the democrat and liberal attacked Mitt,blamed Mitt,anti Mitt for every thing,but the true and look honestly no one is better than Mitt,all the republican candidates and Obama combined still don't match Mitt record. Mitt is the great leader that America need now and in the future,because he knew what wrong,what right,what good,and what bad so he developed himself from the bottom to the top.Mitt changed from pro choice to pro life is the perfect position to stand by a great leadership( a leader can't kill innocents babies)is not flip-flop as they attacked,he need turn one more turn back to pro choice that he was a real flip-flopper but he didn't do as they said,they just don't have any thing to blame. Obama care and Mitt care are so different, Obama had 1900 pages and they had so many things but Mitt had only 70 pages so how it can be the same? no way,and that was the Ma deserve and they voted for it so Mitt gave them they need(86% Favorited)but 38% Favorited Obama care.Mitt is the right man for the right job,the right leader for the right country,and the right person for the right time,Mitt can beat Obama by landslide in 2012 because American people can't stay for more unemployment,more debt,more taxes,more welfare,and more lie.

Web Statistics