Saturday, March 24, 2007

Tracking the Republican Presidential race

The latest Civitas Poll has the Republican presidential race in North Carolina shaping up like this:

Giuliani 33%
McCain 25%
Romney 9%

Our March tracking poll (PDF) numbers weren’t much different:

Giuliani 32%
McCain 17%
Romney 7%

What’s different about PPP’s poll is we also polled Newt Gingrich at 26%.

We initially included Gingrich in the tracking poll because when we started them in January he making a lot of noise about running. Since then, everyone else has officially announced or taken steps towards running, except Gingrich. We’ve been reluctant to take out Gingrich from subsequent polls because he has been polling so well.

However, I am leaning towards eliminating Gingrich for our April tracking poll to be taken the week after next.

Your thoughts?

4 comments:

Justin Thibault said...

Keep him in; because he could run.

What you should leave out is all of that weird HTML in your message

Blue South said...

Any thoughts about taking Gingrich out and putting Thompson in?

Justin Guillory said...

Thompson is an interesting suggestion. There were a lot of conservative folks at the latest Civitas luncheon who were very interested in Thompson and wanted him included on the Civitas poll.

I think we'll hold off on him until he makes more clear intentions that he is running.

I'd also like to see a national poll on Thompson. We've kept these tracking polls to only the top candidates in each party and excluded the lower tier candidates.

I'd be interested to see what tier Thompson starts at.

Justin Guillory said...

The last few national polls have placed Fred Thompson in third place. http://pollingreport.com/wh08rep.htm

If he declares or hints at declaring he will go in the next poll.

 
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