Thursday, February 3, 2011

Crazy E-Mail of the Day

Just for the record on our South Carolina poll we asked folks who they voted for in 2008 and they said John McCain by a 13 point margin. He only actually won the state by 9. And the party id breakdown on our poll was R+5 when the 2008 exit poll showed R+3. So if anything our sample might have skewed a little conservative.

Here it is:
From: Mike Nadw <>
Date: February 3, 2011 6:41:26 PM EST
To: <>
Subject: South Carolina Poll

Dear PPP you polls are complete bullcrap and I don't know who you folks are trying to fool. Your South Carolina numbers for Palin, DeMint, and Gingrich are absolutely. Absurd. I polled in South Carolina and your numbers are outrageous DeMint would beat by 20 points and Palin and Gingrich would certainly beat Obama by at least the 9 Points that McCain won by. You clearly are not polling the state correctly or likely at all. Palin and Gingrich are easily more popular than Obama in South Carolina. Your 34/58 favorable for Palin is outrageous. Your South Dakota numbers are bogus as well. You don't even poll these states, do you? Kristi Noem's favorable number is 12 points lower than the candidate that she beat less than 3 months ago. You are making it up. Your polls don't have to be right this far out and that is why you are pushing outrageous. There is also Texas poll that has Palin leading Obama by 15 in Texas and by 1 point like you propogandists have. Your Palin numbers are insane, every state your Palin numbers are outrageous. We have polled Palin in West Virginia and she leads Obama by double digits not 4 Points.


Anonymous said...

I worked on a statewide in SC last cycle. Your Obama and Palin numbers are spot-on

Anonymous said...

So this emailer is a pollster? Where are your polls?

Jayant Reddy said...

Well I Googled the name "Mike Nadw," and no person by that name turns up.

The dude (if even a dude!) is a prankster.

Anonymous said...

LOL...may be crazy but spot on!! Floor for ANY Republican against Obama is 46% which is what McCain received. And he received 46% of the vote with 6++ million Republicans staying home because McCain is Dem-lite, ran a terrible campaign, and stated he wasn't strong on the economy when the economy was tanking. Anybody who believes that Obama will win in states like TX, SC, SD, AZ, etc, etc is delusional...and I don't care who's on the ticket for the Repubs. Hope it will be Romney but if it's Palin she still wins these states--and will win them easily. Come on guys, have some common sense! Thanks for the laugh though!!

Anonymous said...

PPP your numbers are bogus. National Review says you are crap the fact that are alligned with the radical left. PPP does Markos write the your blogs as well in addition to writing the checks. PPP is now a joke. Pushing the Markos line killed PPP.

Anonymous said...

Your numbers are a joke National Review says you are crap. DeMint by 2. No way. Bush won South Carolina by 18 points. McCain won it by 9 and that is with Obama getting every black vote he could and with 2 close house races. He will lose it by at least 10 points to any Republican.

Anonymous said...

PPP your poll numbers are a joke just like those loons at Daily KOS. What a minute you are Daily KOS. What are you using Delaware polling numbers?

Let me give you a hint about Mrs. Palin and you can save your time polling Delaware. Mrs. Palin believes that primaries are to get your message out and then let the people decide. We all know once you get into the general it is awhole new ball game.

We have a state run MSM and PPP is George Soros state run.

Let me tell you something else. You are turning into a laughing joke.

Tell George Soros the word is one termer.

NRH said...

Looks like another name for 'Mike Nadw' would be 'Anonymous' between 2/3/2011 10:00 AM and 2/3/2011 11:00 AM. Which would be about right to fit with that email - it sounds like it was taken at a bar by someone who's not usually sober by the time noon rolls around.

Anonymous said...

I called up three of my friends in South Carolina and asked them who they were voting for and they all said Palin so OBVIOUSLY your poll is wrong. Duh. Everyone except librul elitists who believe in "statistics" can see that.

Anonymous said...

Good advice to you people at PPP:

Don't care what these crazy people say. Your accuracy in the recent cycles proves them wrong.

BTW: Are you planning to poll the 2011 Governor races in MS, KY, LA anytime soon to get an early look ?

I think there's not much to see because Jindal, Beshear, Bryant are all strongly favored to win, but still it would be great to get fresh numbers and 2012 numbers too.

MilesC56 said...

...could that email perhaps be from Scott Rasmussen? lol

Dustin Ingalls said...

"BTW: Are you planning to poll the 2011 Governor races in MS, KY, LA anytime soon to get an early look ?"

We did an early look at KY as part of our final 2010 poll, and released it shortly after the election. I'm sure we'll be doing those races at some point this year.

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't call this person crazy your polls lately thinking Dems and Obama are doing swell are ridiculous, Besides where is the proof 2009 turnout will replicate itself in 2012? I don't see as many young voters coming out seeing most have no jobs thanks to Obama

Once you started polling for Hate America Daily Kos ou sorta been debunked over and over

Marvin Marks said...

The lunatics posting comments about how Sarah Palin would do as well (or better than) John McCain really make me laugh. What planet are these people from?

If Obama and the Democratic Party are lucky enough to get Sarah Palin as an opponent (ie if enough crazy Tea Party types vote in the GOP primaries...) then Obama will win in a huge landslide... including victories in states like Texas and South Carolina where typically a Democratic candidate would have little chance.

Anonymous said...

Rasmussun was just having a bad day when he rifled off that email.

Forgive Scott, please.

BTW, are you folks at PPP going to include Huntsman in your upcoming Western States polling?

