Tuesday, February 8, 2011

California Miscellaneous

-The tide is turning in support of gay marriage in California. 51% of voters in the state now think it should be legal while 40% think it should remain illegal. It was just a little over 2 years ago that the state passed Proposition 8 but these numbers are reflective of a general liberalization in the views of Americans toward same sex marriage.

It's not really a question of if a majority of Americans will someday support gay marriage, but when. You can see that within the crosstabs on this poll. Senior citizens, by a 47/42 margin, think gay marriage should continue to be outlawed. But when you take them out of the mix support for legalization moves to 53/38 in favor. As that generation is replaced more and more in the electorate by folks who are not yet of voting age public opinion will continue to move in favor of gay marriage.

-In 2003 Californians recalled Gray Davis and elected Arnold Schwarzenegger. Now they say oops. 42% of voters in the state say that Davis was the superior Governor to only 32% who remain in Schwarzenegger's camp. Democrats, at 56%, are a lot more sold on Davis having better than Republicans, at 48%, are on Schwarzenegger. Beyond that independents go for Davis by a 40/33 margin as well. It would be hard to claim that Davis is a popular figure at this point- but he's certainly not as disliked as Schwarzenegger and his 25/65 favorability rating is.

-So far, so good for the new Jerry Brown administration. Voters in the state give him a 50% approval rating to 25% who disapprove. That represents somewhat of a honeymoon as his personal numbers were certainly never that good during the campaign, but that's better than where we find a lot of other new Governors polling. 70% of Democrats are happy with the job he's doing while only 47% of Republicans disapprove so far, suggesting that they're at least giving him a chance. Independents are positive by a 52/20 margin as well.

-There's no such post election bounce for Barbara Boxer. She continues to have more voters (47%) disapproving of her than approve (45%). That was the case throughout her entire 2010 campaign and she got reelected by double digits anyway. You can take that as a sign that the entire GOP is hopeless in California or simply that the party needs to start nominating much stronger candidates but at any rate what they're doing now is not good enough to even hold an unpopular Senator to a single digit win.

Full results here


Kevin said...

They should put a new proposition that would effectively reverse Prop 8. Something that would insert language akin to 'A marriage may also consist of a union between two consenting adults of either gender'. A lot of states are going to have to add such clases in the future.

It's only a matter of time, now. The bigots are fighting a losing battle. Most Americans are realizing how ridiculous it is to discriminate against LGBT people. In twenty years, opposing gay marriage will be political in all but the reddest of states.

Kevin said...

political suicide*

Jayhawk said...

"Now they say oops. 42% of voters in the state say that Davis was the superior Governor to only 32% who remain in Schwarzenegger's camp."

Well, this is just silly. We'll start with, "Absence makes the heart grow fonder." Measuring Davis with the conditions of then against Arnold and the conditions of now is ridiculous, and if Davis were in office now he would be as thoroughly despised as he was then. Californians, in any case, are quick to blame the governor for problems that are largely caused by the legislature, so the opinions are mostly idiotic in any case.

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