Thursday, February 10, 2011

GOP Honeymoon over

Whatever bounce in his polling numbers John Boehner got from becoming Speaker didn't last very long. When PPP started its weekly polling for Daily Kos last month Boehner's approval rating was a positive 35/28 spread. Within two weeks that was already on the decline to just barely favorable territory at 33/31 and now he's already in the red with the portion of voters who approve of him down to 28% and his disapproval at 30%.

There are two main reasons for that overall drop. The first is that independents in particular have become quickly disenchanted with him. He's had a 13 point drop in his net approval with them over the last four weeks- after starting out at a positive 34/30, he's now down to a negative 23/32. The second is that there are already indications that his performance is making the Republican base antsy. He started out at a 56/15 approval with them and has already dropped a net ten points to 49/18. We've long wondered if a decidedly establishment figure like Boehner would be able to keep an increasing empowered and anti-establishment base happy and cracks are already beginning to show.

Beyond Boehner's numbers the most amazing thing on our poll this week is that not only are Democrats back ahead on the generic Congressional ballot by a 45-41 margin, but they're ahead by a 38-31 margin with independents! That's a quite change from what we saw over the course of 2009 and 2010. The four point lead for Democrats on the generic ballot represents an 11 point shift from the November elections and there were more than 40 districts that Democrats lost by that margin or less so if we went to the polls today under the current district configuration it's entirely possible Democrats would get their House majority right back. Of course redistricting will give Republicans some opportunities to shore things up for themselves but at any rate the honeymoon, such as it ever was, looks to be over.

Our full poll for Daily Kos here.

44 comments:

Christian Liberty said...

"Despite the change in the House, GOP voters remain more critical of Congress than members of President Obama's party. Fifty-five percent (55%) of Republicans and 60% of voters not affiliated with either of the major parties say the current Congress is doing a poor job, a view shared by just 32% of Democrats."
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/congressional_performance

THE reason that the GOP doesn't have high approval ratings is because THEIR AGENDA HAS NOT BEEN CONSERVATIVE ENOUGH. They have not been able to CUT government spending ENOUGH.

Conservativism is THE answer to any national party's popularity. The more conservative the GOP acts, the more popular they will be. And the more conservative the Democrats act, the more popular they will be.

All data still confirms another GOP wave in 2012.

GOP will INCREASE majority in house, win a majority in the Senate, and defeat Obama by the biggest landslide margin since Reagan trounced Carter.

Anonymous said...

With one oddball outlier poll you are jumping to conclusions? A wiser headline would be, "GOP Honeymoon over?" The question mark is very much called for at this stage. I suspect it is just falling in line with Obama's numbers improving. I'm quite sure this will only be temporary and then the GOP will be back ahead. At least wait for a trend over a few months and several other polls to indicate the same before you draw any firm conclusions.

Christian Liberty said...

Don't get too excited. When the true state of the economy is EXPOSED by the ADULTS (conservative Republicans) in Congress restraining the growth the welfare state's allowance, the spoils patronage system that BRIBES people into voting for Demoncrats will collapse. The housing bubble was nothing in comparison. THE ENTIRE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT is a massive unsustainable bubble. When people have to learn to live as responsible ADULTS and stop sucking off the government's (taxpayers') teets, they will come to realize that the Republicans are the vastly more responsible, more intelligent, and more compassionate choice.

The GOP landslides of 2010 and 2012 and 2014 will in all likelihood produce a 60-seat Republican supermajority in the senate, a conservative Republican in the White House, and 250-290 Republicans in the House.

If you can't see it yet, it's only because you are stuck in denial.

Christian Liberty said...

"Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Mainstream voters think Congress is doing a poor job, but just 24% of the Political Class agrees." (RR)

Those who disapprove of Congress want Congress to be MORE CONSERVATIVE, to shrink government, cut taxes, secure the border, REPEAL OBAMACARE, refuse to bail out irresponsible states and localities, restore Constitutional LIMITS on government tyranny, and get the government OUT of our lives.