Might be very very very interesting to see how much he cuts into Romney's support out there.

Thanks, and again,

Great Job as always!

DBL said...

Anonymous is just Tom when he doesn't log in.

Smooth Jazz said...

LOL, Glad to see people are paying attention to your bogus poll numbers. Any pollster affiliated with DailyKOS should not be polling any Repubs, especially Gov Palin. Period. Stop. End. I noticed that since the 2010 elections, your numbers have been way out of kilter, as if you're trying a create a meme that Dems and Obama are on the rise.

A Quinnipiac poll on Fla today tells me that your polls are bogus. As you know, Fla is a swing state so their results show a middle of the road perspective. Quinnipiac had Obama Job Approval at 47/49 in Fla about where I'd expect. Senator Nelson is under water as well with JA numbers in the 43% range. No doubt you guys would have Obama and Nelson in the mid 50% or higher.

Sorry, but I'll wait to see numbers from "independent" pollsters before I take any of your numbers seriously.

Smooth Jazz said...

"Don't care what these crazy people say. Your accuracy in the recent cycles proves them wrong."

Give me a break: Previous "accuracy" means nothing now that DailyKOS is their sponsor. Besides, their prior record hasn't been all that much better than the other partisan pollsters out there.

Let me be blunt: Now that these guys are affiliated with DailyKOS, the only people that take PPP seriously are the Wash DC/New York echo chamber Kool Aid drinkers and various other Liberals. DailyKOS was blaming Palin for the Tucson shootings before he knew the facts for goodness sakes. Any poll you guys take on Gov Palin should be taken with a grain of salt until corroborated by other polls.

The only people you are fooling are yourselves and your Liberal cheerleaders who suffer the same groupthink.

Tom Jensen said...


Completely false

Anonymous said...

Will you release the 2012 GOP numbers for Arizona and South Dakota today ?

Dustin Ingalls said...

Smooth Jazz: We actually have Nelson at 36% approval and 33% disapproval. And Obama at 45/49, so worse than they have it (though this came in December before his rebound).

LALaw said...

You guys should check out this guy's Facebook page. He has his only like as Sarah Palin. You can also check out his wall, which has status updates to vote for Bristol Palin on Dancing with the Stars. This guy is a Palin-fanatic, which is scary.

NRH said...

Another idiot's take:
"Previous "accuracy" means nothing now that DailyKOS is their sponsor."

So apparently all the polls in 2010, when DKos was a PPP client, and when PPP was one of the best-rated pollsters in the industry, with a distinctly better performance than teatard-favorite Scotty Ras, do mean something, since those are not 'previous' accuracy but 'ongoing.'

Fortunately, the number of people who believe the kind of crap put out by Smooth Jazz is even less than the number of people who actually could identify 'smooth jazz' as a distinct genre.

Granny T said...

Not everyone thinks your polls are all that far off or that you are trying to sway the polling one way or another. Many of us realize that current events affect the results and watch the polling to evaluate trends.

Please ignore the negative comments. Many of them were fine with your polling as long as their candidate was winning.

Keep up the good work.

Thank you.

DBL said...

My tongue was firmly in my cheek. You're way too defensive.

Smooth Jazz said...

"You guys should check out this guy's Facebook page. He has his only like as Sarah Palin. You can also check out his wall, which has status updates to vote for Bristol Palin on Dancing with the Stars. This guy is a Palin-fanatic, which is scary."

Who or What are you talking about?? I couldn't care less about Bristol Palin on Dancing With The Stars or Sarah Palin for that matter. I just think a polling entity sponsored by one of the most radical, left wing blogs around (DailyKOS) should be viewed skeptically, and that we need other, more "independent" polls to corroborate what these guys are putting out there.

For example, both Gallup and Rasmussen has Obama at 46% Job Approval these days. If PPP is showing Obama at 55% JA, then that should raise a red flag. Trust BUT Verify is all I'm saying.

Dustin Ingalls said...

Smooth Jazz:

1.) Take a chill pill.

2.) The Palin fanatic LALaw was talking about was Mike Nadw, the guy who wrote this email but who sounds an awful lot like you.

3.) Daily Kos no more "sponsors" us than any of our other myriad private clients. We do a specific poll, give them the results, they pay us. End.

4.) It's crazy to me how you keep calling us biased yet are totally unaware of what our polls actually say. Our latest national poll for Kos has him at 50/45 approval/disapproval, the first time we've had him in majority approval for them or in our own national polls in a long time, lagging behind Gallup and others who'd already shown him back above 50% a few weeks prior when we still had him at 46-48%.

Jimmy Noel said...

You guys should really not pay any attention to these morons. I'm a libertarian-republican and i think u guys are doing a great job and if someone doesn't like it then that's just too bad. I completely agree with Smooth Jazz. Keep doing great work and we will continue to follow your work. Thanks

Anonymous said...

Smooth Jazz, as has been talked about repeatedly, Rasmussen is not non-partisan. Nor, for that matter, is PPP. But they don't seem to let their partisan identification get in the way of their question wording.

And of course the fact that PPP is already using a very soft likely voter screen (correct me if I'm wrong Dustin & Tom, but you are using a "soft" likely voter screen right?) and that Nate Silver and other polling analysts have said PPP leans right means you have no idea what you are talking about.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"(correct me if I'm wrong Dustin & Tom, but you are using a "soft" likely voter screen right?)"

You could put it that way. While we're technically only polling registered voters now, less likely voters tend to screen themselves out, and a registered-voter screen in a presidential cycle is closer to a likely-voter screen than it would be in a midterm.

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