Thursday, November 18, 2010

Virginia Republicans want Allen

Virginia Republicans overwhelmingly want George Allen to be their candidate for the Senate in 2012. 46% say he'd be their pick with the second (and unlikely) choice of Eric Cantor falling all the way back at 18%. 16% would like Ken Cuccinelli and then there's very little support for the remaining options given- 4% for Bill Bolling and Tom Davis and only 2% for Bob Marshall.

The desire for Allen to be the nominee spans the ideological divisions of Virginia Republicans. Conservatives want him by a 47-18 margin over Cantor and moderates do as well by a 43-20 spread. Allen performed the best of the Republicans tested against Jim Webb and Tim Kaine in polling we released yesterday so this appears to be one case where the candidate the GOP base wants the most is also their most electable possibility.

The preferences of Republican voters when it comes to their 2012 nominee for President, as they are everywhere, are pretty jumbled up. Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich lead the pack with 21% and 20% respectively with Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney only a little further back at 17% and 15% each. Ron Paul leads the second tier of candidates with 7%, followed by Tim Pawlenty at 5%, Mitch Daniels at 3%, and John Thune at 2%.

The top tier of GOP hopefuls are pretty well liked across the board by the party base. Huckabee is the most popular with a net +54 favorability rating (72/18), followed by Palin at +46 (70/24), Gingrich at +44 (64/20) and Romney at +41 (63/22).

Huckabee's strength is with female voters with whom he breaks away from the field at least a little bit at 24% with Gingrich at 20%, Romney at 16%, and Palin at 15%. That gives him the small overall advantage despite trailing Gingrich with men. There is some ideological division in the Virginia numbers- Gingrich leads Huckabee by a point with conservatives but Huckabee is up 6 points on him with moderates, giving him the overall lead

It's too tight in Virginia to take a lot away from these numbers but they do provide continuing evidence that Romney is the weakest of the candidates in the South outside of Florida, although not by a huge margin, and that Gingrich and Huckabee splitting support in the region could end up keeping either of them from winning the nomination.

Full results here


Steve said...

Montana GOP should be interesting tomorrow. Guess?

1. Romney 23%
2. Palin 19
3. Huckabee 17
4. Gingrich 13
5. Ron Paul 10
6. Pawlenty 4

Casanova Frankenstein said...

Why you included Bolling, Cuccinelli and Davis is beyond me. They're not even making noise about running. At least you included Bob Marshall, but the candidate who stands the best chance of denying Allen the nomination is Prince William County Chairman Corey Stewart.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Why you included Bolling, Cuccinelli and Davis is beyond me."

Reader suggestions.

No one suggested Stewart to us, nor Jim Gilmore, another possible candidate. There's plenty of time to poll the primary, if one develops, so don't get your panties in a bunch that the very first poll anyone's done on the race doesn't include every conceivable possibility.

Anonymous said...

Didn't you say you were going to release all the GOP presidential numbers today? Still waiting for those Montana numbers. Will they be out tonight or tomorrow?

Anonymous said...

Are you going to poll a couple of states now every weekend for 2012 ?

NRH said...

If it's Webb-Allen again, then it all comes down to turnout. If the Republican presidential candidate comfortably wins Virginia, then Allen can retake the seat. If it's close or if President Obama wins Virginia outright again, then Webb should comfortably win re-election. Allen has no crossover appeal beyond lingering Dixiecrats, and even with a heavy conservative contingent among 'independents' (Republicans unwilling to admit to the name) Allen can't win them. Webb might have trouble rallying the base on his own, as a relatively conservative Democrat, but having Obama atop the ticket will solve that problem for him.

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