The more CONSERVATIVE the Congress is, the more popular they will be. The more CONSERVATIVE the candidate for Congress, the more popular they will be.

The era of big government IS OVER.
LET FREEDOM RING!

Anonymous said...

You just fail to mention that your question isn't exactly a generic ballot question.

Rick said...

The GOP never seems to remember that they always take the losing side. They win battles but always lose the war: ie: slavery, women's rights, Social Security, etc. Conservatism itself isn't always a bad thing, but the GOP is NOT conservative - it is right-wing extremist, promoting the Elitist Corporate Facist Agenda. They will certainly lose their gains in 2012. After all, they are not really for limited government, just anti-government for the people.

Anonymous said...

Christian Liberty is crazy... go back to the 1600's where you belong

Anonymous said...

The biggest reason for the drop is they have done everything but focus on jobs. People don't want to redo the healthcare debate or hear the Socons prattle on about abortion or gay marriage. They want Congress to focus on jobs like a laser and work with the president to get things done. Otherwise, the GOP will right back out of power in 2012.

Dustin Ingalls said...

Oh CL, how we've missed your kooky rants.

"All data still confirms another GOP wave in 2012."

Riiiight.... The GOP may very likely take the Senate majority and keep its House majority, but not because of a wave, but rather because of sheer numbers. If you're defending 23 seats and your opponent is defending only 10, and they've only gotta take 4 seats to win a majority, odds are you're going to be in the minority after the election.

"You just fail to mention that your question isn't exactly a generic ballot question."

No, but it asks whether people want more Democrats or more Republicans in Congress.

JB said...

look at all the nuts commenting on this post......seems to me that these people are scared. And if you guys really think Obama is going to get trounced, think again. If you think Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, Deleware, Maryland, California, Washington, Oregon are going to vote Republican in a General Election then you have no clue about American Politics in the 21st century.

Anonymous said...

RE: the above comments..

I guess the GOP plants whose job it is to try to taint any sane reporting are hard at work. Why must you dump on everything?

Christian Liberty said...

Rick, remember that the GOP was on the right side of slavery (and Dems were on the wrong side), the GOP was on the right side of women's rights (and the Dems were on the wrong side), and that socialist insecurity is an immoral ponzi scheme that is a million times more evil than anything Bernie Madoff ever did.

Republicans have always been on the right side of every single issue in America's history. Your pathetic attempt to deny reality just shows the stupidity and mendacity of the left.

g75401 said...

I would love to see an actual conservative party-you know, the one that doesn't legislate morality and delivers a small govt. Instead, we get to see the social authoritarians who pretend to be conservative while they bloat the size of govt and bankrupt the country. What the voter needs to do is stay with one party, preferably the Dems, until the GOP realizes that abortion isn't the govt business, smoking pot isn't the govt business, gay marriage isn't the govt business, interfering in end of life decisions isn't the govt business, and dictating the domestic policy of other countries isn't the govt business

Christian Liberty said...

"Next year’s election is shaping up as another ideological struggle between right and left, a situation President Obama is working overtime to avoid.
Some of the president’s supporters are disappointed that he has not laid out a big and bold agenda for the second half of his term and is instead focused on advancing and implementing the work he has already begun. After two years of towering ambitions, Obama is offering a 25-year plan for high-speed rail and some tax-code simplifications. Audacity has given way to incrementalism.
Part of this is practical. The Democratic supermajorities of his first two years have been replaced by arguably the most conservative House since the Coolidge Republicans and the Senate is more evenly divided.
But another part is political calculation. Obama is not looking for 2012 to be an ideological clash but rather a debate over details."


Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/02/08/obama-lays-trap-eventual-gop-nominee/#ixzz1DaVgaTEF

So, Obama came into office as a far-left radical tyrant. Then the electorate rejected his immoral and dangerous agenda. And now Obama is turning into Michael Dukakis or Al DLC Gore (competence, not ideology) in order to hide his radical left-wing ideas and the disaster that they have so obviosuly become.

