Thursday, November 15, 2007

New Elon poll: the presidential primaries

The Elon poll is not nice to John Edwards.

But I am skeptical.

The southeast (Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida) regional poll released today shows Edwards with the support of only 11% of self identified Democratic voters. That is actually up from a similar February Elon poll that showed him with the support of less than eight percent.

One thing the February poll did that today's poll does not is break out the results by the state of the respondent. Then, Edwards had the support of 13.5% of North Carolina respondents. PPP and Civitas both did North Carolina presidential polls that month and showed Edwards with 34% and 24% levels of support respectively.

Because Elon does not filter for likely primary voters or even likely voters take these results with a grain of salt but here they are:

Democratic President

Clinton 45.2
Obama 17.3
Edwards 11.0
Biden 2.8
Richardson 2.0
Kucinich 1.6
Dodd 0.4
Too early to tell 10.2
Don't know 8.6
Other .8

Republican President

Giuliani 24.6
Thompson 16.2
Romney 11.6
McCain 8.0
Huckabee 8.0
Paul 1.5
Tancredo 0.4
Hunter 0.2
Too early to tell 15.5
Don't know 13.2

1 comment:

Chris said...

Elon and the word "poll" shouldn't be allowed in the same sentence.

I plead and plead with the media to either dismiss these results as useless or at the very least point out that it is a random survey of people who have telephones.

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