Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Checking in on John Kasich

-John Kasich, already unpopular in Ohio when PPP polled the state in March, has seen his numbers continue to head even further in the wrong direction and is now tied with Florida Governor Rick Scott as the least popular Governor in the country out of 38 that we have polled on. Just 33% of voters in the state now approve of Kasich to 56% who disapprove. In March it was a 35/54 spread. Kasich's numbers are basically identical to where they were then with independents, and he's actually ticked up a little bit with Democrats. What's really plunging him is that Republicans aren't even all that enthused about him anymore- he's gone from a +53 (71/18) spread with them in March to now +30 (58/28) with them in May. That 23 point decline within his own party is largely responsible for his overall drop.

-Ohio voters are having some serious, serious buyer's remorse about voting for Kasich. They now say if they could do it over again they'd vote for Ted Strickland by a 25 point margin over Kasich, 59/34. Our final poll before the election last fall, which hit the results on the head, found Kasich winning independents by 18 points. Now they say they would vote for Strickland by 16. And while only 9% of Republicans crossed party lines to support Strickland last year, now 26% say they would if they had the chance to do it over again.

-Kasich and his first term Republican brethren across the Midwest may be the best thing that's ever happened to Barack Obama's reelection chances. Obama's numbers are middling in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Iowa to name a few. But in all of those places he's at least more popular than Kasich, Tom Corbett, Rick Snyder, and Terry Branstad. You have a situation where people voted Republican last year and are quite unhappy with the results and that might keep them from voting Republican again next year whether they're enthralled with Obama or not. That series of Midwestern losses last year may end up actually enhancing Obama's chances for another term.

-The furor over Senate Bill 5 was one of the main events precipitating Kasich's decline and voters in the state continue to strongly favor repealing it. Only 35% say they would choose to keep the law, compared to 55% who say they would scrap it. In March 54% said they would repeal to 31% who preferred keeping it so those numbers are basically unchanged. Democrats (78%) are much more into getting rid of SB 5 than Republicans (59%) are into keeping it and independents split against it by a 52/40 margin as well. 45% of voters want to take things a step further and guarantee the right to collective bargaining in the state constitution, compared to 32% who say they would be opposed to such an amendment.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

Thanks for publishing the results on the gay marriage question. There's far too few questions being asked about this in today's state-by-state polling.
The fact that Ohio opposes gay marriage 53%-31% is probably one of the reasons why Obama isn't supporting such marriages.

The Interesting Times said...

I wouldn't compare John Kasich with Rick Scott.

Scott was never really all that popular in the first place. Kasich, on the other hand, was popular but now isn't.

Anonymous said...

Huh. That's a pretty resounding majority against gay marriage in Ohio. If it's truly a tie nationwide (as implied by recent polls), I wonder where support is greater than expected.

Anonymous said...

One of Kasich's biggest problems is that Ohio voters approved a constitutional amendment allowing casino gambling which dictated specific fees and taxes and the governor thinks the taxpayers got cheated. He hired a consulting firm, which works on a fee plus commission basis to extract more taxes from the operators. That move has shut down construction and is costing Ohioans several thousand jobs in Cincinnati and Cleveland.

Mark B. said...

Glad to hear radical Republicans are slipping in the polls even absent national attention.

Anonymous said...

"Huh. That's a pretty resounding majority against gay marriage in Ohio. If it's truly a tie nationwide (as implied by recent polls), I wonder where support is greater than expected."

Well, PPP itself has said that the reason Gallup and others are getting these high levels of support for gay marriage is that automated polls are much more reliable than the telephone ones when it comes to controversial, politically incorrect issues like homosexuality. Don't expect the media to point that out and change their 'most Americans support gay marriage' (even if it's not true) narrative.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Scott was never really all that popular in the first place. Kasich, on the other hand, was popular but now isn't."

True, but I wouldn't say Kasich was every popular. In our final poll last fall, he had a 43-42 fav. Not really breaking the bank, especially in that more Republican than usual electorate. Scott just is confirming voters' dim views of him to begin with, yes.

I Am Iron Man said...

Buyer's remorse across the country.

It's too bad really... people keep making the horrible mistake of voting Republican. When will they learn? Hopefully in 2012... but I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP tricks people into voting for them again in 2014. Such short memories.

The Original Donald said...

Iron Man, If gas is $5/gallon and inflation and unemployment are in double digits, people will realize WHY they vote R in 2010....and do it again in 2012

oddjob said...

and do it again in 2012

Which will only make things worse, as it's done just now. The GOP has been the prime driver behind making average Americans' lives worse over the past three decades.

oddjob said...

As to whether at present a majority of Americans is or is not in favor of gay and lesbian couples having the right to marry, the one thing that is incontrovertable over the past twenty years is that the younger the age cohort the more in favor of marriage equality the age cohort is, and as the age cohort becomes older its support for marriage equality does not weaken.

Therefore whether a majority is in favor now or not, a majority will be in favor within the next decade.

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