Either way. Obama the radical will be rejected. And Obama the shrinking violet will be rejected. Either way, the Democrats will face another landslide defeat in 2012.

Christian Liberty said...

Rick, the undeniable fact is that Socialist Insecurity is an evil pyramid scheme that is only possible by a tyrannical government STEALING from its citizens and FORCING them to accept a pitiful rate of return on their coercive "contribution" in order to keep the immoral pyramid scheme going.

Any Demoncrat that supports Socialist Insecurity is COMMITTING EVIL. He is doing the work of Satan.

Any opponent of the evil pyramid scheme is doing the work of a just God and his Holy angela.

Those who oppose Socialist Insecurity are morally right. Those who support Socialist Insecurity are evil thugs and/or brainwashed slaves.

Christian Liberty said...

Dustin, what you fail to recognize is that limited government conservatives will win election over not only the next few years, but the next few decades. The entire spoils system by which Demoncrats BRIBE voters with money STOLEN and EXTORTED from productive citizens is ending. The Demoncrats' ponzi scheme is crumbling because the sunlight of accountability is shining through. Americans will not put up with a corrupt, incompetent, and tyrannical government. They will demand that government GET OUT of their lives, respect constitutional LIMITS, cut its spending, and stop STEALING from productive citizens.

The era of big government is OVER.

Christian Liberty said...

To any doubters, let me clear. Obama WILL be defeated. He will be seen as a failure. And a Republican, any Republican, will be able to defeat him, assuming Democrats are even oblivious enough to renominate Obama again.

Christian Liberty said...

The entire redistributive welfare state (not just tax-and-borrow-and-spend, but actually STEAL-and-borrow-and-spend) is a massive ponzi scheme. The first economic shock of 2007-2009 was only a prelude to the awakening that will come 2011-2013. The economic indicators are quite clear. The ponzi scheme is being exposed. And the Demoncrats and RINOs who propped it up will be exposed as its instigators and enablers. And conservatives will be seen as the adults who will set our country back on its proper course.

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2011/02/ponzi-psychology.html

Anonymous said...

hey, CL - I think it's so COOL that you write RANDOM words in caps to display their GREAT TRUTH, or maybe it's that you have such heartfelt COURAGE in your CONVICTIONS! and stuff.

Fact is, you're really wrong, er, WRONG-O, and that makes me HAPPY!

Christian Liberty said...

g75401 ...

Your point is well taken that Republicans have not up to this point been conservative enough in halting the growth of a tyrannical redistributive government. That is, unfortunately, a product of the times that we have just left. Until recently, the private sector could still grow sufficiently to fund the redistributive State. And since the elitist political class media insisted on politicians that keep the ponzi scheme going, few Republicans were courageous enough to challenge the social demands of Washington DC head-on.

Now that the economic strains of the collapsing ponzi scheme government are obvious and a conservative counterculture infrastructure is in place to support our representatives, they can have the support and accountability from the grassroots to act with the courage of their convictions. There is now a groundswell of not only support for, but DEMAND for, the fiscal responsibility that Americans have come to expect from their own household and business budgets.

Christian Liberty said...

Yes, Dustin, all data still shows an incoming GOP wave.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/general_business/february_2011/43_say_government_policy_mistakes_created_great_depression_of_1930s_26_disagree

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/right_direction_or_wrong_track
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/healthcare/february_2011/54_say_states_should_have_right_to_opt_out_of_health_care_law

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/healthcare/health_care_law

The American electorate is already demanding conservative policies. The electorate is EAGER to support conservative candidates, if only the GOP will be CONSERVATIVE ENOUGH!!!

Lambchopa said...

It was inevitable that this would happen. The Republicans do absolutely nothing by grandstand when they are in control and that does no one any good. The delusional tone of the comments being posted here are just anger at reality.

Christian Liberty said...

This sums it up well:

"The two major parties haven’t offered such sharply different visions for the nation since the 1980s, and that’s not where an incumbent liberal president wants to be."

