Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Feingold would be favorite

If Russ Feingold wants to return to the Senate he'll start out as a strong front runner. He has good favorability numbers and leads four potential Republicans opponents by double digits.

51% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of Feingold to 38% with an unfavorable one. He's on positive ground with independents at 50/37 and almost twice as many Republicans (15%) like him as Democrats (8%) dislike him. These numbers are a pretty clear indication that his loss last year had less to do with him than it did with the national political climate and poor Democratic turnout in the state. Things are moving back toward the Democrats nationally and that's particularly the case in Wisconsin where Scott Walker has quickly become quite unpopular.

In hypothetical contests Feingold leads Tommy Thompson 52-42, Mark Neumann 53-41, JB Van Hollen 53-38, and Jeff Fitzgerald 54-39. He wins independents by at least 9 points in all of the match ups and takes more than 90% of the Democratic vote while keeping the Republican candidates in the 80s within their own parties.

Thompson polls the best on the Republican side at this point, but he doesn't exactly look like a juggernaut candidate. 42% of voters have a favorable opinion of him and an equal 42% have a negative one. He would start out well behind Feingold and against the rest of the Democrats we tested he would basically find himself in a toss up situation- he ties Ron Kind at 44%, has a 1 point lead over Tammy Baldwin at 45-44, and has a 3 point lead over Steve Kagen at 45-42. Primary numbers we will release later in the week show that Republicans aren't exactly dying for Thompson to be their nominee and that he could have a tough time in a primary if he had a strong opponent.

Democrats lead all 9 of the potential match ups we tested that involve neither Feingold nor Thompson. Baldwin does the next best of the Democrats after Feingold. She leads Neumann by 5 at 46-41, Van Hollen by 7 at 46-39, and Fitzgerald by 11 at 48-37. Next best is Kind who leads Neumann by 4 at 44-40, Van Hollen by 6 at 44-38, and Fitzgerald by 8 at 45-37. And the weakest of the Dems is Kagen who leads Neumann by only 1 at 42-41, and Van Hollen and Fitzgerald by identical 5 point margins at 43-38.

To break that all down in the simplest form possible at this point:

-If Feingold runs, he's a strong favorite.
-If Feingold doesn't run and Thompson does, it's a toss up.
-If neither Feingold nor Thompson runs, Democrats start out with a slight advantage.

Here are how the Democrats stack up for the general election in tabular form:


Average Lead over Republicans

Russ Feingold


Tammy Baldwin


Ron Kind


Steve Kagen


And here's how the Republicans stack up:


Average Deficit to Democrats

Tommy Thompson


Mark Neumann


JB Van Hollen


Jeff Fitzgerald


We'll have to see how the field shapes up in the next few months but at this point Democrats certainly look to be favored to hold onto the seat.

Full results here


gp said...

I know the national party doesn't like him because he's too liberal, independent. Can he raise enough money to win the race?

Anonymous said...

Will you still release the VA, WA and NC Republican primary numbers, as well as the North Carolina General Election numbers ?

Tom Jensen said...

NC general numbers yes, primary numbers for those states probably not since Huckabee and Trump dropped out. Things are too different now for those numbers to really be useful.

Anonymous said...

"NC general numbers yes, primary numbers for those states probably not since Huckabee and Trump dropped out. Things are too different now for those numbers to really be useful."

Please release at least the Washington primary numbers, because no pollster has polled the state so far and just to have the numbers as a benchmark.

If you could release VA too, that would be great.

North Carolina: Well, you poll it every month, so it doesn't matter.

Anonymous said...

Feingold is outperforming Obama's 2008 #s (in the sample), which is nice.

I Am Iron Man said...

Great news. I certainly hope Russ Feingold does run and does win. He was one of the best Senators we had... it shows the massive ignorance of the average voter that he was voted out in favor of some corporate lackey.

Web Statistics