Friday, January 2, 2009

More Thoughts on Presidential Vote by CD

Last week I posted some initial thoughts on the results for President in North Carolina by Congressional District and promised some more. Here they are:

The district with the biggest shift in a Democratic direction since 2004 was Sue Myrick's 9th, where Obama lost by just ten points after John Kerry lost by 27 four years ago. There are now five Republican held Congressional seats in the state, and this is the only one where John McCain didn't win by at least 20 points this year. Daniel Johnson and Roy Carter made valiant efforts this year in the 10th and 5th districts respectively, but if there is any district where Democrats have the chance to pick up another seat (and there may not be), I think this is it.

The 9th District actually does not have a particularly significant black population so you can't really trace the movement there to that. I think it's actually because it's a more suburban district and other than increased black turnout, shifts in the voting preferences of suburbanites compared to 2004 was the biggest reason Obama won the state.

Speaking of which the second biggest shift came in David Price's 4th district where Obama won by 27 after Kerry took it by just 11. Even though this district includes Durham County it actually has a below average black proportion compared to the state as a whole. But it does include huge growth areas in places like western Wake County, and again I think you find folks from up north who either moved here in the last four years or voted for Bush but then for Obama.

The other biggest movers were the 8th District, 13th District, and 12th District.

In the 8th District Obama won by 6 and Larry Kissell won by 10. Certainly it helped Kissell that Obama was at the top of the ticket, but Kissell still outran him, a good sign for his future reelection prospects.

When the 13th District was first drawn up for Brad Miller it was a pretty marginally Democratic district and had actually voted for George W. Bush in 2000. Miller has gotten it to the point where he's probably safe in perpetuity, but Obama's 19 point win in the district is an indication that it is moving closer to being safely Democratic for whoever comes next as well.

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