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/02/08/obama-lays-trap-eventual-gop-nominee/#ixzz1Dak1Ukiu

Obama's ONLY slim chance is to make people forget how radically far-left he truely is. If Obama doesn't succeed in entirely separating himself from his radical left base, Obama WILL LOSE. And if Obama does pander to his radical left base, Obama WILL LOSE.

T_H_S said...

Every GOP Honeymoon always lasts but a very short period of time. Why? Because too many elected GOP officials get caught doing silly things, like sending pictures of their half-naked bodies over the Internet to strangers while they are cruising open websites like Craigslist. Duh.

Christian Liberty said...

Demoncrats can only buy their elections when enough of the population is willing to go deeply into debt to finance big government schemes. America is now rejecting such government tyranny and the indebtedness and uncompetitiveness and poverty it inevitably brings. America knows instinctively that fiscal conservatism is not only better, but morally imperative.

Anonymous said...

I must say that I'm disappointed with PPP. I used to have a lot more respect for the impartiality of their polls but since they have partnered with Daily Kos, they seem to be getting more partisan. it's sad.

Tim Davis said...

meaningless blog ...other than the numbers how about some reasons and realizations other than just poll numbers... who cares?

A Midnight Rider said...

Oh boy. We have two years of this nonsense from the right to endure. {{{sigh}}}. America made a horrible mistake this past election as did Massachusetts with Senator Brown. Massachusetts will fix that in 2012 and I really thing the rest of America will come around also.

Anonymous said...

Right, and Hulburd will beat Quayle in AZ-3.

Anonymous said...

JB..........true, true....Im one of those people in one of the states you were referring to (washington state)....if people like CL thinks this state and any of the others you mentioned would vote for a republican in the general, they are deluded!!!

washingtondem88 said...

CL......that you quote FOX News talking points and put up Fox News links as GOSPEL and you're so BREATHLESS in your ANALYSIS does NOTHING to sway me or MANY of the people who read this POLL....see CL??? I can use caps randomly too!!!

Marvin Marks said...

The problem with your theory Christian Liberty is that while "conservatism" (as you define it) may be the key to political support with the GOP base, it's also the key to destroying the country and alienating everyone who isn't crazy in the process.

The idea that we need to be cutting back spending right now is absurd. We're in a recession. You idiots just know absolutely nothing about economics.

Shadrach said...

How are the polls more partisan? Right-wingers will only accept something as impartial if it shows Republicans in the lead. Fair does not mean Republicans win everything, that's a delusion.

Tall Paul said...

People want conservatism and cuts in government until they feel the cuts themselves. Like having no health insurance, welfare cut, less money for school lunchs etc.

Anonymous said...

Christian Liberty is cuckoo for coco puffs. He has no idea of history or reality... and this guy can vote. God Bless you President Obama, please bring more socialism to our great liberal country of America!

NRH said...

Hey, Xian 'Herbie' Liberty's been storing it all up and now he's blowing his load all in one wad! And returning in pure Herbie form, too, in the kooky belief that Rasmussen and Fox constitute 'all' the data in existence (despite Ras' poor performance whether polling on his own or as his Fox-paid subsidiary), with the RANDOM CAPITALS everyone came to know and mock.

Hey, glad to know you've recovered from your hangover after Senator O'Donnell's victory party, and Senator Angle's, and Senator McMahon, and Senator Fiorina, all of whom were absolute stone-cold locks in 2010 according to Herbie, because they were the more conservative candidates. Oh, and Senator Miller from Alaska, too, definitely the more conservative option won there in that highly conservative state, right?

Ah, memory lane... Here's one from Herbie, back on 9/30/10... (http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=2799451770086337664&postID=3718946007762405853)
"Coons is the extremist nutjob. O'Donnell is the mainstream candidate with mainstream values."

Real good grasp of 'mainstream' there.

Anonymous said...

Christian Liberty is also an oxymoron. The two concepts are incompatible.

Anonymous said...

If the real consequences of conservative - libertarian - Koch brothers policies ever took effect in this country, it would not only be the end of conservatism and the Republican party, it might also be the fall of the Democrats. Keep pushing this self-destructive nonsense and the real threat of the 1930s will come back with a power it never had. Socialism -- real hard core socialism -- is the natural reaction to the arrogance and grasping greed of the rich and the business sector. And conservatives are over-playing their hand and they will get burned. And this country will suffer for their inability to control their arrogance and their bubble-making greed.

Anonymous said...

I find all the religious commentary about the Democrats being satanic hilarious, and the countless ad hominem attacks that everyone keeps launching to be just laughable.

The fact that the best argument you offer to slipping polls and a Total failure of the GOP to do what they've been asked to do so far, (You know, figure out how to generate jobs?)is to call Obama a "Radical Leftie" and to demonize the left altogether (considering that Obama is a centrist, but that's beyond the point. after all, what would you Republican's know about Bi-partisanship? All you care about is winning the elections, you don't give a f**k what happens after)


I don't know. It's all just too funny. You have a house that's doing nothing but pushing wedge issues, and not doing a damn thing about the economy; a base that rages about taxes, calling them unconstitutional when in the federal papers, both Adams and Jefferson go on about the country's right to ask of its people a tax in order to run those faculties for which the government has been formed.

You whine about regulation, which, if let go, would leave the middle class in a state of utter welfare and disparity, and so on, and so forth.

To be honest, you could let all government control go, but you'd have child labor. You'd have cheap labor. You'd have no standard of living, and your government would be tantamount to an oligarchy. Corporations would rule everything, and it would be in their best interests to hire the cheapest labor wherever they can find it.

That's what happens when you have Lassiez-Faire Markets in a Globalized world, where people will work for next to nothing to produce goods in third world countries. That's what happens when there's no regulation. There's no Ghost hand. There is only greed, and an utter lack of sympathy and empathy. Have fun in 21st century America, or should I call it New New Mexico?

Anonymous said...

Boy, I've never checked the comments on this site. This CL...Demons,Satan,evil etc.
Sure glad he(or she) isn't my neighbor. You give real Christians a bad name
You had better wake up. Republicans are good at talking,but the walk sure trips them up. They can't govern worth a crap ...it's been proven again and again. For some reason the electorate forgets very quickly.They are all morally upright...till their picture ,shirtless,shows up on Craigslist. Or ,speaking of Craig,they are playing footsy w/ an undercover policeman in an airport mens room.
I believe this poll because the Repubs have done nothing since winning the majority. They don't have the guts to tackle the deficit(which Numbnuts Bush produced after frittering away the surplus)and they're doing nadda to produce jobs. Taking away women's rights won't win you any popularity contests.Then make sure people can't buy health insurance ...yeah..

Jennifer said...

It is very simple really. Repubs are focusing on wedge issues that NO ONE accept extremists care about. Trying to redefine rape is tacky and just turns people off. I am a moderate Dem from Connecticut. I am willing to give some Repubs a chance if they really want to tackle the deficit but they just are not really interested. The social conservatives just ruin the whole party for me. Ike would roll in his grave if he saw what happen to this party and Teddy Roosevelt would be disgusted.

Todd Dugdale said...

The link to the poll doesn't work currently.

Anonymous said...

@Christian Liberty-

Get your head checked.

That is all.

Anonymous said...

By 2012, Ohioans will have lost their taste for conservatives via Kasich's dismemberment of the middle class. No republican has won the white house without Ohio. Other swing states seem to be having similar election 2010 regrets. I have a feeling 2012 will look a lot like 2008. I can only speak for myself, but I am sick of the Republicans doing everything but strengthen this economy. Abortion? Gays? That wasn't the mandate. Every minute these clowns like John Boner spend on frivolous token resolutions like that to repeal Obamacare should enrage Americans because those are minutes spent avoiding the job they were sent to do. Which is to fix. The. Economy.

 
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